Hindenburg Omen
A technical indicator named after the famous crash of the German airship of the late 1930s. The Hindenburg omen was developed to predict the potential for a financial market crash. It is created by monitoring the number of securities that form new 52-week highs relative to the number of securities that form new 52-week lows - the number of securities must be abnormally large. This criteria is deemed to be met when both numbers are greater than 2.2% of the total number of issues that trade on the NYSE (for that specific day). Traders use an abnormally high number of 52-week highs/lows because it suggests that market participants are starting to become unsure of the market's future direction and therefore could be due for a major correction. Proponents of this indicator argue that it has been very accurate in predicting sharp sell-offs in the past and that there are few indicators that can predict a market crash as accurately.
Socrates: "Democracy, which is a charming form of government, full of variety and disorder, and dispensing a sort of equality to equals and unequaled alike."
Socrates: "Democracy, which is a charming form of government, full of variety and disorder, and dispensing a sort of equality to equals and unequaled alike."
Blackstone IPO…a sign of a top in the Market?
Meanwhile, another action associated with a market top is the Blackstone Group's initial public offering of its stock (IPO). This is the largest public offering since 2002 , bringing in $4.13 billion. Is the smart money cashing out?
A second Hindenburg sighting...and a third!
Yesterday's market gave us a second Hindenburg Omen sighting…and today's activity in the market may give us yet a third zeppelin sighting. This now confirms the probability of a major decline in the next 120 days. The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%. (Source: Wikepedia.com)
The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1349.html
Socrates: "Democracy, which is a charming form of government, full of variety and disorder, and dispensing a sort of equality to equals and unequaled alike."
The Ducati is oiled and ready to ride the next cycle purge - so let's walk the talk and bring it. My bet is 1400 Dow before the end of July - providing the Fed changes their wording some. They are data dependent and the data is looking fine.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Read through the stats on this thing. A Hindenburg event can be as little as 5% to register (i.e. something like we saw in February) and the time frames from signal to event can lag as much a 4 months.
This indicator is about as useful for us as: "What goes up must come down"
Griffin's Account, Griffin's Account Talk
'Houston, we've had a problem. We've had a main B bus undervolt.', James Lovell
Griffin's Account, Griffin's Account Talk
'Houston, we've had a problem. We've had a main B bus undervolt.', James Lovell
I just got an Andria Doria signal.
I actually like these historical pattern signals.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Well....at least everyone is cheery while this little debacle 'warms up' !!
Markets look pretty good for the moment though
NTXDiver
Don't look now!
It was a typo - I meant 14,000. Let the good times of summer begin.
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