Thread: P&F Chart School

Originally Posted by James48843

Gut tells me higher tomorrow, then lower Friday and maybe even monday. We'll see.

Well, today went just about as I expected. Ended up, but only slightly. I think tomorrow will be a profit taking day in the S&P, but probably only a little bit.

Let's recap then where we stand today in the S&P 500 chart:

Attachment 2719

That big, bright red line overhead is still there. That's the Bearish resistance line, and we are below it, so we don't jump onto what normally in an up market would be the buy signals. We sit tight, and wait for a better entry point, as the Price Objective remains unchanged, and we're still not sure if the downside is finished. All the trading continues so far within that downside track. Although I am the first to admit that the up yesterday was at least a full block X higher than I was expecting it to be- which is good- an indicator that there is money out there ready to come back in once we're sure we've changed direction.

The red Bearish Resistance line and the blue Bullish Support line are now converging soon. One of them is going to be the breakout. Will it be a break down, towards our Price Objective, or will it be a break to the upside?

Normally, I'd bet on lower ahead. But the nice 10% correction cleaned out a lot of folks, and sets us up well for the future.

My gut says: tomorrow lower, but not by a lot. Maybe 10-15 lower on the S&P 500. Unless there is some outside news that influences, I'd say it will only be a slight down.

Somebody asked me when I planned on buying back in. A couple days ago I was thinking around 1350-60. Now, looking at where we're at, the next down cycle could very well be in the 1380-90 range. That would be the six to eight units down we've been tracking with the last couple swings. So I think if we get in this area soon, I may just jump back in. After all, we're about to enter a new month, and I'll have to practice my "two trade a month limit" theories, and see if they will work.

We'll see tomorrow, if we end up with a slightly lower close on the day. My thought is- 1445-1450 on the close tomorrow.

Hello James,
Good to be back. See I missed alot - maybe a good thing. Not sure next week will hold, may see retest -at least my hope since I'm still in G (no TV/news/internet up in the PA hills).

Anyway, a question for class:
Looking at several p&f charts now, many seem that the Red Bearish Resistance Lines do not disappear - they just get maybe broken (with Xs) passed or supassed, but remain. Wherein a new Bullisish Support (blue) line appears and passes the red. Is this normal (that the red lines remain)? Below is an example (Friday's S-Fund), of what I'm trying to ask about.

Please also let me know if you see anything else suggesting S may be improving (I note the 2 new Xs closing on the red line.).
Attachment 2732

Originally Posted by hessian

Hello James,
Good to be back. See I missed alot - maybe a good thing. Not sure next week will hold, may see retest -at least my hope since I'm still in G (no TV/news/internet up in the PA hills).

Anyway, a question for class:
Looking at several p&f charts now, many seem that the Red Bearish Resistance Lines do not disappear - they just get maybe broken (with Xs) passed or supassed, but remain. Wherein a new Bullisish Support (blue) line appears and passes the red. Is this normal (that the red lines remain)? Below is an example (Friday's S-Fund), of what I'm trying to ask about.

Please also let me know if you see anything else suggesting S may be improving (I note the 2 new Xs closing on the red line.).
Attachment 2732

You asked "Is this normal?"

the answer is yes. the lines stay on the chart as we move forward.

Then you ask "...you see anyting else suggesting the S may be improving?"


We are still within the range- between the blue and red lines. Those lines are pointing to each other, so we will have more up and down movements until it breaks out one side or the other.

Under P&F chart theory, we should be sitting on the sidelines now. I threw my hands up on Friday and jumped back in, although the charts are showing a "wait and see" position. I'm sure I will lose as a result of my happy trigger finger last friday.

Anyway, that's what the P&F charts are saying. They are saying we are not yet in a steady direction, so keep to the sidelines and wait.

James,
I know how busy you are, with website trying to save all our butts (our IFT rights). Hopefully you can espouse capability to DCA is critical (vs their "day-trading" view).

Anyway, thought I'd just post today's SPX p&F chart. I expect, no tactics change is indicated (yet), but its look is kinda interesting...
VR
Attachment 2762

Originally Posted by hessian

Hi James,
- noticed today's reversal in the p&f charts for $SPX [and also interesting change in $EMW] (EFA & $MSEAFE unchanged/still positive). Thought others may find it intriguing, since its based on technicals - not Fed/Rate cut speculations!!
VR
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/S...$SPX,P&listNum=
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/S...$EMW,P&listNum= (not quite reversed yet, close, but notice the PO!)

What a cliff hanger! Looks like the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 is right at 673 (or 674 depending on where you get the quote) which is the reversal point, right? How many points above that does it have to go in order for P&F to consider it BULL move? May be tomorrow we will see that solid blue support line trending up, do you think?

Originally Posted by ayla

What a cliff hanger! Looks like the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 is right at 673 (or 674 depending on where you get the quote) which is the reversal point, right? How many points above that does it have to go in order for P&F to consider it BULL move? May be tomorrow we will see that solid blue support line trending up, do you think?

Hi Ayla,
First, I need to note that I'm just a student, like you!
James has apparently been busy, so I'll try to help. OK, the $EWM is still not there yet with that red line still overhead. But note below, yesterday's $SPX chart (yesterday it filled all the blank spaces up to pass the red line w/ a new top X wearing that funny little red hat) - then suddenly today, ca-ching, the SPX got its confirmation, a new Blue Bullish line formed! (also that funny little red hat blew away)

Now, for the S chart ($EMW), first thing to know is: the numbers on the right move - even throughout a day, so watch those, but don't put much weight on those numbers. The cool thing today was that new Xs filled in blank spaces right up to the red line. Now this doesn't mean anything in itself - we're still under the red Bearish Resistance line - BUT, the PO (Price Objective) did suddenly move!: from being a red number, far below - to now a GREEN number, a good bit above!! I'm uncertain about what this means, except that now I want to watch more frequently - seems certain that something positive MIGHT be brewing. To me, it was these little oddities that gave me clues to think we may be close, and to watch more often! (the SPX chart below worked into its Bearish Reversal by noon the next day!)

For the S, $EMW chart, suggest, check the link provided a couple times a day - it could only need a few points up, that could give us those Xs breaking atop the red line, and that new, blue Bullish Support line to form!! Again, until we do, we are still technically under Bearish Resistance on this one.
VR

Hessian:

Thanks- yes I have been very , very , very busy with the other task.

But you are absolutely right. We broke the red line onto the high side Thursday, and that signals the reversal.
A techincal indicator of better times ahead. Now, we MAY have a down day or two, but overall the chart looks very, very good for a postive future.


I actually went full into stocks at the beginning of the week, so I got the gain this week. (Thank goodness), but this technical also tells me that the new price objective is that we have higher above, and we're going in a postive direction again.

Back to the other subject-
We'll keep focusing on the DCA implications as one of the prime points to stress. No one can aruge that Dollar Cost Averaging is bad for folks.

Pretty good success for a new organization so far. More than 300 signatures on the petition, but we need LOTS more before we deliver them. So spread the word around your place of work, to visit http://tspshareholder.org and sign the petition.

thanks

Here is the new P&F Chart. The new bullish price objective is 1720.

We have a lot of upside ahead, according to this. I'm fully in right now, and will ride the good ride.

Attachment 2781

Pretty clear indication of an upside breakthrough. If you are not already in stocks, I think you'll have some more opportunities to buy in shortly. It looks like the new lower side resistance points are going to be around 1430-1440, so if we get a dip at all, say into the 1470 or less range, that is a good time to begin loading up. If you are already in, just stay put for a while, because this is going to be a good ride. We COULD be back in the mid 1550s by Christmas.

The regular disclaimer:
As always- no one knows what the markets will do for sure. This is not advice, nor an offer to buy or sell anything. I don't tell people when to buy or sell. I have no knowledge of the future. If you want someone to complain about, Consult with a real financial planner - not me. This is not an offer to give advice, nor is it advice. No small animals were harmed in the posting of this message. If you click on the wrong button, you have to take responsibility for what you do. I would rather be on the beach at retirement than defending myself in court, so I won't tell you which fund or funds to invest in. You are on your own, and it's your own decision. There. I think I covered them all.

Oh, and yeh, I almost forgot this one: "Except in Nebraksa."

Have a good weekend.

James:

Have you been following this P&F chart for long? I am just starting to look at charting, and while the other types of chart allow you to compare past performance, this one doesn't. From your experience, whenever there is a turnaround with a bullish revised number, how well does the market follow it? I saw the turnaround on the DOW 12900, which is pretty much right on the dot, but that was my only experience.

Thanks for all the free training

Originally Posted by RPM

James:
Have you been following this P&F chart for long? I am just starting to look at charting, and while the other types of chart allow you to compare past performance, this one doesn't. From your experience, whenever there is a turnaround with a bullish revised number, how well does the market follow it? I saw the turnaround on the DOW 12900, which is pretty much right on the dot, but that was my only experience.
Thanks for all the free training

RPM, James isn't too likely to reply because he's very, very busy, with new website/petition -trying to save all our butts (our IFT rights). I'll try to answer your question - take it for what its worth. (I started as a student w/ this thread - and recomend reading it all from the start.
First p&f charts remove the element of time (focus is to identify trends.)
Below attached is the Dec 7, "S" chart (well, EFA anyway) - it gives a little different picture than the $SPX - as EFA is currently teetering on a posssible Bullish breakout - called a "Traditional Triple Top Breakout"Pattern/Traditional Triple Top Breakout (& consequently note the new "Prelim. Bullish PO")/
Attachment 2783
Still however, until those Xs break atop the red line, and a new, blue Bullish Support line to forms under this, we are still technically under Bearish Resistance on this one.
Read reply to Ayla below, and maybe work to catch-up in meantime!
(And note, there is a '07 mark along bottom, and, the numbers in the chart indicated the LAST day of a particular month, but more as just an FYI - not meant to compare past performance!)
Return to this link a couple times a day to watch for changes, like Monday/Tues:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/S...EMW,P&listNum=
And, along the chart bottom, review the various "Instructions," "about p&F Alerts", etc...
Again, expect James not much reply fully until AFTER his other undertaking concludes (he's working the petition)...
VR_____________________________________________
sign the petition, at http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/rev...fund-transfers
(http://www.tspshareholder.org/ )

Ayla,
To you specific question: seems the worm (S) did turn this morning at 11:17am.
VR
Attachment 2788