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Thread: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

  1. #337

    Default Re: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

    Looking for a bottom to jump up from. I have ammo to reinvest, but the question is, will I see the whites of their eyes in time?
    God bless the United States of America!

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  3. #338

    Default Re: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

    What to do, what to do? I didn't jump in at the bottom and now it looks like we're about to have a major market move. Someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I do not believe we have ever intentionally destroyed our economy before. Previous recessions and depressions were typically market driven, not based on false unemployment numbers. I say the numbers are false, because it's not that there aren't jobs out there, it's the state and local governments that are preventing a majority of people from working. Now that we are slowly reopening, will the market go higher, or do the bears have too strong a hold? Anyone have a magic 8 ball that works well?

    This is typically the time I sell in May and go away, but I hate to lock in the reduction in my account value. Then again, the market is nearing a crossroads and would normally drop like a lead balloon with unemployment where it is. Should I regroup in G and hope for a nice Santa Claus Rally, or risk losing more account value by riding the storm?

    I'm hesitating, because I'm eligible to retire this year and I'm leaning towards leaving at the end of the year. A few more things need to fall in place, one of them being my TSP bottom line. I'm close to an acceptable level, but I'm not quite where I want to be. Anyway, I'm mostly just thinking out loud, but if anyone would like to provide their insight on where they believe the market is going, I would be happy to hear it. Happy investing everyone.
    God bless the United States of America!

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  5. #339

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    368

    Default Re: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

    I think it's mainly a momentum-driven market based on faith and hope right now, bolstered by the Fed. The hopeful side of me believes that when we slowly overcome the health and political factors that allow for the return of more employment and a resumption of what people previously considered normal, the market will zoom to a better place than it is today. However, the other side of me says that there's no way we will quickly see a return of the market we had gotten used to prior to COVID-19 because as the reality of what COVID-19 has done to our economy is slowly going to become more apparent over the next months.

    So, there's probably really great middle-ground opportunities out there. We're apparently in one of those periods right now. How long will that last? I'm betting on the hopeful side, but I'm watching and keeping an eye out daily.

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  7. #340

    Default Re: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Viva_La_Migra View Post
    What to do, what to do? I didn't jump in at the bottom and now it looks like we're about to have a major market move. Someone will correct me if I am wrong, but I do not believe we have ever intentionally destroyed our economy before. Previous recessions and depressions were typically market driven, not based on false unemployment numbers. I say the numbers are false, because it's not that there aren't jobs out there, it's the state and local governments that are preventing a majority of people from working. Now that we are slowly reopening, will the market go higher, or do the bears have too strong a hold? Anyone have a magic 8 ball that works well?

    This is typically the time I sell in May and go away, but I hate to lock in the reduction in my account value. Then again, the market is nearing a crossroads and would normally drop like a lead balloon with unemployment where it is. Should I regroup in G and hope for a nice Santa Claus Rally, or risk losing more account value by riding the storm?

    I'm hesitating, because I'm eligible to retire this year and I'm leaning towards leaving at the end of the year. A few more things need to fall in place, one of them being my TSP bottom line. I'm close to an acceptable level, but I'm not quite where I want to be. Anyway, I'm mostly just thinking out loud, but if anyone would like to provide their insight on where they believe the market is going, I would be happy to hear it. Happy investing everyone.
    Decided to go with my rather unreliable gut and lock in my losses. Hoping to get a nice entry point later.
    God bless the United States of America!

  8.  
  9. #341

    Default Re: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Viva_La_Migra View Post
    Decided to go with my rather unreliable gut and lock in my losses. Hoping to get a nice entry point later.
    Too early. It's the story of my life. I either pull out too early, or too late!
    God bless the United States of America!

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  11. #342

    Default Re: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

    Decided to dip back in for a few days. Hoping the upcoming Independence Day holiday has the market feeling patriotic and very positive! Current allocation: 40G, 30C, 30S.
    God bless the United States of America!


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  13. #343

    Default Re: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

    Maybe I'm stepping off a full speed train, but I've made back much of what I lost in March, so I'm good resting a bit. Current allocation: 100G
    God bless the United States of America!

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  15. #344

    Default Re: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

    Moved a bit back in on 10/29/20. Hoping for a big rally before the election. Looks like that is playing out. We shall see what happens tomorrow depending on whether the election can be called one way or the other. Hoping the market reacts positively, either way. Current allocation: 40G, 30C, 30S.

    I voted. Did you?
    God bless the United States of America!

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  17. #345

    Default Re: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

    Serious question. I've decided to retire at the end of the year. Is it better to take a loan from my TSP account before I retire, or wait until I retire and do a regular withdrawal? The advantage of a regular withdrawal, is that I can take the money only from my regular TSP funds, but it could take 4-8 weeks+ to get the money. I could take a loan out before I retire, but there's that fee at the beginning and the money comes from both regular and Roth funds. I'll also have to make a payment or two before I retire. The loan will convert to a withdrawal once I separate and there's no 10% early withdrawal tax penalty. I'm leaning towards waiting and making a regular withdrawal, but I want to be sure I have enough to cover everything until my pension starts. I've heard horror stories about them taking several months for pension payments to start. What are your thoughts?
    God bless the United States of America!

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  19. #346

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
    Posts
    64,075

    Default Re: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

    VLM if you cash in Annual Leave you should get that first, mine came in two weeks that should hold you over for a while. Best of luck to you!
    1/13/2021
    LS CRUDE Oil
    =$52.91 a Barrel, Daily Status -$.30

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  21. #347

    Default Re: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    VLM if you cash in Annual Leave you should get that first, mine came in two weeks that should hold you over for a while. Best of luck to you!
    That will certainly help. I have some savings as well. I'm probably overthinking it, but I've also been a federal government employee pretty much my entire adult life, so I know if they estimate it will take 4-8 weeks to get a withdrawal, it is likely going to take much longer. Especially when you factor in the COVID issues that are keeping employees teleworking. Same for them getting my pension payments started. I'd rather have the money from a TSP loan and not need it, than need it and not have it.
    God bless the United States of America!

  22.  
  23. #348

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
    Posts
    64,075

    Default Re: Viva La Migra's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Viva_La_Migra View Post
    That will certainly help. I have some savings as well. I'm probably overthinking it, but I've also been a federal government employee pretty much my entire adult life, so I know if they estimate it will take 4-8 weeks to get a withdrawal, it is likely going to take much longer. Especially when you factor in the COVID issues that are keeping employees teleworking. Same for them getting my pension payments started. I'd rather have the money from a TSP loan and not need it, than need it and not have it.
    All will pass and then you can be retired like me!!!Man_relaxes.gif
    1/13/2021
    LS CRUDE Oil
    =$52.91 a Barrel, Daily Status -$.30

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