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Thread: Yield Curve Watch

  1. #1

    Default Yield Curve Watch

    0.036 spread

  3. #2

    Default Re: Yield Curve Watch


  5. #3

    Default Re: Yield Curve Watch

    Main yield curve nearly inverts as 10-year yield tops 2-year rate by just 2 basis points

    The traditionally watched 2-year and 10-year Treasury curve is just 2 basis points away from inversion, a phenomenon heralded by many as a recession indicator.

    Yield curve inversions “predicted 7 out of 9 recessions during the post-war period.

  7. #4

    Default Re: Yield Curve Watch

    Noticed the 1 year yield is higher than the 2 and 10 year. Is that significant?

    Yield Curve.jpg
    CURRENTLY 100% C (as of COB 8/13/19) 2nd Aug IFT

  9. #5

    Default Re: Yield Curve Watch

    It may have happened overnight because the current quotes on CNBC aren't showing it inverted, but according to this CNBC article...

    Main yield curve inverts as 2-year yield tops 10-year rate, triggering recession warning

    The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was at 1.623%, below the 2-year yield at 1.634%.

    The last inversion of this part of the yield curve was in December 2005, two years before a recession brought on by the financial crisis hit.

    A recession occurs, on average, 22 months following such an inversion, according to Credit Suisse.

  11. #6

    Default Re: Yield Curve Watch

    Headlines may have investors over emphasizing and overreacting to the inverted yield curve. There are too many factors in the current globalized economy to be guided so intensely by a single indicator.

    Some economists have argued that the aftermath of quantitative easing measures that saw global central banks snap up government bonds and drive down longer term yields may have robbed inversions of their reliability as a predictor.
    5 things investors need to know about an inverted yield curve

  13. #7

    Default Re: Yield Curve Watch

    There it goes again...

    1:55 AM ET on Thursday morning


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