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If it's written, it's already baked into the market.
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This is a bad report BEWARE !!!!
I was thinking of jumping back in to the C Fund until I just read this report. It is only to let people know even with the market jump at the friday close on a rumor, even if true what happens to the market on the rest of this news. Who knows the market may spike this week but how much of a risk is really worth it. Just a FYI !!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...efer=worldwide
Spending Growth to Stall, Home Sales Down: U.S. Economy Preview
By Shobhana Chandra
Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending in the U.S. probably stayed at the weakest pace in six months in January as income growth slowed and Americans struggled with a deepening housing slump, economists said before reports this week.
Spending was up 0.2 percent, matching a gain in December that was the smallest since June, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Commerce Department's Feb. 29 report. Separate figures may show sales of new and previously owned homes fell last month.
Sluggish wage growth threatens to dent consumer spending, the main driver of the economy, and raise expectations for more Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts to prevent a recession. Manufacturing is slowing, house values are falling and consumer confidence is waning, other figures may show this week.
``People will be monitoring these reports for a recession scenario versus a slowdown scenario,'' said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC in Boulder, Colorado. ``We're skeptical of the story that consumers will pull back en masse. Everyone's pretty much braced for poor numbers in housing.''
Incomes rose 0.2 percent in January, the smallest gain in three months, according to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey.
The income report may also show a price gauge tied to spending patterns and excluding food and energy costs, the Fed's preferred measure, rose 0.2 percent for a fourth month, economists in the survey projected. The index probably gained 2.2 percent from January 2007.
Producer Prices
Inflation concerns may be reinforced by the Labor Department's producer price report on Feb. 26. Inflation at the wholesale level jumped 0.3 percent in January, after a drop in December, the Bloomberg survey showed.
Accelerating price pressures give the Fed less room to keep cutting interest rates to ward off a recession. Still, ``we can count on another policy easing by the Fed in March,'' Action Economics' Englund said.
Policy makers last week signaled they're prepared to quickly reverse January's interest-rate cuts, while concluding borrowing costs need to be kept low for now. The Fed lowered the rate by 0.75 percentage point on Jan. 22 in an unscheduled decision and by a half point at the regular meeting Jan. 30.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who has warned policy will have to be ``calibrated'' over the next year to meet both inflation and growth objectives, will testify before Congress on Feb. 27-28 on the central bank's outlook.
Home Sales
One source of concern for the Fed is the worst housing slump in a quarter century. The National Association of Realtors may report tomorrow that January sales of existing homes fell 1.8 percent to a 4.81 million annual rate, the Bloomberg survey median shows. Existing-home purchases account for 85 percent of the market.
New home sales, which account for the rest of the market, dropped 0.7 percent to an annual pace of 600,000 last month, the third consecutive drop, according to the Bloomberg survey median. The Commerce Department will report the figures Feb. 27.
Sales of new homes are viewed as a leading indicator of the market because they are tabulated when a contract is signed. Existing-home sales reflect contract closings, which typically come a month or two later.
The glut of unsold properties is pushing prices lower. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, scheduled for release Feb. 26, may show prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 9.8 percent in December from a year earlier. The decrease, the 12th in a row, was the biggest since the group started keeping year- over-year records in 2001.
GDP Revisions
The housing market ``clearly continues to be in a very difficult position,'' Ara Hovnanian, chief executive officer of homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Feb. 21.
The Commerce Department's revised figures for gross domestic product on Feb. 28 will reflect the drag from homebuilding. The economy, teetering on the edge of a recession, expanded at an annual rate of 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bloomberg survey median shows, faster than the initially reported 0.6 percent pace.
Manufacturing also is becoming more vulnerable to slowing demand, Commerce figures may show on Feb. 27. Orders for durable goods plunged 4 percent in January after surging in December, according to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey.
Re: This is a bad report BEWARE !!!!
If it's written, it's already baked into the market.
Re: This is a bad report BEWARE !!!!
I don't know this report came out today 2/24/08 on Bloomberg.com there isn't anything that would move the market higher according to this report all this news will come out this week. If all of it is correct the market will have serious problems and what if half of it is right it may still fall. The Ambac bailout is supposed to be the good news for the week. I was going 100% C Fund for the quick hit possibly on Tuesday/Wednesday on the news then get out. It's the only way to make money pick your spots and run to G Fund. My problem is risk is extreme in this market and any bad news is always a 100+ point drop. I look at Friday on a rumor the market makes a 200+ point swing. It moves that fast will low volume. Scary !!!Originally Posted by Bullitt
Re: This is a bad report BEWARE !!!!
I hear ya man. The thing is, the analysts of major firms have been predicting those numbers long before it was written, so the ones that move the market already have a leg up on the ones who have to rely on Bloomberg. Generally, if the numbers come in better than expected, the market goes up. If they come in worse, it goes down.
The market has been hammered recently, and cash levels keep rising just as Money Market yields continue to drop. Most investors are pricing in the worst case scenario, which is why merely a rumor of a bailout reversed Friday's bear raid. In a bearish setting such as the one we currently are in, it's going to take unexpectedly bad news to move the market lower.
All the bad news comes out at the bottom just as all the good comes out at the top.
Re: This is a bad report BEWARE !!!!
Very true if this is already figured in and there is a better report then the market will jump much like it did last week but I look back at last thursday and on one report the market dropped 142 points (philly fed) and at one point was down 170+ I believe. Last thursday the markets actually opened up then the 1st report was worse than expected and that was it. I was in the I fund and it closed with no change because the foreign markets had a great day. So that was a worse than expected day which we seem to be having at a rate of about 80% in 2008. Best of Luck to all this week !!!I hear ya man. The thing is, the analysts of major firms have been predicting those numbers long before it was written, so the ones that move the market already have a leg up on the ones who have to rely on Bloomberg. Generally, if the numbers come in better than expected, the market goes up. If they come in worse, it goes down.
The market has been hammered recently, and cash levels keep rising just as Money Market yields continue to drop
All the bad news comes out at the bottom just as all the good comes out at the top.
Re: This is a bad report BEWARE !!!!
This is what I was worried about with a move to the C Fund today and on the news the market jumps 200 points but for those who were making an IFT today with the news for the rest of the week this could drop in a flash. I was thinking I Fund because tomorrow will get a big jump from the foreign markets. Maybe getting burned so many times I stayed right in the G Fund.
Re: This is a bad report BEWARE !!!!
This was what I was warning about the market drops in a flash. There is so much bad news I could not figure how it was possible for the market to gain this week, yet somehow it did where it goes now I have no idea. I stayed out into the G Fund but next week (monday) I am 50 G & 50 F.
Re: This is a bad report BEWARE !!!!
You obviously have a lot more courage than I do playing in that F fund.
Re: This is a bad report BEWARE !!!!
LMAO - I lost my courage in the C,S and I maybe i'll get it back in the F Fund. My timing for the C,S and I has been terrible and if the F fails then it will be liquid courage. Good Luck
Re: This is a bad report BEWARE !!!!
If one of the Moderators wants to remove this thread it was a warning on 2/24/08 I think anyone who read it already has seen it enough - Thank you
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