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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #3385

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    GDXJ daily: Remains above the 10 dma...... They tend to lead...... So is this going to be a breakout, or just another fakeout? Waiting on the Fed.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #3386

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Miner cycle thoughts:

    Miner Risk for Major Opportunity

    The Miners were rejected by the 10 day MA on Friday. They went on to undercut the day 43 low on Monday to extend its daily cycle decline.

    Monday was day 50 for the daily Miner cycle, making it severely overdue for a daily cycle low. After undercutting the low, the Miners could have easily went on to a 5 to 7 day bloodbath phase. But instead, they printed a bullish inside candle. That eases the parameters for forming a daily swing low. A break above 25.42 will form a swing low, Then a close above the declining 10 day MA will have us label day 50 as the DCL.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...r-opportunity/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #3387

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VXX/$VIX/$BPSPX/SPX/Cycles: Four indicators that has me looking to buy some SDS...

    Bottom Line: Not a time to be all in based on these indicators. Unless, it's different this time, and that is always possible! I'm mainly trading the gold miners right now.

    The four indicators I'm watching - Watching $BPSPX ( high) and the $VIX data ( below 20ish) as the VXX compression continues. Also, we be due a move down into the DCL. The chart pattern indicates lots of risk right now. I have NO IDEA how this will play out, but the odds of a pullback are high right now. All my trades are based on a set of odds..... I also call it Risk Management!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #3388

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    A closer look at $BPSPX ( high) and the $VIX data ( below 20.00ish)
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #3389

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VVIX knew...but does it know?
    VVIX stopped crashing a little while ago. VIX on the other hand has been busy closing the gap vs VVIX. Note the divergence between these two over the past week. VVIX ain't buying the latest VIX move lower...
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #3390

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPX/VIX daily:

    You buy protection when you can...not when you must

    Regular readers of TME are familiar with the above. Given the most recent "reset" of cross asset vols, but especially in equities land, the prudent investor should be looking at hedges/long volatility trades/pure speculation. To play pure VIX, we would look at relatively short dated VIX call spreads. We have Jackson Hole coming up, September is around the corner and is a "problematic" month. It is all about Fed, but will they land this the soft or the hard way? One thing is sure, you do not buy a house insurance after it has started burning, irrespective if it is going to burn or not....A thread on volatility and protection:
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #3391

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    New Hussman Commentary today: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220815/

    Wall Street appears convinced that the half-point retreat from the highest core inflation in 40 years, currently at 5.9%, will encourage the Fed to “pivot” to lower rates in no time. Yet when the Federal Funds rate has been lower than core inflation, with core inflation above even 2.5%, the Fed has never shifted to easing unless recession has pushed the unemployment rate toward 6% or higher. It’s also worth noting that the only bear market low in history that occurred in the midst of a Fed tightening cycle was in 1987, at an S&P 500 forward operating P/E of less than 10, and a price/revenue multiple less than a quarter of today’s level.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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