Thread: P&F Chart School

RPM:

First, never ever give in.

They haven't changed the regulation yet. It is up to us to rally enough pressure to stop the change.

It can be done. We just have to set our minds to it.

Apply pressure. This is the government of the people, by the people, for the people. Do not let it perish from the earth.

Apply pressure. Demand that they do not make this change.

I know I am going to.

Will you do your part?

Flood the TSP's phone line.

Flood Saul's Congressional Campaign office phone voice mail.

tell them all NO - NOT WITH MY MONEY YOU DON'T!

Hi James,
Classes working well so far it seems (maybe getting ahead a little - re: class101, but I expect it cant be helped), but interest is sure gaining!! Highly recommended!!!

Gonna try your atachment:
1. Below select > "Manage Attachments" , > select .jpg, .bmp, whatever, then select > browse, to find the file on the computer. (- me, I place on my desktop so I can find 'em easy).
Then select > upload the file.

NEXT, click on/select > the paper clip (or use its down arrow) - in the tools at the top/above the "reply window," and select "ADD", and that's it... You will see [ATTACH ####[/ATTACH] - until you hit the "Submit Reply" button. (make sure it has at least one a line by itself)
Attachment 2648
BTW please let me know - is the $MSEAFE or the $EFA the correct chart to be using for the "I" Fund??
VR

Got it to work- Thanks Hessian.


Here is the Triple Bottom attachment. Let's give this a shot:

Attachment 2650

For some reason my question ended up way ay the bottom...
Please let me know - is the $MSEAFE or EFA is the correct chart to be using for the "I" Fund! - as the correct p&f to be reading on StockCharts??
VR

Originally Posted by hessian

For some reason my question ended up way ay the bottom...
Please let me know - is the $MSEAFE or EFA is the correct chart to be using for the "I" Fund! - as the correct p&f to be reading on StockCharts??
VR

Sorry- I missed that question.

The actual answer is ... neither is EXACTLY the I fund.

The EFA is just an ETF(exchange traded fund) of the EAFE. It gets traded through out the day along with the US market.
It is not the same thing as our I fund, which is based on a mirror of the the MSCI EAFE. MS being Morgan Stanley.

Unfortunately, there is no EXACT index that we can track for our I fund, although the MSCI EAFE is about as darn close as you can come.

If you are using the MSCIEAFE, you'll see almost exactly what our "I" fund is, and that should be close enough to make P&F chart informational assesments to input into your decision making.

Thanks

Jim

Hi James,
Thanks. I wll be out-of-pocket for at least a couple days (have to see if I can get a dial-up to work - temp.). Anyway just wanted to say thatnk for the answer. Interesting , they look almost the same (as of Wed.) - anyway I'm all bailed (safe back in G now (for that penny on Mon., likely for the week)! Markets just too crazy.

Just 1 question, any reason there is neither bullish, or bearish lines drane on the $MSEAFE? Just curious (the EFA p&f does show a "Bullish Support Line".) Maybe p&f charts don't have to show any, if none is indicated?

Originally Posted by hessian

Hi James,
...
Just 1 question, any reason there is neither bullish, or bearish lines drane on the $MSEAFE? Just curious (the EFA p&f does show a "Bullish Support Line".) Maybe p&f charts don't have to show any, if none is indicated?

I dont' know why. Perhaps it is because the BullishSupport line may be way below (and off the chart) where we are now on that one.

We have NOT broken the bullish support line area on the $MSEAFE, to the best I can trace a guess at where it should be. But that chart only goes back into 2006, so it may be existing well below and off the chart.

I'm sticking on the sidelines until at least next week, while we let things settle a little. The "Black Friday" effect is in force today, and we'll have to wait until we hear what retail results were over the next couple days. If retail spending was good, we MAY have a good december. But if retail spending was down below estimates, we'll likely continue to struggle around here.

Have a good vacation.

Jim

Ok- back to Chart School.

Today, we continue with the downward momentum. That is fine, we are out of the market sitting on the sidelines. Please take note of both the "formation", a descending Pole formation that officially was recorded as a triple bottom breakdown back on November 20th, and the predicted "Price Objective.

(See earlier lesson on a triple bottom breakdown. )

Attachment 2681


As we are still in a descending "Bearish Resistance Line" formation, we are not yet ready to buy back. We sit safely on the sidelines collecting the F fund earnings, while waiting for the best opportunity to buy back in. We sold when we got the "triple bottom breakdown" indication to sell back on November 19th, when the C fund was at 1440.


There still appears to be downward pressue.

Note one (Note 1) shows where we ended up today, after Friday's bounce back showed a fake out up.

Note two (Note 2) states the "predicted price objective". That is where the P&F chart is saying we should expect to see a turnaround. We are now about 60 points above that figure.

I don't know if I am going to wait until we hit that Price Objective, or if I may start buying in earlier using the dollar cost average method. In my opinion we're going to see more down action tomorrow, and probably wednesday as well. That MAY be the opportunity to get back in- at least partially. If it does drop below 1380, be prepared to buy in at these levels. Good deal.

Remember- right now the P&F chart is telling us to expect 1350. I last sold at 1440, so anywhere here buying back in is profitable. I am not going to wait all the way to 1350, unless things change. I do predict more ups and downs and we float downward. P&F theory says not to buy back until the ups penetrate the red line upward. However, I may go earlier than that, as the market is clearly lower than when I sold- so anything here is gravey to me.

remeber this: Pigs get fat. Hogs get eaten. If we are 5% better off when we rebuy, we've improved. Don't get caught waiting to long, and missing the chance to buy back at a lower cost trying to scroe the big score. There will be more chances like this ahead.

I will be looking at possible buying opportunties soon- perhaps as early as Wednesday, particularly of the market continues this descent.

Price objective today shows 1350.

We'll see.

Are we out of the woods yet?

Not by a long shot.

Today's rebound is just letting off some VX steam. You'll notice that we have a lower high than before, each of these rebounds continue to try, but we're just not ready yet to bottom out.

Take a close look at today's S&P P&F chart:

Attachment 2709

You'll notice that we rebounded a little today, but not enough to create a new series of "X"s.

Eight O's down, then five Xs up, then eight zeros down, and ths rebound wasn't even as strong up as the last one. Losing the steam.

Where do we go from here?

I think we're back down again, at least near the low from day before yesterday.

After that- it could go either way.

Remember, there are four different influences on where we head.

1. Patterns - That's your "Triple Bottom Breakdown" back on Nov 20th. Nothing has changed.



2. Trend Lines - Those are your Bearish Resistance Lines and Bullish Support Lines. The red line is still in effect, and we are below the blue line. nothing has changed, so we disregard any set of three buy signal X that might appear.

3. Market Indicators - This is wild card here- what outside influences are being down on the price. Is there a rate cut coming? War in the middle east? Price of Oil got people down? An election around the corner, and people have uncertainty over who will win?

Today that was pumped by news of Abu Dabi buying Citibank shares. Not much else in the news to brighten things.


4. Price Objectives (PO). This is the mechincal price the charts THINK the price will get to, before a major change in direction. One thing to remember is that the Price Objective is strictly based on where the stock has been, and what it is doing now, independant of any other stock indicator.

Outside factors could play in tomorrow- like they did today- like the Citibank infusion of cash from Abu Dabi.

A nice, one day good news story.

But it still doesn't change the fact that the economy is not as strong as many thought just a few months ago.

Price objective still 1350.


Today's market doesn't change that at all.

James:

Have you looked at the weekly charts with SLO STO at all? these charts show the 2 market dips this year very clearly, and if we can find good exit/entry points from SLO STO, then we'd only need to do a few IFT a year, which would fit well into the new TSP board scheme of things. Personally, I am also getting tired to the whiplash of moving in/out of the market on a daily basis, so I have been studying the charts to find a slower way to do things. From these weekly charts, if I can find way to dodge most of the dips, and get some of the rise, I'd be very happy! Would appreciate any input from you. TIA.

Yes, I've seen the SLO STO charts- but I am not very familiar with them. Sorry, can't help you on that one.


I am blown away by what happened today. I wasn't expecting that, and I am tdy- so I can not take advantage of the info during the day.

Too bad.

I still think we'll get one more down move, though.

Today's action moved up six X's. I think we'll fade down nearly to that low- maybe not all the way, but lower than here. If we do again, I'll look hard at buying back in. If not, I may have missed the boat. We'll know at this time next week.