Thread: Fed Talk

One of this week's main events starts tomorrow. Jerome Powell will testify in front of Congress and make his case for the FOMC's path to lower inflation. This may be a chance for investors to clarify what the latest economic data means to the Fed and their likely move in the following March meeting.

The second main event comes Friday. The February jobs report will be released, and it is a follow up to the January report that held concerning numbers for those worried about a too hot of an economy. We can imagine the Federal Reserve will also be watching closely with the investors.


Fed Chair Powell's testimony this week

Powell says rates are headed higher than expected

“The latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” Powell said in remarks prepared for two appearances this week on Capitol Hill. “If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/06/stoc...e-updates.html

Today we got a quick flip on projections for March FOMC meeting. The probability of the Fed not raising rates in the next FOMC meeting went from 0% to now 28% in one day.

On the flip side, the probability of the Fed raising rates by 0.50% in the next FOMC meeting went from 40% to 0% in one day.

Fed Rate Hike Probabilities

This of course has all to do with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the Fed's actions to prevent further damage and contain the problem.

Fed's Kashkari says stress in banking sector brings the U.S. closer to recession

Recent banking turmoil could bring the U.S. closer to a recession, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with CBS’ “Face The Nation.”

“What’s unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. And then that credit crunch, just as you said, would then slow down the economy,” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in an interview with CBS’ Face The Nation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/27/fed-...recession.html

Fed’s Bostic casts doubt on rate cuts this year even if there’s a recession

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Monday that he doesn’t foresee rate cuts at least through 2023, even if a widely forecast recession hits.
“If there’s going to be a bias to action, for me it would be a bias to increase a little further as opposed to cut,” he told CNBC.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also spoke to CNBC, saying he is taking a cautious approach to policymaking.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/15/feds...recession.html

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Fed’s Bostic casts doubt on rate cuts this year even if there’s a recession



https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/15/feds...recession.html

Good news I hope. Now we have to focus on the debt ceiling.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

Good news I hope. Now we have to focus on the debt ceiling.

The actual debt ceiling is like the actual minimum wage - but in reverse

That is, the politicians can play around with whatever numbers they want, but the debt ceiling will be the point at which investors elect to look elsewhere when they want to invest safely. Those investors are individuals, corporations, and countries. We do not know where the actual debt ceiling is - but it does appear we want to find it

Dallas Fed President Logan says current data doesn’t justify pausing rate hikes yet

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Thursday that the data points so far don’t justify skipping a rate hike in June.

“The data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting. As of today, though, we aren’t there yet,” she said in prepared remarks for a speech.

Fed Governor Philip Jefferson also said inflation is too high, but he’s watching to see the impact that the rate hikes will have on the economy before deciding on future moves.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/18/dall...hikes-yet.html

Watch Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speak live on monetary policy

Fed’s Kashkari says a June pause on rates wouldn’t indicate an end to hiking cycle

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on CNBC on Monday cautioned against reading too much into a June pause in the current rate-hiking cycle.
“If we were to skip in June, that does not mean we’re done with our tightening cycle. It means to me we’re getting more information,” he said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/22/feds...ing-cycle.html

Fed Minutes released from the previous Federal Open Markets Committees meeting in early May.

FOMC members held mixed opinions on where monetary policy should move next. Some want rates to pause going forward while others want to keep further rate hikes on the table if warranted.

Fed Officials Were Divided Over June Rate Pause