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Thread: Nonfarm payrolls fall well short of estimates

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    Default Nonfarm payrolls fall well short of estimates

    April’s expected hiring boom goes bust as nonfarm payroll gain falls well short of estimates

    Hiring was a huge letdown in April, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by a much less than expected 266,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% amid an escalating shortage of available workers.

    Dow Jones estimates had been for 1 million new jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.8%.

    There was more bad news: March’s originally estimated total of 916,000 was revised down to 770,000, though February saw an upward revision to 536,000 from 468,000.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/jobs...pril-2021.html
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  3. #2

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    Default Re: Nonfarm payrolls fall well short of estimates

    Big miss. I saw someone dub this as the most important jobs report in 8 years. A bit of an overstretch because that person will probably next say, "We'll have to see what next month' report brings."

    Fiscal stimulus is not transferring over to job creation and jobs is really the Fed's mandate. I'd also argue many will never enter the job market again as long as Universal Basic Income remains on the docket.

    What happens when the moratorium on rent expires? Will it ever expire? Nobody knows, and in the wacky world of stock markets, even knowing information ahead of time doesn't really matter. Stocks can beat and drop (AAPL) and bad unemployment can be construed as good while good numbers can be bad (less stimulus).

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    Default Re: Nonfarm payrolls fall well short of estimates

    I am hearing more about employers not being able to find people who are willing to work.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Big miss. I saw someone dub this as the most important jobs report in 8 years. A bit of an overstretch because that person will probably next say, "We'll have to see what next month' report brings."

    Fiscal stimulus is not transferring over to job creation and jobs is really the Fed's mandate. I'd also argue many will never enter the job market again as long as Universal Basic Income remains on the docket.

    What happens when the moratorium on rent expires? Will it ever expire? Nobody knows, and in the wacky world of stock markets, even knowing information ahead of time doesn't really matter. Stocks can beat and drop (AAPL) and bad unemployment can be construed as good while good numbers can be bad (less stimulus).
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.

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  7. #4

    Default Re: Nonfarm payrolls fall well short of estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by weatherweenie View Post
    I am hearing more about employers not being able to find people who are willing to work.
    I think we're in uncharted territory. Many businesses are gone and can't hire, but the ones that are around need help. Unfortunately there an incentive to not work with all of the stimulus available.

    As far as the market goes, who would have sold everything yesterday if they got a peak at the jobs report that was released this morning? I wouldn't have bet on a big rally in stocks. The dollar is down sharply again, and that is boosting prices of everything.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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    Default Re: Nonfarm payrolls fall well short of estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Unfortunately there an incentive to not work with all of the stimulus available.
    Is the stimulus really enough to motivate people not to work? I'm unfamiliar with what a family of four would receive on a monthly basis.
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.

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  11. #6

    Default Re: Nonfarm payrolls fall well short of estimates

    We'd have to look that up, but there are other factors like parents staying home because they don't want to send their kids to day care, or their day care shut down, etc. (COVID). I'm hearing a lot of theories but it's probably a combination of several factors. Like I said, uncharted territory.

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/05/0...bs-report.html
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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