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Thread: An Introduction to measuring risk in the TSP Funds

  1. #13

    Default Re: An Introduction to measuring risk in the TSP Funds

    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    Everything being influenced by political and financial news must have a thundering effect on the calculations/
    Not as much as you would think unless you are only using recent data such as the 3 year returns in Table 4.

    Looking at the Std Dev for equities for 10 years or greater in Tables 3, 4 & 5 they are all pretty much in the same ballpark. You got to include those loss years to make it realistic.

    It will be interesting to recompute the Std Dev for the F Fund after including this year's likely loss. That should bump up the value closer to that of Table 5. Notice that it is much less in all the other tables. Those probably are not really realistic as they don't include the occasion loss year.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  3. #14

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    Default Re: An Introduction to measuring risk in the TSP Funds

    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    Everything being influenced by political and financial news must have a thundering effect on the calculations/
    NNuut, that is why that certain individual is sitting at -15% from that individual's selected index marker. Not saying anything, but...

    Another reason, is that this year was great for those who are not concerned about risk. The individual in question - who would absolutely never data mine the AutoTracker - values analysis that incorporates risk. Said individual hates going -15% one year and +20% the next. But, said individual - who shall remain absolutely anonymous - was a dumb@ss this year and watched the failed lawyers play at politics. And, that damn raven kept cawing 'Never more'.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  5. #15

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    Default Re: An Introduction to measuring risk in the TSP Funds

    The early analysis of this thread - before my bloviating - has value...

    The CAGR is a good analysis tool. Don't compare the resulting risk based return to an average return that does not reflect the variance in the market. Talking to you Burro. It is an unfair analysis. Compare your returns to the S&P 500 CAGR for a more fair analysis.

    By the way, here is the Money Chimp CAGR for the S&P 500
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  7. #16

    Join Date
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    Default Re: An Introduction to measuring risk in the TSP Funds

    Thanks for bumping this thread, I was going to go looking for it. Now I got to find ut how to do the risk/reward thing that is on the board somewhere. I need to change my B&H ways for the next two years but really don't want to sit in G either.

    PO

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  9. #17

    Join Date
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    Default Re: An Introduction to measuring risk in the TSP Funds

    Quote Originally Posted by PessOptimist View Post
    Thanks for bumping this thread, I was going to go looking for it. Now I got to find ut how to do the risk/reward thing that is on the board somewhere. I need to change my B&H ways for the next two years but really don't want to sit in G either.

    PO
    PO,

    Your 2008 - 2015 CAGR/Risk is 6.30% / 5.01%. That is pretty darn good ole boy. Means that you don't lose money. And the CAGR (6.30%) is always less than the average return. But, there is always a butt, you started posting in the AutoTracker in 2009. There was a monster in the house in 2008.

    Cactus has a good formula you can use in a spreadsheet. Mine is based on the MoneyChimp formula, but is more manual. Since a CAGR is a metric both are good as long as the use stays consistent...
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  11. #18

    Join Date
    Oct 2008
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    Posts
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    Default Re: An Introduction to measuring risk in the TSP Funds

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    PO,

    Your 2008 - 2015 CAGR/Risk is 6.30% / 5.01%. That is pretty darn good ole boy. Means that you don't lose money. And the CAGR (6.30%) is always less than the average return. But, there is always a butt, you started posting in the AutoTracker in 2009. There was a monster in the house in 2008.

    Cactus has a good formula you can use in a spreadsheet. Mine is based on the MoneyChimp formula, but is more manual. Since a CAGR is a metric both are good as long as the use stays consistent...
    TSP says 2008 PIP was -.23%. CAGR (Cacti's?)spreadsheet I did a while ago based on 12 periods says AAGR 0%, CAGR -.04% and total return -.51% for 2008.

    I haven't always been B&H and did move most of TSP to G in late 08. Was slow moving back in 2009 and made several moves in 2009 and early 2010. Then I pretty much stopped messing with it as I was screwing up I thought.

    Thanks for the input.

    PO


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An Introduction to measuring risk in the TSP Funds
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