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Thread: Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

  1. #1213

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    A updated comment about the W pattern....


    https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

    Notice you will see something that looks like a "W" pattern as the market tops on the chart above. (Look at the dumb money/ smart money confidence level spread) Something I have used for years in my trading. Tom mentions it too.... Now look at the current pattern since they started "NOT QE" The patterns are clear, and the trend remains up, but that is another warning indicator I keep an eye on and track. The reasons don't matter to me why we get the pattern, but the current distorted pattern is a result of the Fed in my opinion.... The MT risk level has been at a 8 or a 9 for the longest run ever based on the data for back testing..... Another extreme....

    Bottom Line - The trend remains up with another rare extreme....
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  3. #1214

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Don't fight the trend ( I mean the Fed). The trend remains up NO MATTER how many extremes we continue to see. Watching the SOX..... it can be a tell at tops....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...39&a=710071562

    My 2 hour trading data....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...26&a=713753062

    Bottom Line: The trend remains up, but with many extremes, and we are getting deep into this cycle..... A yearly cycle low is getting closer. It could be a mild one... A BT the 20 month MA or it could BT test the 50 month MA. It doesn't matter to me since I will be trading the daily trend and will be in cash once we move under the the daily MAs. 10 and 20 DMAs..... The yearly cycle low back tested (BT) the 50 month MA during the last YCL. I have know idea how this will play out with the Fed pumping huge amounts of money to it's primary dealers or whomever wants/need 50 billion a day.... The talk is hedge funds can line up too in the days ahead.... I would think many want Trump to stay in office. LOL... Better hope the Senate doesn't lose to many seats if the house remains in control by the Dems..... If that happens it will be four years of grid lock or worse. Lots for investors to think about in the months ahead. Trend traders just don't care...... We trade what is happening not what we think will happen.

    Monthly

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...28&a=709838891
    Last edited by robo; 01-15-2020 at 01:27 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  5. #1215

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    Question Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Another extreme - The ROBO/Rydex Total Bull/ Bear Ratio. It now looks like the 2018 January data..... LOL... Nothing for investors to worry about.... Crazy times indeed.....

    Chart by Sentiment Trader.

    https://sentimentrader.com/blog/

    https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader


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    SevenSentinels


    @SevenSentinels
    4h4 hours ago
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    3:10

    Market Celebrate P1 Trade Deal w/ Triple Digit Gain As Internals Weaken and VIX Strengthens

    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor


    Sven Henrich

    Verified account

    @NorthmanTrader
    3h3 hours ago
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    If Newton was a technical analyst today:

    "I can chart the motion of markets, but not the madness of people".

    https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader
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    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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  7. #1216

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    A nice move up for IWM this morning. Short covering? It doesn't matter really.... all that matters is the current trend and it remains up.....

    Buying some VXX since the $VIX went under 12.00 this morning... Long VXX @ $13.38 for a trade....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IW...26&a=713753062
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  9. #1217

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    The MACD tool - How to use it, problems with this indicator, and how well it works


    SentimenTrader
    @sentimentrader

    If you're a beginner at trading and want to learn about MACD, here's everything you need to know about this indicator.

    How to use it, problems with this indicator, and how well it works

    https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  11. #1218

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Quote Originally Posted by robo View Post
    A updated comment about the W pattern....


    https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

    Notice you will see something that looks like a "W" pattern as the market tops on the chart above. (Look at the dumb money/ smart money confidence level spread) Something I have used for years in my trading. Tom mentions it too.... Now look at the current pattern since they started "NOT QE" The patterns are clear, and the trend remains up, but that is another warning indicator I keep an eye on and track. The reasons don't matter to me why we get the pattern, but the current distorted pattern is a result of the Fed in my opinion.... The MT risk level has been at a 8 or a 9 for the longest run ever based on the data for back testing..... Another extreme....

    Bottom Line - The trend remains up with another rare extreme....
    Do you watch patterns? The distorted W pattern is now starting to complete. I will post an updated chart later...

    The trend remains up and it looks like the pattern is completing..... I can't wait to see how it plays out! I don't really care what causes these pattern. I just track them and this one has a 100% success rate so far. Will NOT QE change this pattern? So far it has really distorted it, and it's possible it's different this time. With the daily amount of easy money being injected into this market anything is possible. It will just be another extreme for me to watch as the trend remains up!


    Have a good one....

    Chart by Sentiment Trader:

    https://sentimentrader.com/blog/
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by robo; 01-16-2020 at 09:37 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

  12.  
  13. #1219

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Patterns....

    Chart In Focus
    SPY Number of Shares Outstanding Continuing to Rise

    https://www.mcoscillator.com/learnin...nuing_to_rise/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  15. #1220

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    I love those tweets for VST trading..... The trend remains up and the extremes continue to get more extreme.....

    SentimenTrader
    @sentimentrader

    5m
    A new record in Trump trumpeting stocks over the past 50 sessions.

    Make America Greedy Again.

    https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  17. #1221

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Since I continue to bring up extremes..... QE to Da-Moon......

    https://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/ind...mething-in-it/
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  19. #1222

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    More extremes..... However, the trend remains UP! I trade VXF only when long.... ( S Fund) How can you short a market trending up like this one? Many have tried..... You can pick up some beer money VST trading, but no matter how over priced it becomes the trend remains up. Don't fight the Feds.... I remain in cash based on the Risk/Reward data I use for trading..... What a show!

    Daily - Up


    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...03&a=714731912


    Weekly - Up

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...48&a=714729663

    Monthly - Up


    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%2...07&a=713480033





    SevenSentinels


    @SevenSentinels
    8h8 hours ago

    The Right Side of The Bookshelf Producing New Record Sentiment Extremes

    Weekly Article at 4 PM Monday, Martin Luther King Day, 1-20-2020

    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  21. #1223

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Well, I know the LOLR is down and several other MT indicators are giving out warning signals.


    SevenSentinels

    LOLR Down As Markets Back & Fill Intra-Day

    https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?r...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

    However, the closing prices of the SPY, VXF, IWM, and the SOX ( indexes a track for my trading system) all closed "ABOVE" their 10 DMAs again today. That means remain long for my trend trading system. MT positions are for funds like TSP were you have limited moves, I would need to see a move below the 20 DMA and the MACD turning down. I don't guess at the turns. I trade what is happening using my indicators and not what I think will happen. The answer is yes? I do get whipsawed sometimes, but with unlimited moves at Vanguard it's easy to trade the daily..... I'm looking for the big runs that stay above the 10 DMA for weeks....

    (Note that the 20 DMA for VXF was only been breached once since they started not QE, and it still did not produce a sell signal....) A very nice trending move and I use the daily closing prices for trend trading.



    Bottom Line: The trend remains up, with the LOLR heading down...... I trade the 10 DMA since I can move in and out as often as I want at Vanguard using VXF.

    LOL..... someday it will correct...MAYBE! Still trading some VXX.....

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VX...43&a=714731912
    Last edited by robo; 01-23-2020 at 08:08 PM.
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore

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  23. #1224

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    Default Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )

    Tom McClellan
    @McClellanOsc

    My latest Chart In Focus article, "Small Cap Underperformance Is Not Over", is posted at

    https://mcoscillator.com/learning_ce...e_is_not_over/.

    https://twitter.com/McClellanOsc
    “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore


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