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Thread: GDP Trouble!

  1. #1

    Default GDP Trouble!

    Did you know that the government doesn't report GDP numbers anymore? That's odd. But others still do, and there's something very wrong. They've recently been revised down dramatically.

    Maybe I'm the last to know, but I guess it makes sense why the market peaked on September 2. I'll be writing more about this in Friday's commentary.



    https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/d...kingSlides.pdf


    Goldman was the most dramatic revision going from an estimate of +9.0% at the end of July to +3.5%.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  3. #2

    Default Re: GDP Trouble!

    Wow! That is news to me. What's going on.??
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 12-1-21= S60-C15-G25 /10-22=100%G/ 10-20=85G, 15C / 1-18=60G, 30C, 10-I / CandlesDef-see#3584, seasonality-see#3613

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  5. #3

    Default Re: GDP Trouble!

    wasn't there also something about how they've changed the way they calculate rate of inflation?

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  7. #4

    Default Re: GDP Trouble!

    I hadn't heard that mmk, but it wouldn't surprise me.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

  8.  
  9. #5

    Default Re: GDP Trouble!

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Wow! That is news to me. What's going on.??
    The inability to predict GDP growth accurately has just led the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to stop publishing its real time forecasts.
    https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...nuine-progress


    They also recently stopped publishing M2 Money Supply figures.

    https://www.stockinvestor.com/50573/...s-coming-back/
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #6

    Default Re: GDP Trouble!

    September 16, 2021

    Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 3.6 Percent
    On September 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.6 percent, down from 3.7 percent on September 10 after rounding.

    The next GDPNow update is
    Tuesday, September 21.

    On September 16, the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.6 percent, down from 3.7 percent on September 10 after rounding.

    Third-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Is 3.6 Percent
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

  12.  
  13. #7

    Join Date
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    Location
    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
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    Default Re: GDP Trouble!

    I Think i know what's causing this stuff, but I can't talk about POLITICS! Polititions.jpg
    11/30/2021
    LS CRUDE Oil
    =$66.18 a Barrel, Daily Status -3.77

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  15. #8

    Default Re: GDP Trouble!


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  17. #9

    Default Re: GDP Trouble!

    Latest estimate: 3.2 percent — September 27, 2021

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.2 percent on September 27, down from 3.7 percent on September 21.
    https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/rese...=cqer-research
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  19. #10

    Default Re: GDP Trouble!

    Wow, yet another drop in Q3 GDP estimate:

    Latest estimate: 2.3 percent — October 1, 2021

    https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/rese...=cqer-research

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #11

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,210

    Default Re: GDP Trouble!

    Maybe if taxes and regulation increase the GPD will recover. You never know
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  23. #12

    Default Re: GDP Trouble!

    Wow...

    Latest estimate: 0.5 percent — October 19, 2021

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 0.5 percent on October 19, down from 1.2 percent on October 15. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 0.9 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively.

    Source: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow


    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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