Thread: GDPNow GDP Estimates

Good news... a surprise increase in GDP estimates from GDPNow.

I think that increase in forecast GDP is simply a result of calculating in all the extra cash the federal reserve has dumped into the markets. So much cash- that the little guy got his hands on some, with those government payments- and now he’s spending on loads of Chinese import goods.

The stock markets can only reflect the tons of cash dumped in.


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I think the stock market is a better indicator of "anticipated" money being pumped into the economy.
The 2.0% GDP was low, according to many reports, because of dwindling stimulus payments being phased out, and this quarter hasn't seen any new money pumped in, the discussions of it are still a ways away from coming to fruition in Congress, and back in the summer everyone was pricing in an amount closer to the 3.5 Trillion, not half that amount.
It seems GDP is picking up simply that the summer Covid increase, which slowed many economic sectors, has been waning in the past 2 months, both here and globally.

Interestingly, if Q4 GDP is 8.2%, it would make the annual GDP growth for 2021 at 5.8%...the highest in 37 years (since 1984).

Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 8.5 Percent

On November 4, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.5 percent, up from 8.2 percent on November 1.

November 10, 2021

Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 8.2 Percent

On November 10, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.2 percent, down from 8.5 percent on November 4.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/rese...=cqer-research

Originally Posted by tsptalk

November 10, 2021

Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 8.2 Percent

On November 10, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.2 percent, down from 8.5 percent on November 4.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/rese...=cqer-research

Amazing how these numbers fluctuate by the week.
Question...is Q4 the "Fiscal Year" which ended Sep 30th...given that it takes 2 months or so to tabulate everything for an offical number, or is it by the traditional calendar (Oct-Dec)?

I believe it is traditional. Q4 = Oct. - Dec.

November 16, 2021

Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 8.7 Percent

On November 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.7 percent, up from 8.2 percent on November 10.

November 17, 2021


Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 8.2 Percent


On November 17, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.2 percent, down from 8.7 percent on November 16.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

November 24, 2021

Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 8.6 Percent

On November 24, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 8.6 percent, up from 8.2 percent on November 17.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

December 1, 2021

Fourth-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 9.7 Percent

On December 1, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 9.7 percent, up from 8.6 percent on November 24.

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/redirect-...%2Fgdpnow.aspx