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Thread: Business Cycle Buy & Hold Strategy

  1. #49

    Default Re: Business Cycle Buy & Hold Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by PessOptimist View Post
    Soooo. Some or one of the cycles were off by a year. Some are close. All are "worth a look". Yup, everything is "worth a look".

    A system works until it doesn't, then you adjust it to show it did actually work. Then if you are smart, you try to sell it.
    True. This holds for every system out there, but all knowledge and theory adds to the predictive analysis that allows for some to take decisive actions when the time is right. It's the same thought process and gut feeling that allows you to lay down the pair of aces because you know you are beat or go all in with a suited 3, 4 which leads to a straight flush.

    All systems are tools that work during one period or another. Knowledge of all the tools allows one to pick the right one for the time it will work for the market and make some money until it stops working. Ask Ebb&Flow, and Intrepid Timer plus many others about timing, systems, and the market.

    Business Cycle, Jaglar, Kitchin and Long Wave theory are tools that have worked in the past but need adjustments to work now. Every system on this message board has been adjusted (Sentiment Survey had adjustments for Bear/Bull market rules, Seven Sentinels was also adjusted a few times)) and some are still being adjusted.

    The point is that all knowledge is flawed at times with the market action and adjustments are made to systems or systems are abandon for other systems that are working right now.

    If you find a system that works all the time I hope you will share.
    100% I August 14 (cob 8/14). Trying it again until Oct.

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  3. #50

    Default Re: Business Cycle Buy & Hold Strategy

    Some new links for the future of the business cycle peaks.

    The Business Cycle and the Future | Armstrong Economics


    armstrong.jpg



    August 2013 is the next predicted correction within the business cycle. All those retiring in 2018/2019/2020 should take heed. IMHO
    100% I August 14 (cob 8/14). Trying it again until Oct.

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  5. #51

    Join Date
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    4,102

    Default Re: Business Cycle Buy & Hold Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by malyla View Post


    armstrong.jpg



    August 2013 is the next predicted correction within the business cycle. All those retiring in 2018/2019/2020 should take heed. IMHO
    I've seen that timeframe (2017-2020) identified as the tail end of Secular WINTER from several different sources for some time now. lucky me-that's the timeframe I'd otherwise be looking at for retiring. as is, retirement may come sooner ready or not. If we make it to 2020, things are bound to begin to get better-according to cycle math, that is unless we've become Japan.
    "life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards" - soren kierkegaard

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  7. #52

    Default Re: Business Cycle Buy & Hold Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by malyla View Post
    Some new links for the future of the business cycle peaks.

    The Business Cycle and the Future | Armstrong Economics
    armstrong.jpg
    August 2013 is the next predicted correction within the business cycle. All those retiring in 2018/2019/2020 should take heed. IMHO
    Sooooo, it's been awhile. The August 2013 to June 2014 mini-correction didn't really happen. There was a minor 3 month blip, but not the year long 10-20% correction. Maybe you could attribute this to Fed manipulation, i.e. QE, but the question is - IS THE BIZ CYCLE STRATEGY INVALID?

    I will continue to look at this strategy as another data point in my trading decisions. The peak of this business cycle is scheduled to occur at the end of Sept/early Oct of this year. At that time I will set the Biz Cycle tracker to the G fund.

    In time, we will see what the future holds
    100% I August 14 (cob 8/14). Trying it again until Oct.

  8.  
  9. #53

    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    inland Northwest
    Posts
    4,102

    Default Re: Business Cycle Buy & Hold Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by malyla View Post
    Sooooo, it's been awhile. The August 2013 to June 2014 mini-correction didn't really happen. There was a minor 3 month blip, but not the year long 10-20% correction. Maybe you could attribute this to Fed manipulation, i.e. QE, but the question is - IS THE BIZ CYCLE STRATEGY INVALID?

    I will continue to look at this strategy as another data point in my trading decisions. The peak of this business cycle is scheduled to occur at the end of Sept/early Oct of this year. At that time I will set the Biz Cycle tracker to the G fund.

    In time, we will see what the future holds
    Malyla, it's good to see you posting again. Wow, I'd forgotten all about that biz cycle graphic, I used to look at it pretty regularly a few years ago then lost track of it. thanks for digging that back up again.

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  11. #54

    Default Re: Business Cycle Buy & Hold Strategy

    Quote Originally Posted by malyla View Post
    Sooooo, it's been awhile. The August 2013 to June 2014 mini-correction didn't really happen. There was a minor 3 month blip, but not the year long 10-20% correction. Maybe you could attribute this to Fed manipulation, i.e. QE, but the question is - IS THE BIZ CYCLE STRATEGY INVALID?

    I will continue to look at this strategy as another data point in my trading decisions. The peak of this business cycle is scheduled to occur at the end of Sept/early Oct of this year. At that time I will set the Biz Cycle tracker to the G fund.

    In time, we will see what the future holds
    Staying true to this long term strategy, the turn into a downturn (Bear market) was yesterday (Oct 7). If there was a tracker BizCycle (in I fund since July 2014), I would be moving it to the G fund until late Oct/early Nov of 2016.

    Personally, I'm not sure if this strategy is relevant anymore, but I will still update it from time to time in case it proves out as correct. Who knows, it may be the European (ECMWF) meteorological model of the investment world - little heralded, but mostly correct.
    Last edited by malyla; 10-08-2015 at 11:22 AM.
    100% I August 14 (cob 8/14). Trying it again until Oct.


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