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Thread: The Hindenburg Omen

  1. #121

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Looking for confirmation from the NYSE.

    Using Refinitiv data, a more stringent construction of the indicator shows a signal popped up Tuesday on the Nasdaq. The last signal developed 12 trading days ahead of the Nasdaq's Feb. 19, 2020 top and what would then prove to be a 33% swoon in the tech-laden index into its March trough. No signal occurred on the NYSE on Tuesday. Its last occurrence was the Feb. 3, 2020 date.
    https://www.lse.co.uk/news/live-mark...y835bkseu.html

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  3. #122

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Oh great. A Hindenburg Omen- Just when I had dived in.

    Well, thank you Bullitt for posting that. Definitely has me on my toes. Here is the NASDAQ chart which also is scary to me today:

    Image1614862677.804219.jpg


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  5. #123

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Recent Hindenburg Omen signals have produced little downside. But if they start to get ignored, that's when they'll likely be effective again.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #124

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Agree, there have been so many false alarms with this thing over the years. It's seems to be complicated indicator, but most importantly it follows the new highs and lows coupled with McClellan Oscillator.

    Today the lows on the NYSE ended at 154, the highest since March 30 when it was 180. McClellan is also in negative territory currently.

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  9. #125

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Some good points since we're probably going to be starting Operation Twist II soon.

    Finally got a Hindenburg Omen on March 4. One. They tend to matter more when they gang up together. Not a guarantee of anything, but a warning. Noteworthy is that none of the HOs in 2013 mattered, under QE3. Also noteworthy: QE4 is still running 2x anything seen in QE3.
    https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc/sta...45222813900804

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  11. #126

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    New NYSE HO on the 16th.


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  13. #127

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Second NYSE HO on 17th.

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  15. #128

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Third HO this week on the 20th. This signal precedes all crashes, but doesn't mean a crash will happen. Good chart below showing how often it triggers.

    https://confoundedinterest.net/2021/...rs-cape-ratio/

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  17. #129

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    That's it.

    Third Hindenberg Omen and I'm out. See you in a couple of months- I'm expecting a good retrenchment within 30 days.

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  19. #130

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Somebody just asked me what the Hindenberg Omen means. Here is the thread - it's not ALWAYS a signal of a decline, but it DOES have a history ot significant falls afterwards. I've seen it work several times , so I am moving to safety.

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  21. #131

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    More often then not, HO warnings are false alarms, but as bullitt said, basically all crashes are preceded by one or more signals. Generally, the more signals in a short period, the more vulnerable the market becomes. Watch the new highs / new lows lists each day. High numbers of both trigger this warning.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #132

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Somebody just asked me what the Hindenberg Omen means. Here is the thread - it's not ALWAYS a signal of a decline, but it DOES have a history ot significant falls afterwards. I've seen it work several times , so I am moving to safety.
    Link? Thanks!

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