GDP Trouble!

**tsptalk** · 09-16-2021, 09:58 AM

Did you know that the government doesn't report GDP numbers anymore? That's odd. But others still do, and there's something very wrong. They've recently been revised down dramatically.

Maybe I'm the last to know, but I guess it makes sense why the market peaked on September 2. I'll be writing more about this in Friday's commentary.

https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/d...kingSlides.pdf

Goldman was the most dramatic revision going from an estimate of +9.0% at the end of July to +3.5%.

**DreamboatAnnie** · 09-16-2021, 11:58 AM

Wow! That is news to me. What's going on.??

**mmk119** · 09-16-2021, 02:00 PM

wasn't there also something about how they've changed the way they calculate rate of inflation?

**tsptalk** · 09-16-2021, 02:57 PM

I hadn't heard that mmk, but it wouldn't surprise me.

**tsptalk** · 09-16-2021, 03:21 PM

Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie

Wow! That is news to me. What's going on.??

The inability to predict GDP growth accurately has just led the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to stop publishing its real time forecasts.

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...nuine-progress

They also recently stopped publishing M2 Money Supply figures.

https://www.stockinvestor.com/50573/...s-coming-back/

**tsptalk** · 09-17-2021, 11:35 AM

September 16, 2021

Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 3.6 Percent
On September 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.6 percent, down from 3.7 percent on September 10 after rounding.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, September 21.

On September 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.6 percent, down from 3.7 percent on September 10 after rounding.

Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 3.6 Percent

**nnuut** · 09-17-2021, 02:26 PM

I Think i know what's causing this stuff, but I can't talk about POLITICS! Polititions.jpg

**mmk119** · 09-17-2021, 03:00 PM

**tsptalk** · 09-28-2021, 12:58 AM

Latest estimate: 3.2 percent — September 27, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.2 percent on September 27, down from 3.7 percent on September 21.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/rese...=cqer-research

**tsptalk** · 10-04-2021, 12:56 PM

Wow, yet another drop in Q3 GDP estimate:

Latest estimate: 2.3 percent — October 1, 2021

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/rese...=cqer-research

**Boghie** · 10-04-2021, 02:36 PM

Maybe if taxes and regulation increase the GPD will recover. You never know

**tsptalk** · 10-19-2021, 07:59 PM

Wow...

Latest estimate: 0.5 percent — October 19, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 0.5 percent on October 19, down from 1.2 percent on October 15. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.9 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively.

Source: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

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