Thread: Yield Curve Watch

Originally Posted by tsptalk

That is odd, but at least there's no inversions right now between the 3-month, 2-year, and 10-year.

But the one month is paying as much as the 10-year.

I think the Inversions occur first, as a warning sign several months ahead of major downturn.
Once you're in the $hitstorm, the inversions start to go the other way....and are irrelevant at that point? I say that as a question mark, because I'm not an expert on them, just heard it several times in recent weeks, months on various market news shows.

Wow:

https://stockcharts.com/search/?sect...ols&q=treasury


30 day- = 0.79%
60 day = 0. 64%
90 day= 0. 45%
180 day= 0.41%

1 year = 0.39%
2 year= 0.49%
5 year = 0.58%
10 year = 0.74%
20 year = 1.09%
30 year= 1.25%


Dang! Time to go search for mortgage rates!

Bloomberg mentioned this Bank of America Fund Manager Survey today. A few good charts, here's one.

Lehman, 2008. I don't want to go there ever again.

bofa.JPG

2-year Treasury yield notches new 15-year high on better than expected jobs report

The 2-year Treasury note rose more than 9 basis points to hit a session high of 4.883%, its highest level since July 2007

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points to 4.285%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/04/us-b...rket-data.html

Yield Curve Inversion Reaches New Extremes


"Yields on longer-term U.S. Treasurys have fallen further below those on short-term bonds than at any time in decades, a sign that investors think the Federal Reserve is close to winning its inflation battle regardless of the cost to economic activity."

"Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dropped to 0.78 percentage point below that of the two-year yield, the largest negative gap since late 1981, at the start of a recession that pushed the unemployment rate even higher than it would later reach in the 2008 financial crisis."

Remember when an inverted yield curve used to be a problem? It's been inverted for a year and half now and it's not getting any better recently.

2-year / 10-year yield curve: