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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4057

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Don't fight the Fed, or did the Fed just throw the S&P back up into resistance again to suck in more buyers?

    On both the short and long term charts, the S&P is near the top of some trading ranges, an area where we've seen a lot of selling come in in recent months. If it keeps a knock'in someone may eventually let it in (break resistance) but it could be a trap. Given the current economic situation, it's tough to be too optimistic, but something interesting is happening here and many on Wall Street are confused and frustrated with this strength in stocks..


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  3. #4058

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Lot of people addicted to 'hope-ium' it seems.

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  5. #4059

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Giving up a 1/3 of the prior day's gains isn't much news, but it was interesting how quickly the indices fell near the close.

    The key was that the 200-day EMA failed to hold for more than a day (for now), and the open gap from Monday may be a lure.



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  7. #4060

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Bonds and gold up near new highs today. Why are the safety trades rallying on a day like today in stocks?

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  9. #4061

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Upstate NY
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Why are the safety trades rallying
    Senate passes legislation requiring U.S.-listed companies to certify "they are not owned or controlled by a foreign government." The law applies to any foreign company listing or raising capital in the United States, but China earned a specific mention.
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/357644...oversight-bill

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  11. #4062

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    It's a head scratcher to me how Apple could be near all time highs in this environment, but today it's losing steam making a possible double top.

    Also, the Naz 100 is lagging as those large tech stocks are stalling after the initial morning rally. Exhaustion?


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  13. #4063

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Another interesting day for the Naz 100. Up at the open, it plummets midday - all the way to the bottom of that trading channel, before the bulls step right up again...


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  15. #4064

    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Missouri
    Posts
    83

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Hi Tom,

    I was wondering if you had any thoughts on where were are at in the psychologic aspects of the trading cycle. This market is so hard to understand. The Fear and Greed index is now above 50, in the midst of a slow climb, now entering into greed territory. Do you feel there is a FOMO sentiment growing? What is the smart money doing? LOL...I guess I need to sign up for your service. I was 50G 25C 25S and exited to 100G today. There are so may gaps behind us and I worry the fallout from the pandemic is not yet fully realized.

    Geno

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  17. #4065

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Geno-

    I've been very wrong about this bounce. I thought it would be a dead cat and eventual test of the lows. Not to be.

    The 50 (now 54) in the Fear / Greed Index is surprising and a good reason why the rally kept going. It probably means there is a lot of cash still on the sidelines.

    I posted this in Thursday's commentary about the "insiders" who seem to be lost as well...

    In my attempt to wrap my head around why the dumb money has been so rewarded in recent years, I went and found a chart of what company insiders are doing right now. I don't think it needs much explanation.



    This chart goes back to 2012 when this indicator's data begins, and possibly about the time when the dumb money was becoming the smartest investors in the world. You can see that something happened in 2014 to insiders, and it's oddly comforting to see that they seem as confused as I am. Apparently they see their own stocks as too pricey as well.




    One of the more obvious explanations is that the smart money, or big money, are expecting a pullback or a test of the lows, so they are sitting on the sidelines with a ton of cash, and cash is the ammunition for market rallies. The dumb money is basking in the rally and the smart money is left to chase, or wait. Chasing is rarely a good option, but it has worked for many over the last couple of months.

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