The labour-market recovery is likely to be slow, as key sectors such as leisure, hospitality and transport will only see consumer demand recover over a period of two to three years.
In addition, we expect average wages to fall in 2021 compared with 2020, as workers at the lower end of the wage scale (including in food service) find employment and weigh down the national average compared with 2020.
That said, we expect steady price inflation of around 2%, together with a recovery in the labour market, to push the US Federal Reserve (Fed, the central bank) to begin raising interest rates at the end of 2023.
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