Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 13 to 19 of 19

Thread: March Jobs Report -701,000

  1. #13

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    In Your Imagination...
    Posts
    4,353

    Default Re: March Jobs Report -701,000

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post

    It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the earnings reports in the coming weeks. The 1st quarter wasn't impacted until into March so the numbers may not be horrible, but the question is whether their negative guidance going forward is fully priced in.
    I wonder if companies will hold off as long as possible, given that the SEC has granted a 45-day extension to file?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wi...can-2020-03-31
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

  2.  
  3. #14

    Default Re: March Jobs Report -701,000

    Quote Originally Posted by LTJPFED View Post
    So then based on that April's numbers could be much worse? Just saying if it doesn't include the whole month of March.
    The 701,000 jobs lost up to March 12th is mostly the result of employers not hiring anymore. Regular job turnovers of employees moving from one job to the next halted leaving more workers stuck between jobs. April's report will reflect when nationwide shutdowns began and the layoffs followed.

  4.  
  5. #15

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,217
    Blog Entries
    12

    Default Re: March Jobs Report -701,000

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    They're still calling for double digit unemployment rate numbers before long so yeah, ww is right about it lagging. Of course by the time we see a 10% or 15% unemployment rate in the report in April or May (May / June releases), the market may have had that all priced in, and stocks could be climbing already. Especially if the virus numbers stabilize in the interim.
    ....

    I still, for the life of me, can't understand how you see anything remotely like stocks climbing in May/June. I see the next unemployment data report will have 10 million plus job losses, and high single to perhaps low double digit unemployment (8-11% unemployment next month is a real possibility. I'm seeing HUGE numbers, who haven't even been able to file yet for unemployment because the computers are down or jammed. Michigan's system for filing is designed for 5,000 filers a week. Last week it blew out after over 300,000 filers tried.

    I think we will see staggering numbers of deaths, and an increasingly desperate economy self-destructing all the way until at least August, and then I think it will be a veeeery slow recovery after that.

    I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see anything optimistic about the stock market for at least six months.

  6.  
  7. #16

    Default Re: March Jobs Report -701,000

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    I don't see anything optimistic about the stock market for at least six months.
    That sounds more like a wish list for you and Joe Biden. j/k

    I expect the market to start to rebound several months before the economy shows signs of recovering. Of course this could be a multi-year thing, so maybe it will be 6 months? I don't know. I'll take it week by week. Just remember the cycle of market emotions. "Optimism" comes half-way on the upside...

    Despondency
    Your expectations have been disappointed, you got a strong loss from your investments, you feel bad and you don’t want to buy a stock ever again. This is the point of maximum financial opportunity for investors that are aware of what is going on and are willing to be contrarians.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

  8.  
  9. #17

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
    Posts
    10,641

    Default Re: March Jobs Report -701,000

    A friend of mine, an ex Chicago cop, is saying friends of his in Chicago and Boston are afraid of civil unrest if this continues into late June and early July.
    May the force be with us.

  10.  
  11. #18

    Default Re: March Jobs Report -701,000

    Well, fast forwarding two months and obviously things have changed. Back then I was talking about despondency and said...

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    I expect the market to start to rebound several months before the economy shows signs of recovering. Of course this could be a multi-year thing, so maybe it will be 6 months? I don't know. I'll take it week by week. Just remember the cycle of market emotions. "Optimism" comes half-way on the upside...
    If I could only have listened to myself because I sold way too early after the initial bounce off the lows. But now where are we on the cycle of emotions chart? Is everybody on the opposite end of despondency now? Is it time to throw caution to the wind, or to realize that euphoria is upon us?

    The market is due for a rest, but when and how much? I wish I could tell you exactly. I just know it's inevitable. I just hope I'm smart enough to buy that pullback when it comes.

    Buy fear - sell euphoria.


    Posted in early April...
    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    I don't see anything optimistic about the stock market for at least six months.
    That sounds more like a wish list for you and Joe Biden. j/k

    I expect the market to start to rebound several months before the economy shows signs of recovering. Of course this could be a multi-year thing, so maybe it will be 6 months? I don't know. I'll take it week by week. Just remember the cycle of market emotions. "Optimism" comes half-way on the upside...

    Despondency
    Your expectations have been disappointed, you got a strong loss from your investments, you feel bad and you don’t want to buy a stock ever again. This is the point of maximum financial opportunity for investors that are aware of what is going on and are willing to be contrarians.
    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    That sounds more like a wish list for you and Joe Biden. j/k

    I expect the market to start to rebound several months before the economy shows signs of recovering. Of course this could be a multi-year thing, so maybe it will be 6 months? I don't know. I'll take it week by week. Just remember the cycle of market emotions. "Optimism" comes half-way on the upside...



    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.


  12.  
  13. #19

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,217
    Blog Entries
    12

    Default Re: March Jobs Report -701,000

    Uh-oh!!
    This just in:


    A 'misclassification error' made the May unemployment rate look better than it is.

    Source: Washington Post

    When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.

    The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that puts out the monthly jobs reports, said it was working to fix the problem.

    “BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue,” said a note at the bottom of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

    Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ication-error/


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

  14.  
Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
March Jobs Report -701,000
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
March Jobs Report -701,000
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
March Jobs Report -701,000
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
March Jobs Report -701,000
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes