Thread: C-fund

The bull market is looking forward as it always does - especially to November 2010 when we'll get change we can count on. That's the real reality.

Originally Posted by James48843

Facts are facts:
When our President was sworn into office on January 20, 2009, the S&P 500 closed at 805.22, and was headed down. The price of a share of C fund in the TSP was $9.31.

I won't credit him for the rally, but I will give him credit for something even better - calling the bottom. Almost to the day of the bottom in March Obama said it is probably a good time to be buying stocks.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

I won't credit him for the rally, but I will give him credit for something even better - calling the bottom. Almost to the day of the bottom in March Obama said it is probably a good time to be buying stocks.

Good point. He said that on March 3rd:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/poli...deals_the.html

James,

We will see.

I mean the former occupant of the White House gave us a 91% market gain for a big chunk of his Presidency!!!

I got my $13/pay period. It was nice, but not overwhelming. Paid for half my beer purchases on dart night. However, I don't think it spurred the stock market by 67%. That is the only break I got. Do I get it this year as well? My dad - a small business owner - got nada from any of those tax changes. He didn't spend last year rolling in gold. For me, 2011 will result in a $110 loss in income per pay period (two weeks). As I adjust to that fact I will affect the economy and the market. As a matter of fact I am listening to a financial planning show on the radio as I type. They are emphasizing tax management to adjust to President Obama's changes.

I, for one, expected a rebound to a new neutral. Nothing in the 57% decline made sense. However, the new neutral seems to be at 72% of the former high. Note the two month plateau. From here, my guess is anemic GDP growth, minimal equity growth (with moderate swings), continued growth in unemployment, and a mysterious decline in profit as corporations and investors adjust to changes in dividend and capital gains tax treatments. That does not bode well for 2010.

Anyway, didn't you spend an awful lot of time in the G Fund for someone exuding such confidence? I mean, you were largely in the G Fund for a hundred calendar days, 27% of the year. Earlier, say 2007, you spent far more time in the market. What gives.

If GDP grows robustly (at least 3.5%, hopefully in the more normal 5% - 8% range for a recovery), the market grows by 10%, and unemployment falls to 6% in 2010 than I am with you.

Have some confidence.
There is hope and change.

Personally,

As stated in the 2010 prediction thread, I figure an amazing 3% growth in the C Fund for 2010.

There will be swings as the FED increases interest rates and tries to sell off its holdings and the dollar gains strength. Then, toward the end of the year folks in after tax accounts will sell out their profitable holdings to lock in 15% capital gains and dividends rates.

Thus, the C Fund - in my mind on the second day of the year - will churn to a very low return. I think the S Fund will do likewise. The I Fund will probably do worse.

That ain't looking to hopeful, but a slow adjusting trading method will probably double the return. Just a guess.

Boghie,

Can you provide your logic for the prediction on the Fund I? Thanks.

Originally Posted by James48843
I have yet to hear anyone make note of the "Obama rally". But facts are that the market HAS done well so far.
Let us "hope" for more positive things to happen for the market in 2010.
I like that kind of "hope".

Does this include giving him credit that there was no increase in my everyday Cost Of Living these past 12 months - the year 2009?
Just that alone is an amazement, especially since I've received notice that some bills are increasing d/t they `won't be able to make it' on the amounts received from me this very same past year!! I used to
think that any COLA given was to enable those companies to increase their fees, etc. But I have been brought up short in that belief - cuz insurances, etc, all went up without giving me the COLA! Fascinating!!!

Originally Posted by wwwtractor

Boghie,

Can you provide your logic for the prediction on the Fund I? Thanks.

These are conjectures - so you (The I of Sauron) and the Nazgul Nine) shouldn't take anything out of it if you differ:

• The I Fund is Japan and Europe - not BRIC
• Bernanke will raise interest rates
• The dollar will strengthen
• The EU is wobbly
• Japan -

And, the biggest factor:

You will beat me like a red headed step sister with my 3 diversified allocation strategy if the I Fund outperforms again

Nice hunting this year!!!

Hope you didn't mind the whole Tolkien thang this year. For the entire year you and nine other folks kept moving like a guided whole. At some point one of the Nine was disappeared - but, still fun.

Originally Posted by Boghie

but, still fun.

All valid points and I whole heartily agree with you. I can't look too far into the future but based on Japan and the Dollar I can easily see the I-fund under-performing in the 1st quarter.

The last quarter showed the Yen taking a nose dive and the dollar gaining considerable ground.
Attachment 7824

Also, while the S&P 500 has retraced 50% off the March bottom, when you compare it with the Nikkei Index you can see Japan's market is indeed much weaker. Since Japan is the I-fund's most heavily weighted market, and the Dollar is gaining strength, I believe the I-Fund will suffer more than the C&S, until this picture changes.
Attachment 7825

This is where we start the year-2010.

With the S&P 500 at 1115.10.

Good luck.

Attachment 7827

Stock Traders Alminac sez the first five day rule is almost a contrary indicator in a midterm election year. In 15 midterm years only 7 followed the indicator correctly.

The last 36 up first five days were followed by full year gains 31 times.