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Thread: Investor Fear Chart

  1. #37

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    AAII at 49% bull this week.

    Consistent weeks around 50% bull tend to signify a top or near top - but not always. This was the case in Jan 2014, Sep 2014, and Jan 2018. All three saw some kind of correction to the downside.

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  3. #38

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    B of A fear chart (below) not telling us anything at this juncture, but CNN is at 86 which either says "don't buy here" or that there is such a flood of assets that continue to come off the sidelines that this reading is okay.

    I tend to think this bullishness will peter out in mid-late December only to see another ramp up in January with the January effect.

    73ac6f4ac22ec6ce75b98d0a80f47149.png

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  5. #39

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    AAII at 43 bull, 22 bear. Ratio this week is 1.98. Ration of 2 or higher is considered bullish extreme.

    "What direction do you think the stock market will be in 6 months?"

    Bears have dropped steadily every week since late September high of around 45.

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  7. #40

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    CNN back to near neutral. CNN is more of an immediate term indicator whereas AAII is a projection 6 months out. AII is still very affected by near term sentiment.

    cnnd.JPG

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  9. #41

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    It's all about the extremes on both ends. March to May 2020 saw multiple weeks with bears over 50, a number not seen with such consistency in many years.

    AAII members have often kept more than half of their portfolios in stocks even when their collective pessimism about the short-term direction of the S&P 500 index has been comparatively high.

    This is not paradoxical. Disciplined investors prevent their short-term outlooks from interfering with their long-term strategies.
    waerwegsd.JPG

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  11. #42

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    AAII, Bulls keep dropping as the market marches higher. Bull/Bear ratio around 1.05, right where we were just before election.

    This week compared to the historical average of bulls is around normal, but the bears are 5% higher than average.

    https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey?

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  13. #43

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    Big jump in bullishness past two weeks, 37.4 to 47.1 today. Bearishness has also dropped 35.6 to 25.4.

    We really haven't seen a good pullback since late September and since then, bullish readings have been quite elevated at levels higher than any seen in over two years. It's a government policy rally and participants are happy as long as the government continues to stimulate or talk more of it.

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  15. #44

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    AAII, even less bears this week, but if the poll was taken today that would surely be higher.

    Not sure where to post this, but here's how markets behave 1st year post election. Correction, then rally? February 2021 was an up month though. Full moon this weekend sometimes marks a turn.

    holdigs.JPG

    https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/6...-is-keeping-us

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  17. #45

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    AAII, even less bears this week, but if the poll was taken today that would surely be higher.

    Not sure where to post this, but here's how markets behave 1st year post election. Correction, then rally? February 2021 was an up month though. Full moon this weekend sometimes marks a turn.

    holdigs.JPG

    https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/6...-is-keeping-us
    Here is why this one is different:

    All those other “1st year Dem’s” have been with new people forming a new government. This time Biden has enough experience to hit the ground running, and has already gotten many of his policy changes that he can do by executive order already issued, and many of his people settling in to the places needed most. I think he’s going to be much quicker on jump starting the economy- if he can just get the 1.9 trillion jumpstart through. That should bolster the markets in the next month.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums


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  19. #46

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    If I'm reading this right, 1st year Dem bottoms out at the end of Feb / beginning of Mar, then its pretty clear sailing from there. And that's where we are today!

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  21. #47

    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    Off topic, but related, the seasonality chart for February did a pretty good job as well of forecasting direction.


    Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


    March is similar with an even more pronounced difference between the first and second half of the month. I'll post that in Monday's commentary.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  23. #48

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    Default Re: Investor Fear Chart

    AAII showing no fear at all with bull bear ratio at 1.5. We'll want to see this down at 1 or lower for indications of a turn.

    40 Bull to 25 Bear which is still quite bullish.

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