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Thread: C-fund

  1. #13

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    stebbins777,

    The objective now should be to ride the bull for as long as you can. Remain cognizant that the good times will eventually end - like in 2000 - 2001-2002. Move the bulk of your funds to shelter and continue with the dollar cost averaging using fate to provide guidance. Buy going down and buy coming back - sounds simple enough but placing the bulk cash is the difficult part. No one knows how long this current move will last - always be on guard. But it may conceivabley last for several years with only minor interruptions. I have my own strategy in place and will start getting out many months and points down the road - one needs an escape hatch.

    The bigger question is - are we in the later stages of a cyclical bull move that will end in the fall, or are we at the start of a new secular bull market that will last for years? I'm inclined toward the secular move - but am pretty much alone at this point. I think Teknobucks may be leaning in the secular direction with support from historical TA.

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  3. #14

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    Gallo1,

    I'll try and answer some of your questions. The sp500 is just now putting in several 4 year highs - these are not new all-time highs. We are at 1229 on the index, the peak was in 2000 at 1527. The small cap R2K is putting in 7 year all-time new highs. The SPX is now regarded as the new value play because it is undervalued and has been the underperformer since who can remember? The $13.22 price is cheap in comparison to the S fund and the I fund. Over the next 6 - 12 months the C fund may very well outperform the others.That's why I've chosen to own it.

    If you have a multi-thousands of share position like some of us salty dogs, it is always prudent to eventually seek shelter from any large storms in the future - such as the next recession. Small positions give you flexibility to absorb minor losses and keep on dollar cost averaging. I would ride the bottom all day long with dollar cost averaging - buying on the lows - there is nothing more satisfying than causing one self pain buying at low prices. My current objective will be to lighten my load on a consistent basis if the sp500 comes anywhere close to 1700 on the index. Can you visualize how difficult this process will be - giving up profit on the way up. It does require discipline to sacrifice greed. I hope at some point in your future you get the opportunity to feel the greed factor - greed is good - but only to a certain extent.

    If you are so darn unlucky to hit a down patch before you retire- and it can easily happen to anyone - be prepared to not take money out at that time. Use time to your advantage - wait until the upside returns - remember you are in control of your destiny. We will all be looking over our shoulders for the next significant downside. I'm still on the come back trail from my oceanic account which took a 900 point hit. The downsides will come in many forms, some as head fakes, some will blind side you, and frankly some will try to clean you out. Some corrections will be welcome for better pricing- folks are waiting for one now to get in - they may have missed the train and will have to pay up to play. Other downsides will require courage to hold the line and take the pain. TSP gives you the advantage of moving 100% without consequent taxes, if you end up being premature just come back at a later time. Let the fun times begin - this really should be fun even though it's a serious matter.

    Dennis











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  5. #15

    Post imported post

    Just my 2 cents worth to the original poster. If you want to just throw your money in the TSP and not look at it I would suggest an L Fund rather than all C. Since you are asking here and have some interest I would suggest you decide what asset alloaction you like and going with that. At your age I might do something like 70% C, 10% S, I & G. You will have less volitility and get some returns from different asset classes. I currently don't like the F fund as I expect it to drop as interest rates go up but I have been saying that for some time now and it has done better than I expected but not good enough for me to love it.
    Now I really appreciate the folks trying to day trade the TSP (Two Day Trade?) and beat the market. They are open in their methodology and general lack of significant success. But it is in an interesting experiment.

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  7. #16

    Post imported post

    Thanks for the reply, You were close. I actually did 79% C and 21% S and my balance is going up, up, up rather quickly. Someone else made this suggestion and it made good sense. Then I asked around my workplace and a fewothers had the same idea, so it must be worth something. It's working for me. I don't like the L funds, but they are great for someone who's not realy into the TSP and just wants to ignore it. For me, the TSPis my cabin on the lake. God bless.

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  9. #17

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  11. #18

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    Default Re: C-fund

    Can the S&P fill the breakout gap and head to the upper channel line ... ~1.30% more from yesterday's close at $14.71. I think euphoria is still spreading and has enough steam through early October... even to carry a little past any end of qtr window dressing... unless it reaches that today and tomorrow. The shorter term rising wedge was broken giving way to the stronger longer-term pattern. I'm starting to think it will go $14.90'ish in the next week. I tried to attach a chart but it exceeded the capacity.


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  13. #19

    Default Re: C-fund

    Quote Originally Posted by fedgolfer View Post
    Can the S&P fill the breakout gap and head to the upper channel line ... ~1.30% more from yesterday's close at $14.71. I think euphoria is still spreading and has enough steam through early October... even to carry a little past any end of qtr window dressing... unless it reaches that today and tomorrow. The shorter term rising wedge was broken giving way to the stronger longer-term pattern. I'm starting to think it will go $14.90'ish in the next week. I tried to attach a chart but it exceeded the capacity.
    She extended out and I don't believe she will make it....look for today as its final hurrah for a bit....
    The Technician (escapades at times as Carnac)

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  15. #20

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    Default Re: C-fund

    As requested by robo555 and sponsor...
    Attachment 1120

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  17. #21

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    Default Re: C-fund

    I feel its running out of steam. Will fall-

    If not tomorow, then within a day or two. I think we're at a peak.

    Just my humble opinion.

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  19. #22

    Default Re: C-fund

    With all the hype of new highs, the only fund up today was the C fund by a modest .03. The fact that the S fund fell confirms we are seeing some internal weakness in the market. But there's no telling how long the big cap indices will rally in spite of internal weakness.

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  21. #23

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    Default Re: C-fund

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    I feel its running out of steam. Will fall-

    If not tomorow, then within a day or two. I think we're at a peak.

    Just my humble opinion.
    I agree James. I think the S&P will bring the rest of the market with it. So even though S & I look enticing I'm on the sideline. Tom's right, we could see euphoria for a few more days/even weeks.

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  23. #24

    Default Re: C-fund

    Another negative divergence --, in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), down volume was greater than up on Tuesday, which is a sign of distribution near the end of an advance. --

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