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Thread: The Hindenburg Omen

  1. #133

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    Default The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by tom4jean View Post
    Link? Thanks!

    Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
    Go back to the very first post in this thread- and that explains what it is. Thanks. Good luck.

    We just had a second and third. Historically, this is from back in June 2007, leading up to the crash in 2008.


    “A second and a third!

    Yesterday's market gave us a second Hindenburg Omen sighting…and today's activity in the market may give us yet a third zeppelin sighting. This now confirms the probability of a major decline in the next 120 days. The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen within the next 41 days after its occurrence is 77%, the probability of a panic sellout is 41% and the probability of a real big stock market crash is 25%. (Source: Wikepedia.com)
    The occurrence of a confirmed Hindenburg Omen does not necessarily mean that the stock market will go down. On the other hand there has never been a significant stock market decline in history, that was not preceded by a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. “

    (From earlier in this thread).



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  3. #134

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    Default The Hindenburg Omen

    Remember the discussion about the Hindenburg Omen?

    Well,here we are.


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  5. #135

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Yup, and month of negative diverging indicators. But like a broken clock is right twice a day, the bears eventually get to say, I told you. But first they are wrong for a looonng time.

    Jim Chanos was on CNBC today and they were talking about Evergrande and the Chinese real estate development market. They brought him on because he was bearish on Chinese real estate since 2009!! I mean, seriously. Is he claiming victory because of today's selling?

    Probably more to it than that, but it's funny how CNBC brings out all the bears on a day like today, when every other day up until today it was 90% bulls.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  7. #136

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    I read about this too and had a chuckle. Not to disparage the bears, but I love how people I haven't heard from for weeks are now coming out to brag "I told you so." But it's ok...everyone deserves to have their day in the sun.

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Yup, and month of negative diverging indicators. But like a broken clock is right twice a day, the bears eventually get to say, I told you. But first they are wrong for a looonng time.

    Jim Chanos was on CNBC today and they were talking about Evergrande and the Chinese real estate development market. They brought him on because he was bearish on Chinese real estate since 2009!! I mean, seriously. Is he claiming victory because of today's selling?

    Probably more to it than that, but it's funny how CNBC brings out all the bears on a day like today, when every other day up until today it was 90% bulls.

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  9. #137

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    The Hindenburg Omen is on the clock until December 17, but if bears want to strike, late September to October is a better time seasonality wise.

    Timing for Chanos was wrong by more than a decade, so that doesn't mean he was right.

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  11. #138

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Nasdaq has even more HO warnings than NYSE. They're starting to rack up just like crypto and EV mania.

    This week saw the Nasdaq trigger its 13th and 14th Hindenburg Omens of the year. In the past, this degree of persistent dispersion has been a consistent precursor to corrections or bear markets in the index.
    https://thefelderreport.com/2021/11/...n-just-lit-up/

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  13. #139

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Yes, 200+ new lows on the Nasdaq yesterday despite the big rally in the Nasdaq.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #140

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    More signals?

    166 new 52-week highs today on the Nasdaq, 249 new lows. And that was with the Nasdaq 100 closing flat.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #141

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Yes, and NYSE produced another one yesterday. Now waiting for a second confirmation within 30 days to make it a true "Hindenburg Omen". We're still on the watch from the previous one though so this will just extend the due date.

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  19. #142

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Yes, and NYSE produced another one yesterday. Now waiting for a second confirmation within 30 days to make it a true "Hindenburg Omen". We're still on the watch from the previous one though so this will just extend the due date.
    I seem to recall we had a bunch of HO's back in late summer/August timeframe. Do the latest HO's "add" weight to what happened then or can they be thought of as separate entities? Does anyone have a history of these things and can do a frequency count to see how number of HO's during a timeframe correlate with price action?

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  21. #143

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Retread,

    There is much out there in the Googlesphere regarding this phenomena. I've read that no crash has ever occurred without one and that it doesn't matter how many you get in one period of time, but five or more increases the probability for a crash. There have been many false warnings, most recently in March 2021.

    Nasdaq seems to throw off more than NYSE, probably because the index is often levitated by either GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, APPL on any given day. I only follow the NYSE.

    Essentially it's all about watching for deteriorating internals. For example, today the SP500 and Nasdaq are up, but NYSE has .4 advancers for every 1 decline and Nasdaq has .3 advancers for every 1 decline.

    https://bigpicture.typepad.com/comme...Hindenburg.pdf

    It really didn't work too well during the 1990's bubble period.

    https://sentimentrader.com/blog/ulti...ndenburg-omen/

    See the chart in the link below for Nasdaq perspective if you have not already.

    https://thefelderreport.com/2021/11/...n-just-lit-up/




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  23. #144

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Another one for the NYSE confirmed yesterday. That makes three since September.

    There were three from October 2019 to January 2020 before the COVID crash (or oil crash which also contributed).

    Markets are always uncertain, but the good news always comes out at the top. Anything EV going up, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT lifting all market indicies, crypto going mainstream are some examples.


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