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Thread: S&P 500 Past Performance

  1. #13

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    Default Re: S&P 500 Past Performance

    Based on historical statistics, Thursday shows a positive bias.

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  3. #14

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    Default Re: S&P 500 Past Performance

    Based on historical statistics, Friday shows a negative bias.

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  5. #15

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    Default Re: S&P 500 Past Performance

    Based on historical statistics, Monday shows a negative bias.

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  7. #16

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    Default Re: S&P 500 Past Performance

    Here's an example of how these stats are read, these are not current

    Attachment 28073

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  9. #17

    Default Re: S&P 500 Past Performance

    Seasonal prediction seems to failed us this week.

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  11. #18

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    Default Re: S&P 500 Past Performance

    Quote Originally Posted by law87 View Post
    Seasonal prediction seems to failed us this week.
    Strong seasonal patterns should be looked at while keeping the Linear Regression principle in mind. If price sways too strongly in one direction, it eventually must balance out and come back to the line. While the winning ratio on Tuesday & Wednesday was not right, the size of the moves were (when looking at the average positive/negative gains.) For myself, I try to step back and look at stats from a distant view, for me it's a single tool, we still have the charts to look at the here & now
    Last edited by JTH; 04-10-2014 at 12:05 PM.


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  13. #19

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    Default Re: S&P 500 Past Performance

    Going back to 1950, of the 16,000 plus trading days, today's -2.09% loss ranks in the bottom 2 percentile.

    With the chart below, statistically speaking this Friday's winning ratio is split even with the average positive/negative gains higher than the norm. Based on this data, I would expect to see a +/-1% day tomorrow.

    Attachment 28095

    Attachment 28096

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  15. #20

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    Default Re: S&P 500 Past Performance

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    ... I would expect to see a +/-1% day tomorrow.
    So...your guess is up or down.
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

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  17. #21

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    Default Re: S&P 500 Past Performance

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Going back to 1950, of the 16,000 plus trading days, today's -2.09% loss ranks in the bottom 2 percentile.

    With the chart below, statistically speaking this Friday's winning ratio is split even with the average positive/negative gains higher than the norm. Based on this data, I would expect to see a +/-1% day tomorrow.

    Attachment 28095


    Attachment 28096
    Quote Originally Posted by userque View Post
    So...your guess is up or down.
    I'm going to go on a limb today and guess the direction will be down

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  19. #22

    Default Re: S&P 500 Past Performance

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    I'm going to go on a limb today and guess the direction will be down
    Paraphrasing Mel Brooks, my fellow tribesman:

    The correc-tion, here we go, the corec-tion, what a show, I'll bet your wishin' that it'd go away, but the correc-tion is here and it's here to stay.......
    Last edited by jonfresno; 04-11-2014 at 03:01 PM.

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  21. #23

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    Default Re: S&P 500 Past Performance

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    I'm going to go on a limb today and guess the direction will be down
    Good Guess!!
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

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  23. #24
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    Default Re: S&P 500 Past Performance

    You were right on the down call, but off by .06%. Try harder next time. Seriously, congrats.

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    I'm going to go on a limb today and guess the direction will be down

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