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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #3541

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    New high in the S&P 500 (C) this morning, small caps (S) are flat, the I-fund is up moderately with the dollar down, and the Transports are down fairly sharply.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury broke below a bear flag, pushing up bond prices (F).


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  3. #3542

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The energy sector has broken some support that could be troublesome.




    Small caps are cracking a bit, but a strong close above about 1415 could change that...


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  5. #3543

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The 20-day EMA was taken out this morning, but it's early and we've seen crazy reversals lately. So far this is nothing, as far as a dip below recent highs, but the open gap near 2835 is still out there as a potential target if this pullback is going to continue.


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  7. #3544

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    We're seeing some buying after this morning's plunge below the 50-day EMA, but it is battling back.



    This is why the 50-day EMA is so important. Once broken it can become the resistance...


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  9. #3545

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Two birds with one stone...

    The open gap from March was filled this morning, and now this reversal up filled this morning's gap - that can't even be seen now but was between the open near 2860 and yesterday's low of 2873. Now what?




    There is still a very small open gap down near 2740.

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  11. #3546

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Interesting... Here it is again at the top of the old inverted H&S pattern. That's a perfect place for support after a breakout... but if that doesn't hold, we have some trouble. Of course the 200-day EMA is also always a possible target on pullbacks like this.



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  13. #3547

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Bonds are rallying as the 10-year Treasury yield is still trending lower...


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  15. #3548

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk


    The 10-year yield is at 2.382% right now, up off the morning lows after bouncing off the March low. A breakdown would put it to levels not seen since 2017, but there's a long way to go before it hits the 2016 lows. Just an interesting look. I had forgotten they had gotten so low, and the chart looks bearish, making the F-fund a possible good play in the coming months if someone doesn't like stocks right now.




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  17. #3549

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The battle lines are drawn...


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  19. #3550

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    It's still early but the bulls are winning the 50/100 EMA battle that I talked about in Thursday's commentary. The bear flag is now history - IF this rally holds into the close.


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  21. #3551

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Also, bond yields are bouncing off the double bottom, so bonds are off their highs this morning.


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  23. #3552

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Small caps are trying to hold onto that 200-day EMA, and so far showing a little more relative strength compared to large caps after last week's big lag.




    The 10-year yield is moving higher again, so we are seeing the support holding and getting a double bottom bounce, plus a mini break above short-term resistance line, but this is an oversold bounce so far and possibly just a small breather for bond prices.


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