Page 322 of 339 FirstFirst ... 222272312320321322323324332 ... LastLast
Results 3,853 to 3,864 of 4067

Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #3853

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    We're seeing a nice positive reversal, but it's not always good to trust an early (in the day) reversal. There's too much time for the bears to sell again in the afternoon.
    OK, not surprisingly the early reversal failed. The final hour gives the bulls another chance. Let's see what they've got. Otherwise, the bears will pounce!

  2.  
  3. #3854

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk






  4.  
  5. #3855

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk


  6.  
  7. #3856

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Wow...Your SARS chart got me thinking....so I just scratched out a 50 and a 200 EMA overlay on a 6 month SPX Chart. Threw in ^DJT as a potential future-cast. If that chart I just sketched is right, there is one really ugly bear still waiting to eat any bull that comes out. Have to trade nimble on anything that presents because I don't think there are any long bounces to be made until we find support. Tomorrows action will really be informative.
    Last edited by Mcqlives; 02-27-2020 at 07:46 PM. Reason: added

  8.  
  9. #3857

    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    1,373
    Blog Entries
    6

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post

    Looks like a previous high in the 950 range, lowest low around 790, for a loss of ~17%. For comparison, right now we are down ~12% (2978 from 3393).

    90 days later they were in the 1020 range for a ~29% gain.

    Great find Tom!

  10.  
  11. #3858

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    14,055
    Blog Entries
    11

    Default tsptalk's Market Talk

    I would also throw out that back when SARS was all rage- that drop leading into March 20, 2003 was actually the Invasion of Iraq. The war started on March 20, and that is why the bottom is seen that day on the stock chart, NOT necessarily SARS.

    Although SARS was in the news then, it paled compared to news about the war. What we are seeing today with COVID-19 should not be compared directly with 2003- because SARS wasn’t that big of a deal then, the war was.


    I also think we got far less news via internet in 2003 than we do today. We have much more rapid information flow going today. That might make for faster market swings.

    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

  12.  
  13. #3859

    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Bethesda, MD
    Posts
    1,695

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    We may see some short term snap back rallies, but with noon IFTs it may be difficult to lock those quick gains in with the VIX moving all the needles so quickly. Personally, I would only dabble in the oversold bounces in a nimble trading account. For TSP we're at least going to the the long term support line at some point in the near future. This is a golden & death cross long term chart. We're not even on the oversold slow stochastics. I'd only consider buying stock once we hit that support line, and if the slow stochastics are sub-20 and the VIX has a 60 handle on it... that's buying fear.

    Take the emotion out, we've been a bloated pig for a while now.

    S&P Golden & Death Cross with longterm support.jpg

  14.  
  15. #3860

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Key West FL USA
    Posts
    174

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    If you're in, stay in. Keep buying ever-more worthless shares in ever-greater amounts to maintain your percentages, you're getting a bargain. Then when it reverses you'll climb out faster than you went down. This is what saved me in the Great Recession, got run over but kept buying, had no choice really. I retired as planned 1/1/11. Note I had 18 months to recoup, you'll need all of that and maybe more in this case.

  16.  
  17. #3861

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Monthly charts and Monday starts a new bar for March.

    Second chart is a logarithmic scale.





  18.  
  19. Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I concur!!! I believe this corona crap is going to blow over in two weeks. I also believe the market is going to come back with a vengeance....and when it does,,i'll be there! I have 10 years to recover. Amen.

    ps. I am split between C & S, 50/50, same with allocations. My TSP bal. goes up about $30k/year. Just sayin...

  20.  
  21. #3863

    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    1,373
    Blog Entries
    6

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    Looks like a previous high in the 950 range, lowest low around 790, for a loss of ~17%. For comparison, right now we are down ~12% (2978 from 3393).

    90 days later they were in the 1020 range for a ~29% gain.

    Great find Tom!
    Now down about 15% from our ATHs.

  22.  
  23. #3864

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Gap fill! tsptalk's Market Talktsptalk's Market Talk

    Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

  24.  
Page 322 of 339 FirstFirst ... 222272312320321322323324332 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
tsptalk's Market Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
tsptalk's Market Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
tsptalk's Market Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
tsptalk's Market Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes