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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1957

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY weekly chart below: So how long have you been short the SPY? Say WHAT!
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #1958

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    I say keep it small and stay nimble if you are long in this market.
    The sentiment chart below is from Tom's daily reports.


    August rain: the best of the summer gone; the summer's last messenger of misery
    (1) August can be an uncomfortable month for price action, generally

    (2) The market is vulnerable having passed the peak of earnings season

    (3) It was a month-end dynamic that helped prop up indices

    (4) Big Tech results were good, but the stocks ‘didn’t work’

    (5) SPX is up a lot YTD and 'we are due' for a proper / ‘typical’ pullback

    (6) Fears of a COVID setback are 'real' / not going away

    (7) ‘Here comes the August air pocket’
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #1959

    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post

    I use to say - Robo be Nimble, Robo be quick, make that trade, and get out quick!
    But we don't have ANY option to be nimble or quick in TSP! We have both hands tied behind our backs and he system is rigged against us with only 2 IFT's per month. And the noon deadline is another handicap. With only 2 IFT's per month I say the system makes us be more risky because if you used an IFT to get in you don't want to get out right away (say it starts to fall once you got in) because you don't want to use that second IFT to get out knowing that you won't be able to get back in again until the end of the month. This scenario really hurts if you choose to get in early in the month.

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  7. #1960

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Quote Originally Posted by retread View Post
    But we don't have ANY option to be nimble or quick in TSP! We have both hands tied behind our backs and he system is rigged against us with only 2 IFT's per month. And the noon deadline is another handicap. With only 2 IFT's per month I say the system makes us be more risky because if you used an IFT to get in you don't want to get out right away (say it starts to fall once you got in) because you don't want to use that second IFT to get out knowing that you won't be able to get back in again until the end of the month. This scenario really hurts if you choose to get in early in the month.
    Which is why most of the time when it *looked* like I knew what I was doing, it was just dumb luck. At times I'm able to read a trend, but I'm quite incapable of guessing what the market situation will be one, two or more weeks in advance.

    However, I don't think past performance is a very reliable indicator of anything right now. There seems to be a lot more people playing the stock market than there used to be, so that is something to consider. Regardless of the COVID situation, I don't think Americans are inclined to stop in their tracks like last year. Business is going to pick up. People are going to go back to work eventually no matter the efforts of the government to work against that with give-aways. There is still a lot of recovering to do and it will happen. It has to.
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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  9. #1961

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    retread,

    TSP is for MT trading only. I always try and point that out. In my opinion you should first do the matching in your TSP account, second is Roth IRA's for you and your wife at Vanguard in a trading account, third max out the rest of your TSP/401k for those that can, and last a straight up trading account at Vanguard. Well, that is how I played it and I moved my TSP funds to Vanguard once I could. For your TSP account you should be using a weekly chart Brother. I like TSP all except the two moves a month.

    My posts about ST trading are NOT about a TSP account. However, my posts related to weekly and monthly charts are. The SPY weekly chart below. if you use the 20 wma for making moves you would have been long for most of this trend. Even after a short-term tag of the 20 wma you would have went right back to a buy signal. If you don't understand let me know and I will explain it better. I'm not including risk management data in the signals because that is used for how large a position size should be after a new buy signal. If you use the 40 wma for buy and sell signals, which I don't, you would still be long the C Fund. Back test it on my chart below. Tagging of the 200 wma is always a time of extremes and one should start scaling in small even if we move lower. Once we see the bottom forming adding tags of the 40 wma is also a good time to add. Again, we are talking about MT trading on the weekly chart. The daily is different.

    Take Care!

    Bottom Line: In my opinion you should also get a Roth IRA at Vanguard if you can. See the eggs and a basket picture below.
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    Last edited by robo; 08-04-2021 at 03:59 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  10.  
  11. #1962

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    We shall see how this plays out!


    Second Chart: Tapering - Maybe, but I doubt anytime soon...... LOL...... We shall see.....


    Let's revisit those old Tapering charts...
    Last time around, pre-tapering phase led to higher yields, DM equities did well post the initial selloff, and market leadership was pro-Cyclical....
    https://themarketear.com/
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  13. #1963

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    DeMark Indicators are worth tracking in my opinion: I use it as a Risk Management tool when I can find his data free.

    8-3-21 Mad Money with Jim Cramer and the DeMark Indicators


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cfj5DkvlvQE


    Bottom Line: Lots of indicators continue to provide warnings that you should currently be nimble and trading small. I don't try and pick tops or bottoms, but the warnings do keep adding up. With that said, the trend remains up if you are trading the SPY.

    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels

    8:30 PM, August 4, 2021

    List of Critical Warnings Expands

    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
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    Last edited by robo; 08-04-2021 at 10:22 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  14.  
  15. #1964

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    Daily cycle: I use cycles as a warning indicator as part pf my Risk Management tools for determining position size.

    It’s Getting Late


    It’s Getting Late
    by likesmoneystudies

    Stocks broke out above the day 17 high on day 24. They have been consolidating above the day 17 high since then.


    Stocks broke bearishly out of consolidation on Monday but formed a bullish reversal on Tuesday to close below back in the consolidation zone. Stocks delivered bullish follow through on Thursday. Thursday was day 33 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. A break above the day 28 high of 4429.97 will indicate that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend. At this point of the daily cycle -- even if stocks break higher, it will be given right back as stocks seek out their daily cycle low. However, there is the potential for stocks to begin a melt-up phase. Therefore stops could be raised to 4429.97 with a close above the day 28 high.

    https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordp...etting-late-6/


    SevenSentinels
    @SevenSentinels
    1h
    August 5, 2021, 7:45 PM

    Waiting For NFP
    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor


    I sure agree..... I just don't know what will happen...... Melt up or melt down!

    We will shall see how it plays out tomorrow.
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    Last edited by robo; 08-05-2021 at 09:30 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #1965

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    IWM daily: A nice move up today, but IWM remains below its 50 and 100 dma and stuck in a trading range. A warning signal? "Maybe" tomorrow will shed some light. I said MAYBE.
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    Last edited by robo; 08-05-2021 at 10:08 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #1966

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    NFP - Not much of a reaction so far......

    The dollar be on the move, and trying to get back above the 10 dma. Keep in mind "Easy Money Monday" is up next. You buy on Thursday's and sell on Monday's. Well, that has been the pattern for ST trading. STBD if that continues the rest of August and September. One would expect an up day today based on the patterns the last year.

    Bottom Line: If you are trading the SPY the trend remains up. Small caps have been much tougher, but the VXF index is currently trending above the 10 dma too. Waiting to see how we close today.

    VXF, UUP, USD, SPY daily charts: ( VXF is close to the S Fund and I trade it at Vanguard )
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    Last edited by robo; 08-06-2021 at 09:21 AM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #1967

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    EQX daily: Are the miners trying to bottom? We shall see.....
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #1968

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    Default Re: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

    SPY weekly: What's not to like on a MT weekly chart. Just BTD..... Very few tags of the 20 wma for those that like to use the 20 wma for MT trading. I use the daily, but have unlimited moves anytime during the day.

    Bottom Line: The trend remains up!
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    Last edited by robo; 08-06-2021 at 08:27 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
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