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Thread: GDPNow GDP Estimates

  1. #1

    Default GDPNow GDP Estimates

    October 29, 2021

    Initial Estimate of Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Is 6.6 Percent

    On October 29, the initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 6.6 percent.

    The next GDPNow update is Monday, November 1.

    https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/rese...=cqer-research
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  3. #2

    Default Re: GDPNow GDP Estimates

    Good news... a surprise increase in GDP estimates from GDPNow.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

  4.  
  5. #3

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    Default Re: GDPNow GDP Estimates

    I think that increase in forecast GDP is simply a result of calculating in all the extra cash the federal reserve has dumped into the markets. So much cash- that the little guy got his hands on some, with those government payments- and now he’s spending on loads of Chinese import goods.

    The stock markets can only reflect the tons of cash dumped in.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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  7. #4

    Default Re: GDPNow GDP Estimates

    I think the stock market is a better indicator of "anticipated" money being pumped into the economy.
    The 2.0% GDP was low, according to many reports, because of dwindling stimulus payments being phased out, and this quarter hasn't seen any new money pumped in, the discussions of it are still a ways away from coming to fruition in Congress, and back in the summer everyone was pricing in an amount closer to the 3.5 Trillion, not half that amount.
    It seems GDP is picking up simply that the summer Covid increase, which slowed many economic sectors, has been waning in the past 2 months, both here and globally.

    Interestingly, if Q4 GDP is 8.2%, it would make the annual GDP growth for 2021 at 5.8%...the highest in 37 years (since 1984).
    CURRENTLY 50% C and 50% S (as of COB 11/22/2021) 2nd November IFT

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  9. #5

    Default Re: GDPNow GDP Estimates

    Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 8.5 Percent

    On November 4, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.5 percent, up from 8.2 percent on November 1.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

  10.  
  11. #6

    Default Re: GDPNow GDP Estimates

    November 10, 2021

    Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 8.2 Percent

    On November 10, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.2 percent, down from 8.5 percent on November 4.

    https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/rese...=cqer-research
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

  12.  
  13. #7

    Default Re: GDPNow GDP Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    November 10, 2021

    Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 8.2 Percent

    On November 10, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.2 percent, down from 8.5 percent on November 4.

    https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/rese...=cqer-research
    Amazing how these numbers fluctuate by the week.
    Question...is Q4 the "Fiscal Year" which ended Sep 30th...given that it takes 2 months or so to tabulate everything for an offical number, or is it by the traditional calendar (Oct-Dec)?
    CURRENTLY 50% C and 50% S (as of COB 11/22/2021) 2nd November IFT

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  15. #8

    Default Re: GDPNow GDP Estimates

    I believe it is traditional. Q4 = Oct. - Dec.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

  16.  
  17. #9

    Default Re: GDPNow GDP Estimates

    November 16, 2021

    Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 8.7 Percent

    On November 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.7 percent, up from 8.2 percent on November 10.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  19. #10

    Default Re: GDPNow GDP Estimates

    November 17, 2021


    Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 8.2 Percent


    On November 17, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.2 percent, down from 8.7 percent on November 16.

    https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

  20.  
  21. #11

    Default Re: GDPNow GDP Estimates

    November 24, 2021

    Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 8.6 Percent

    On November 24, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.6 percent, up from 8.2 percent on November 17.

    https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

  22.  
  23. #12

    Default Re: GDPNow GDP Estimates

    December 1, 2021

    Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 9.7 Percent


    On December 1, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 9.7 percent, up from 8.6 percent on November 24.

    https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/redirect-...%2Fgdpnow.aspx
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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