Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?
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That's actually the chance of a decline after the 2nd signal. One of the requirements for an official event is 2 signals within xx days of each other (somewhere around 30 days, sorry can't remember exactly), the 2nd being a "confirming signal". So this 3rd signal doesn't change anything really, just adds to the cluster. It's just saying that market polarity (# stocks hitting all-time highs and # stocks hitting all-time lows) is growing and may result in some fear/panic selling soon.
Dow down 130 - Oh, the humanity! :)
(I assume it's not too soon for that joke.)
Here is another "doom and gloom" report that ties in:
"Dr. Doom says- crash coming."
Dr. Doom: A 1987-style crash is coming - Yahoo! Finance
I think he'll be on CNBC's Fast Money today at 5 PM ET.
Hindenberg Omen spotted just outside of Ardmore, Oklahoma.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf_VRYa3BO8
Nice writeup of the Hindenberg Omen over in the Christian Science Monitor-
Hindenburg Omen: Time to sell your stocks? - CSMonitor.com
They are saying there were five Omen signals in the last eight trading sessions.
I bailed today. I believe in that stuff.
Good luck.
A recent post over at Albertarocks' TA Discussions shows some new, compelling research regarding HO signals. To paraphrase, the probability of / severity of a decline has no correlation to how many signals per HO event, or how closely clustered they are. That pretty much hits right on that 2nd question of yours.
But, the real gem in the research is the confirmation that the pace of the rising market before a confirmed HO is a direct indicator (based on almost 30 years of data) of the severity of the upcoming decline. More or less, the faster we go up before the HO, the farther we go down after. This last ride clocks in as the fastest ever. Strap in!
Great stuff, bmneveu! Keep it coming!