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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #2377

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    SPY daily: Probably a few folks that BTD are a tad worried this morning.
    That would be me, over here in the corner with a heavy blanket over my head.



    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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  3. #2378

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by rangerray View Post
    That would be me, over here in the corner with a heavy blanket over my head.



    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS
    Ignore the first chart for the SPY. You can't see the entire chart. Use the VTI and SPY daily below for my comments.

    The logic and the odds for a winner trade, based on the patterns I have been using for the last 12 month, was above average for a winning trade today/this week. I didn't ST trade it or go long because I'm waiting on a weekly buy signal, and only ST trade when the indexes are trending below the 10 dma. This is day 5 for the current trend. Going long when the trend is below the 10 dma is counter-trend trading and one should keep it very small. I'm usually short, but shorting this market has been tough. I'm sure you know all this, but I'm just explaining it now now for others that read over my comments.

    So, it's early in the week, and it sucks to be down on "EASY MONEY MONDAY". I'm sure lots of folks are with you and probably the PROS are at work here. However, sometimes it just doesn't work out. This trade was like you going double down when you have 11 playing Blackjack, and the dealer has a 3 showing. We shall see if buyers come in later today...... Not sure how much you went long, but for me, and as a general rule I never place a bet over 10%. However, using the TSP for trading can NOT be done very well. It's excellent for MT positions.

    Bottom Line: SPY remains below the 10 dma and is still trending down. This could just be the final move down before the next big move up. However, I only trade what is happening and not what I think will happen.

    I wait and good luck on your trade Brother!

    I will be going long VTI at Vanguard once I like the set-up. The limited moves and having to decided early in the day sucks for sure. It looks like a few buyers are starting to come in. We shall see how we close and maybe we will get Turn around Tuesday. I will continue to only ST trade until I start seeing bigger changes on the 2 hour charts.

    Looking for ST bottom or turn.
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    Last edited by robo; 10-04-2021 at 02:19 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #2379

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY 2 hour chart:

    Long SSO for a ST trade..... Stop will be new lows......

    SPY 30 minute chart:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SP...d=p80452625673
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    Last edited by robo; 10-04-2021 at 03:07 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  7. #2380

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY monthly and the mean: In the old days the monthly mean for the SPY was the 40 mma. It rarely got to far stretched above it and would come back down and tag it on occasion. I can tell you it will again someday. When? I will leave the guessing to others, but some think before Joe leaves office. Futures are about flat for those that are holding this tag of the 100 dma. The cycle guys might have to go back to the drawing board if this is a LT daily cycle. We shall see how it plays out.

    LT = Left Translated Cycles – peak prior the center of a cycle. Since the cycle peaks prior the midway point its spends the most amount of its time in descent and the least amount of its time in ascent. Therefore left translated cycles are associated with a downtrend, printing lower highs and lower lows.

    SPY daily: Day 5 since moving below the 10 dma.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #2381

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: A good start for the morning. Back above the 100 dma.......

    Long SSO and SLV.....

    GDX/SLV daily:

    GDX weekly: Week 17 below the 10 wma.
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #2382

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY weekly: The Bulls want the SPY back above the 10 wma ASAP...... Watching. Hmmmmm..... I want to see how the sentiment chart plays out that Tom Posted. (See chart below)

    Long SSO, SLV and ( NUGT - VST trade)

    After 17 Months of Speculation, Investors Are in Risk-Off Mode
    Jason Goepfert
    Jason Goepfert
    Published: 2021-10-05 at 0700 CDT
    For the first time in over a year, investors have a risk-off mentality and are showing signs of widespread pessimism.

    It's not extreme in most cases, and Friday's rebound puts a dent in the argument, but last week showed the first real signs of concern since the spring of 2020.

    The Risk-On / Risk-Off Indicator looks at more than 20 indicators and calculates the percentage that are displaying risk-on or risk-off behaivor. You can see them individually by going to Spotlights > Spotlight on Sentiment. The two other times that the indicator tipped into risk-off territory over the past year, buying pressure came in immediately. Last week was the first time that didn't happen.
    https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/...ad9-1271291994
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    Last edited by robo; 10-05-2021 at 01:10 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  13. #2383

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: Ok, we can now make it day 6 below the 10 dma......

    GDX and SLV: Both above the 10 dma..... We shall see if buyers keep coming in..... After washing out anyone with a stop around $20.00ish for SLV it continues to move slowly higher. Another move below $20.00ish wouldn't surprise me in this sector. I'm not calling for that, but this sector has some crazy moves in the pre-market to run stops.

    SLV: Day 3 for the move above the 10 dma. It continues to crawl sideways for now. Waiting to see what the dollar does next. LOL.... Let me know "IF" you know for sure
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    Last edited by robo; 10-05-2021 at 07:30 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #2384

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY daily: Day 7 of the move below the 10 dma. Buyers coming in after the early gap down.....
    SPY monthly: We could be moving down into the YCL = September was month 18 for the yearly equity cycle, placing stocks late in their timing band for a yearly cycle decline. A YCL will probably get us much closer to the 40 mma. We shall see if the 20 mma holds. As you can see on the monthly chart below the SPY is extremely stretched above the 40 mma. A move down to the 20 mma would just get us back closer to the mean. At some point the rubber band will snap back. When is STBD!
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    Last edited by robo; 10-06-2021 at 10:09 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #2385

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI weekly and the ICL/YCL. The odds are increasing that we could see a YCL in the weeks ahead. Will that happen? I don't know, but we are in month 18 since the last YCL and extremely stretched above the 40 wma. A tag of the 40 wma would just be normal for a YCL...... We shall see how it plays out, but one should stay nimble when BTD until we get a confirmed signal that the YCL is in.

    The VTI weekly remains below the 20 wma, but buyers are coming in. You can see what is normal based on the chart below. When the index moves this far above the 40 wma one has to question how much longer can this go on. LOL..... It has went much longer then I thought it would, but the Fed has supported this since the 2020 March lows, and then we have all the new BTDer's trading this market mainly from the long-side using leverage.

    VTI monthly cycle data chart: I use cycles and ma's for trading. I just trade what is happening and not what I think will happen. Once we move below the 10 dma on the daily chart I'm either in cash or shorting. If I do ST trade based on oversold conditions that is ST counter-trend trading and I mainly day-trade. As for MT stock index trades at Vanguard. I wait to buy back VTI and I currently have NO position using VTI.

    For the record: I DO NOT USE the data or Link below for trading.

    StockMarket Cycles
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSlkt_SBnN8&t=805s
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    Last edited by robo; 10-06-2021 at 01:50 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  19. #2386

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Possible! As I always say - We shall see. My magic 8 ball is broken..... (Note the word Potential)

    Bottoming pattern
    A potential bottoming pattern is in play for stocks. Once this ICL is finished get prepared for a monster rally. More in the nightly reports for subs.
    https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremiu...g-pattern.html

    Question for the 8 ball: Is a monster rally coming? LOL..... Just how much is a monster rally?

    I do agree that if we get a YCL during this time of the year we should get a very nice rally. First, we need to get back above the 10 dma, and we are seeing a nice move back up today...

    VTI daily closeup:
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    Last edited by robo; 10-06-2021 at 02:34 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #2387

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    VTI daily: Still having trouble at the 100 dma.... This is the type of market you need to trade small and stay nimble until the next ICL/YCL is confirmed.

    VTI = The Total Stock Market and I be waiting to buy! One would think the Bulls will move the market higher into the close. All I care about is the current price, the ma's, and the price action on the daily. I sometimes post TSI and RSI's, but they don't give me signals so I don't post them much. I use the 30 minute and 2 hour charts to try and trade ST trend changes. I made several trades today. The 2 hour SPY chart be looking ok, and the 30 minute data indicates we are trying to bottom.

    We shall see how it plays out, but I sure wouldn't be betting the farm just yet! Wait for a confirmed ICL/YCL. Well, that is what I will be doing with my MT funds at Vanguard.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SP...2&a=1038673832
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #2388

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I love reading your commentary and looking at your charts, especially concerning SPY and VTI, but I get lost trying to keep up with acronyms or abbreviations. I don't know what ICL/YCL means, though from the rest of your post, I sort of know it has something to do with a yearly cycle. It makes it hard sometimes to follow your posts because I'm a dummy and often have to stop and figure out what the abbreviations mean. Is there a list somewhere that I should familiarize myself with?
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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