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Thread: Fed Talk

  1. #13

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    Default Re: Fed Talk

    The latest unemployment poll had some 2.8M Americans say they weren't going back to the workforce due to COVID fears, and that might have been before the latest variant. Those people would lift workforce participation by 1% if they joined in. We're currently around 1.7% below 2019 peak in employment.

    If the new variant causes "problems", then it's right for them to keep the liquidity going. If it's just a headline, then it will lend a case towards keeping the punch bowl out too long. Then again, rolling into winter season there's the thought that cases might go up again so, yeah, tough calls all around on when to slow it down. It's like we're always waiting for the next unemployment report as soon as the latest is released.

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  3. #14

    Default Re: Fed Talk

    There’s growing support within the Fed to announce the tapering of bond purchases in September

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/16/ther...september.html
    Tom
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  4.  
  5. #15

    Default Re: Fed Talk

    Wall Street Journal:

    Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022

    Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-off...hare_permalink
    Tom
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  7. #16

    Default Re: Fed Talk

    Federal Reserve preparing for taper this year, July minutes show

    The market now largely expects the committee or Chairman Jerome Powell to make an announcement about tapering in the next month or two, with the process likely to begin before the end of the year.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/18/fed-minutes-july.html
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

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  8.  
  9. #17

    Default Re: Fed Talk

    Fed Chairman Powell Navigates the Inflation Debate

    The Federal Reserve confers this week, and Mr. Powell is expected to clarify the central bank’s position. He battles internal dissension over how to proceed, and a haywire economic recovery hampered by the Delta variant.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-cha...hare_permalink
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

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  11. #18

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    Default Re: Fed Talk

    Going to be an awkward tapering discussion if it's being held remote due to Delta variant problems. They're no better guessers than any of us on when the tapering will begin. Much will depend on how humanity deals with COVID during the upcoming flu season in the northern hemisphere. Germs spread easier in the winter months and if numbers are up now, where will they be during cold & flu season? Many businesses can't afford to take another step back.


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  13. #19

    Default Re: Fed Talk

    Bullard says the Fed has to ‘get going’ on the taper, may need to get aggressive to stop inflation

    [QUOTE]St. Louis Fed President James Bullard says the central bank should have its tapering process finished by the end of March 2022.

    At that point, we’ll see “whether inflation has moderated,” he said. “If it hasn’t moderated, we’re going to have to be more aggressive to contain inflation.”

    Bullard, who spoke from the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference, said there’s some evidence the Fed’s bond-buying blitz has started to create bubbles in the U.S. housing market./QUOTE]

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/26/bull...inflation.html
    Tom
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  15. #20

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    Default Re: Fed Talk

    The only thing that matters is what the Fed Chair says, and that's Jerome Powell. From Bloomberg:

    *Powell: Premature Policy Tightening Now Could Be 'Particularly Harmful'

    *Powell: Acknowledges Recovery Has Seen 'Sharp' and Concerning Inflation Surge

    *Powell: Inflation Has Met Threshold to Open Door to Taper Process
    Tapering is all but certain. The more he talks lines like this, the more time the market has to adjust leaving the Fed with less work to do and less shock to the system. It's no different than when the Fed came out and said they'd start to buy corporate bonds in March 2020. Market participants front ran them and piled into LQD. The result was less actual intervention by the government.

    VIX is plunging, speculators are unwinding their bearish trades.

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  17. #21

    Default Re: Fed Talk

    Fed officials owned securities it was buying during pandemic, raising more questions about conflicts

    Amid an outcry about Federal Reserve officials owning and trading individual securities, an in-depth look by CNBC at officials’ financial disclosures found three who last year held assets of the same type the Fed itself was buying.
    .
    .
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    Among those questions: Should the Fed have banned officials from holding, buying and selling the same assets the Fed itself was buying last year when it dramatically widened the types of assets it would purchase in response to the pandemic?
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/17/fed-...conflicts.html
    Tom
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  19. #22

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    Default Re: Fed Talk

    Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said Monday he is stepping down from his position following a controversy over his stock holdings.

    Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, who had come under similar scrutiny, announced earlier in the day that he was retiring.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/27/dall...straction.html

    I'm not a fed watcher, so I've never heard of Rosengren. Kaplan though, he's a glory hound, always whining to the media. Good bye. Now they can both go and open their own hedge fund or private equity fund like Mnuchin.

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  21. #23

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    Default Re: Fed Talk

    The latest regarding inflation and unemployment from today's minutes.

    Various participants stressed that economic conditions were likely to justify keeping the rate at or near its lower bound over the next couple of years. In addition to noting that the economy was still well below maximum employment, several of these participants suggested that there would likely be sustained downward pressure on inflation in the years ahead.
    https://www.federalreserve.gov/monet...es20210922.htm

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  23. #24

    Default Re: Fed Talk

    Fed Prepares to Taper Stimulus Amid More Doubts on Inflation

    Broadening price pressures could test Chairman Jerome Powell’s ‘transitory’ hypothesis

    Federal Reserve officials are set to wind down their $120 billion-a-month bond-purchase program in November, but questions over how soon inflation pressures will fade are creating more uneasiness inside the central bank.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-pre...hare_permalink
    Tom
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