Thread: S&P 500 Past Performance

Based on historical statistics, Friday shows a negative bias.

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Based on historical statistics, Monday shows a negative bias.

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Here's an example of how these stats are read, these are not current

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Seasonal prediction seems to failed us this week.

Originally Posted by law87

Seasonal prediction seems to failed us this week.

Strong seasonal patterns should be looked at while keeping the Linear Regression principle in mind. If price sways too strongly in one direction, it eventually must balance out and come back to the line. While the winning ratio on Tuesday & Wednesday was not right, the size of the moves were (when looking at the average positive/negative gains.) For myself, I try to step back and look at stats from a distant view, for me it's a single tool, we still have the charts to look at the here & now

Going back to 1950, of the 16,000 plus trading days, today's -2.09% loss ranks in the bottom 2 percentile.

With the chart below, statistically speaking this Friday's winning ratio is split even with the average positive/negative gains higher than the norm. Based on this data, I would expect to see a +/-1% day tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by JTH

... I would expect to see a +/-1% day tomorrow.

So...your guess is up or down.

Originally Posted by JTH

Going back to 1950, of the 16,000 plus trading days, today's -2.09% loss ranks in the bottom 2 percentile.

With the chart below, statistically speaking this Friday's winning ratio is split even with the average positive/negative gains higher than the norm. Based on this data, I would expect to see a +/-1% day tomorrow.

Attachment 28095


Attachment 28096

Originally Posted by userque

So...your guess is up or down.

I'm going to go on a limb today and guess the direction will be down

Originally Posted by JTH

I'm going to go on a limb today and guess the direction will be down

Paraphrasing Mel Brooks, my fellow tribesman:

The correc-tion, here we go, the corec-tion, what a show, I'll bet your wishin' that it'd go away, but the correc-tion is here and it's here to stay.......

Originally Posted by JTH

I'm going to go on a limb today and guess the direction will be down

Good Guess!!

You were right on the down call, but off by .06%. Try harder next time. Seriously, congrats.

Originally Posted by JTH

I'm going to go on a limb today and guess the direction will be down