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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1045

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)


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  3. #1046

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    No changes for me as it looks like we are headed down into the daily cycle low. Jeff is already buying, and it can be seen on a real-time chart as buyers come in every time we BT the 20 EMA. I'll be waiting some more before taking another VXF position. Retail traders were/are at a rare extreme so we shall see when that corrects back to a normal level. The data is on my SPX tracking chart...

    Good trading.

    I'm still long GDXJ and added again today.

    $SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com


    VXF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mark...days-downturn/

    I would have preferred to have seen a selloff towards the 50-day moving average line at about 2705 to set up a good buying opportunity. At the very least, I was hoping for a decline to the 20-day EMA.

    But the stock market is resilient.

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  5. #1047

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Long GDXJ and flat VXF.....

    VXF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

    Comments are at the bottom of this link...

    Good trading next week.
    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1...Roadblock=true

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  7. #1048

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I remain long GDXJ, and Flat VXF!

    Gold's "Death Cross" is upon us
    Started by Rogerdodger, Yesterday, 07:55 AM

    Gold's "Death Cross" is upon us - The Gold & Commodities Board - Traders-Talk.com

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  9. #1049

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Sizzling Summer Sale

    This is week 20 for the intermediate equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Stocks formed a weekly swing high last week and are delivering bearish follow through this week. The best sale prices will coincide with the intermediate cycle low. Stocks should break below the weekly trend line and manage to turn the 10 week MA lower before it prints its intermediate cycle low.

    Monday was day 36 for the daily equity cycle. So stocks are also in their timing band to print a daily cycle low. Stocks could print a DCL this week. If so then stocks will likely need one more daily cycle to break below the weekly trend line and to turn the 10 week MA lower to complete the intermediate cycle decline.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...g-summer-sale/

    $SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

    VXF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

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  11. #1050

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Ugly in my opinion!

    $SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

    Today's main topic is grounded.

    If I discuss contrarian investing with those who are not familiar with it, they usually think that it means buying something which is becoming less popular and selling whatever is becoming increasingly trendy. However, if something goes from 30% bulls to 70% bulls then that is usually when it enjoys some of its greatest percentage gains. To be a contrarian you have to wait until either bullishness or bearishness--measured by fund flows, media coverage, investor sentiment, and other indicators--has reached a level which is only seen once every several years. It is possible that the situation could become even more lopsided so that multi-decade rarities are achieved as we had experienced with most commodity-related and emerging-market securities by January 20, 2016. I know people who bought far too early during the 2007-2009 bear market, and I know many others who never bought because they received so much positive psychological feedback each time they thought about buying but waited longer and were rewarded with even lower prices. There is no magic crystal ball which tells you when an especially extended rally or pullback is set to sharply reverse. However, the more unusual and dramatic the deviation from the mean has become, the more powerful the subsequent reversion toward the mean and beyond will usually be. It is therefore a challenging balancing act to develop a method which will consistently succeed in the long run even though almost anything can happen in the short run.

    Whenever you have no idea what to do, use common sense. If you are firmly grounded in history and act gradually in a highly-disciplined manner then you can adapt to anything which the financial markets have done, are doing, or might do in the future.

    Kaplan

    True Contrarian

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  13. #1051

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Stocks - waiting on the ICL and a setup to go long VXF again...

    Stocks printed 523 million Selling on Strength on Thursday. We typically Selling on Strength numbers nearing cycle peaks, not cycle bottoms. Seeing this large SOS number on what potentially is the DCL is a warning signal which aligns with our intermediate cycle framework that stocks are declining into an intermediate cycle low. Stocks still need to complete their intermediate cycle decline (which I will detail in the Weekend Report). Therefore our expectation is to see a left translated daily cycle formation which will allow stocks to complete their intermediate cycle decline.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...orning-report/

    The Market's Setting Up for a Bullish July
    Everybody in the world seemed to be buying put options yesterday.

    Okay, that’s a slight exaggeration. Not “everybody in the world” bought puts. But there were enough folks willing to pay up for insurance that the CBOE Put/Call ratio (CPC) spiked up to near its second-highest level of the year.

    https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/

    Gold - The Bullish setup and the odds for a MT trade continue to increase...

    $GOLD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

    GLD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com



    $SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

    I always use Risk Management when trading...


    Mind the Trap Door


    John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
    President, Hussman Investment Trust

    July 2018

    It’s worth emphasizing that the message here is not “sell everything.” Rather, investors should carefully evaluate their risk tolerance, their investment horizon, their sensitivity to market losses, and their tolerance for regret (both the regret of missed market gains as a result of being defensive, and the regret of suffering market losses as a result of being constructive). In my view, investors should seriously consider the prospect of a market decline on the order of -65% from the recent market highs, and their capacity to tolerate that sort of loss without abandoning their investment discipline. Investors with limited investment horizons should also consider the likelihood, suggested by current valuation extremes, that total market returns over the coming 10-12 years may be negative even if they maintain their discipline through a steep interim market loss.

    I’ll emphasize again that the worst market outcomes in history have typically unfolded when extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions have been joined by deteriorating market internals and upward pressure on credit spreads and risk-premiums. Conversely, the strongest market outcomes in history have typically unfolded when a substantial retreat in market valuations has been joined by early improvement in those measures of market action. If our measures of market internals improve, we will defer the immediacy of our downside concerns. Here and now, my impression is that complacency could prove to be a costly instinct.

    https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180627/

    Did you know: For example, a married couple filing jointly pays no capital gains tax if their total taxable income is $77,220 or less."

    Long-term vs. short-term capital gains taxes
    Long-term capital gains are those you earn on assets you’ve held for more than a year. Under the new 2018 tax law, such gains are taxed at three rates, depending on your overall income: zero, 15 percent and 20 percent. For example, a married couple filing jointly pays no capital gains tax if their total taxable income is $77,220 or less. They’ll pay 15 percent on capital gains if their income is $77,221 to $479,000. For couples above that income level, the rate is 20 percent. There also is a de facto fourth bracket for certain high earners who must pay an additional 3.8 percent on investment income as part of the Affordable Care Act.

    By contrast, short-term capital gains are from assets you buy and sell within one year. They are taxed as regular income, which is always higher than the long-term capital gains rate. The government gives you a break on long-term gains to encourage buy-and-hold investments (as opposed to speculating), which stabilize the economy.

    https://www.bankrate.com/investing/l...tal-gains-tax/

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  15. #1052

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Happy 4th Of July

    Flat stocks....

    spx and Europe...secondary top by mid July - Fearless Forecasters - Traders-Talk.com

    Long - MT GDXJ, ST trading JNUG and USLV

    i think i see the wave count here - The Gold & Commodities Board - Traders-Talk.com

    Good trading next week and investors enjoy the show!

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