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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #5149

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    It's unusual to see a trend last this long in the VIX.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #5150

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I feel like these last, almost 3 years, have been unusual. I was looking at your premium content this morning and comparing that VIX chart you had in there against the Smart Money below it. Is it me or do they look similar? I guess they probably would mirror each other more closely that I ever gave thought to. Maybe it's just me lol.

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  5. #5151

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yeah, that would make sense since the smart money is usually moving against the grain (getting more bearish the high the indices go, etc.), just as the VIX does.

    And the dumb money moves with the indices.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

  6.  
  7. #5152

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    With rates as low as they were, there was massive investment in speculative ideas from whales like Softbank ($4B loss in Vision Fund) along with an unknown amount of Sovereign Wealth Funds, hedge funds and family offices (Shadow Economy). These were the guys moving that smart money needle. If any of these bets were hedged, like hedge funds used to operate, the trade was likely too large and crowded to even be offset. Sounds so cliche but higher rates popped the bubble.

    Don't forget about the individuals who plowed money that was created out of thin air into crypto, PTON, AMC, Gamestop, SNOW, TDOC, WING, ROKU, etc, who are now down enormously. Celsius network failing had a big part in this, but it also goes to show how ridiculous things got when you could make a 13% yield risk free when treasuries were yielding less than 1%.

    Not much of either investment was even real - in the end it was all money that didn't even exist. The idea of filling startups with cash or giving cash to companies that will soon be gone is not a long term strategy if the company cannot execute on that money. The business cycle worked and did what needs to happen in a capitalism based economy. In this case, I think it's safe to say that maybe one or two of those 50 high flying stocks will break even decades away, but everything else will go to zero or be acquired.

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  9. #5153

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Stocks opened lower on Monday morning, but it didn't take long for the dip buyers to show up and push the S&P and Nasdaq into the green temporarily, but it's still choppy. Small caps are lagging and still down as of this post.

    Bonds and the dollar are up this morning as yields slipped lower with the 10-year Treasury trading back below 2.8%. Commodities like gold, silver and natural gas are down with the strength in the dollar.

    Oil is trading sharply lower with the September futures below $88 a barrel.

    China's economic data has been sluggish lately.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

  10.  
  11. #5154

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Chart of the day from today's Market Commentary:

    China has been in an economic slowdown and their July data has come up short of expectations. Their Central Bank jumped in yesterday and actually cut interest rates. I took a look at their Shanghai Index and noticed something interesting when compared to the S&P 500. The S&P has been lagging behind the Shanghai Index by about a month for the last year.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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