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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #8161

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

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  3. #8162

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Friday's market action saw the bulls come out swinging and they were able to hold significant gains all the way into the close. The action helped the S&P close with a decent weekly gain, but the DWCPF was still thrown for a sizable loss despite Friday's rally. Friday's market action did give us some things to watch moving forward.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Looking at the charts, we can see the S&P broke out higher and closed with a fresh all-time high. Momentum has yet to turn up, but if the index can get some follow through we should see momentum rise. Price on the DWCPF did manage to retake its 50 dma. That's a start, but this index has been very frustrating for those looking for new highs. Momentum has not turned up here either. The good news is that there seems to be a floor under this index (for now). But the length of this sideways dance is not bullish in my opinion. Still, it can go either way longer term.

    NYAD.png

    Another thing of note is the sharp rise in cumulative breadth on Friday. That often spells follow through in the coming days. The signal was already bullish and this spike on Friday could be a marker for more gains this week.

    Our TSP sentiment survey came in neutral. So, we have a bullish NAAIM reading and now a neutral TSP Talk reading. Both readings were taken before Friday's rally, so that could affect its interpretation to some extent. The surveys may have been more bullish if the readings were taken at the end of the week (my opinion). But it doesn't matter that much as were taking about neutral to bullish sentiment.

    So, as I mentioned above, Friday may have been the start of a new up-leg (at least for the S&P). We'll know soon enough. But the smart money remains bullish, so there is little reason to doubt the bulls ability to continue driving this market.

    I remain bullish on the S&P. I am going to go bullish on the DWCPF for the short term, but still neutral longer term.

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  5. #8163

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    So, maybe the Friday rally was a head fake? Monday's open was less than inspiring and it got worse in afternoon trading as both the S&P and DWCPF were beaten back for sharp losses on the day.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    The pullback did not do a whole lot of damage to the S&P chart, but it did push price back into the upper end of the S&P's recent trading range. Momentum dipped. The DWCPF failed to hold its 50 dma and closed at a fresh multi-week low. Momentum continues to fall on this index.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth fell sharply on the NYSE, but the signal remains bullish.

    So, Friday it looked like we might see some upside follow through given the strength of the rally and Monday opens flat to negative and gets worse from there. The market has yet to fall apart (not that it will), but we have 2 charts that are telling us a different story. The S&P remains a bullish chart, but the DWCPF is neutral. If inflation really takes hold, I'd expect to the see the DWCPF sell off. Are we seeing the early stages of this over the past few months? Is the big money slowly preparing for such a scenario? Money has to flow somewhere, and the S&P has held up pretty well; pullbacks notwithstanding.

    I remain bullish, but cautious on the S&P. I was bullish for the short term on the DWCPF, but I am going back to an overall neutral perspective on that index.


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  7. #8164

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Great analysis. thank you Coolhand

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  9. #8165

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by mmk119 View Post
    Great analysis. thank you Coolhand
    You bet. I've said in the past on occasion that we should not marry our sentiment and be prepared to change it if the market behaves counter to our expectations. We may be in a transitory phase with this market right now. I can't be sure, but the DWCPF is certainly giving us reason to not get complacent. The market likes to ambush traders when they don't expect it. Timing such events are notoriously difficult.

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  11. #8166

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Where do I start? Have you seen all the headlines the past few days? Gas shortages, missiles flying, etc. Then you have some cryptos doing well of late and there's talk they will be doing better down the road. I don't normally get into headlines, but the market is seeing some action that should make one take pause.

    In my last post I said the market likes to ambush traders when they don't expect it. Today felt like one of those days. The S&P took a good loss, but somehow the DWCPF fought back to about the neutral line (did the PPT step in?).

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price gapped lower on both charts at the open. The S&P did recover significant losses, but certainly not all the losses. The DWCPF closed for a modest loss, but price remains below the 50 dma on that chart, so closing neutral is a somewhat hollow victory. Momentum continued to fall today.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth took a good hit today. It's still positive, but is it headed lower?

    Both index charts are now showing action that may be preludes to something bigger down the road. It isn't ugly yet, but I would not want to be in the market should ugly show up. The idea is to grab gains when they present themselves and avoid losses as best you can. We've been in a bull market a long time and we all know it doesn't last forever. Yes, I may be getting ahead of myself, but what if trouble is near? Yes, NAAIM was bullish a few days ago, but what about right now? Our own survey was neutral and I'd say we were closer to reality this time than NAAIM was (to this point).

    I am not sure what to expect. The market is having to digest a lot of information and much of it is negative. However, the market does have a perverse way of shrugging off bad news, but how long can it remain resilient if things go from bad to worse? From what I am hearing, this gas shortage can do some significant damage to the economy. Think about what would happen if gas become scarce. Think about how that would affect trucking, mail delivery and dining to name a few. I am just throwing this out there as food for thought.

    Given the troubling action (not just today, but the sideways movement in the DWCPF and to a lesser extent the S&P) I am going neutral overall on both charts. There is now too much uncertainty at the moment for me to be bullish. It may be time to take a step back and watch what happens in relative safety.

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  13. #8167

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said that both index charts were showing action that may be preludes to something bigger down the road. I said the action (up to that point) wasn't ugly yet, but that I would not want to be in the market should ugly show up.

    We'll, I don't know if ugly showed up, but his little Brother might have. Ugly may be next.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Priced gapped lower on both charts at the open today and drove lower for the remainder of the trading day, closing near the low of the day. Price on the S&P closed short of testing support at the 50 dma. Of course, price is already below the 50 dma on the DWCPF, which is now testing horizontal support around the 2055 area.

    NYAD.png

    Selling was widespread as cumulative breadth fell hard and is now bearish.

    While we've seen this kind of selling on occasion in the past, I am not so sure the market will be recovering quickly this time. I could be wrong, but let's not forget how long the DWCPF remained in a trading range. It seemed to be telling us for weeks something was coming, so this may be just the beginning.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow.

    While the market may find support soon (I am not convinced), I am moving from a neutral sentiment to a bearish sentiment as I suspect market character has changed. I may be ahead of the market, but then again I may not.

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  15. #8168

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM came in bearish today. I suspected we'd see that, which is why I didn't wait to go bearish myself.

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  17. #8169

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls bounced the market on Thursday, but it wasn't without some degree of challenge from the bears.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P remained above its 50 dma, but the retrace was limited given the extent of the selling. The market often bounces after some hard selling, but for right now it's only a bounce. Price on the DWCPF also bounced, but it did probe lower around mid-day. Momentum remains bearish.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth also bounced, but remains bearish for now.

    NAAIM wasted no time getting bearish in this week's reading, which plunged hard. I expected to see a bearish reading, which was one of the reasons I went bearish without waiting for confirmation from this group of money managers.

    For the moment, price on both charts is showing support is holding at the 50 dma on the S&P and horizontal support on the DWCPF. My personal feeling is that support will fail. I don't know that, but with a fresh bearish reading from NAAIM and lots of market concerning news floating around, I'm not sure the teflon is going to hold up. We could continue to see a push by the bulls to drive price back up, but it may not be successful. The pressure really didn't start the past few days, it started months ago on the DWCPF. The big money needs to time to get out of the way in as quiet a way as possible (they don't want to alarm you). Don't expect them to be holding the bag if this market decides to head South again.

    It's too soon to consider getting bullish again, in my opinion. We are also in the weaker part of the yearly cycle (go away in May). I am going to watch from the sidelines for now. I remain bearish.

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  19. #8170

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Friday's trading session saw the bulls rally the market hard, which erased a good deal of the earlier losses, but not all of the losses. The S&P and DWCPF both fell more than 1% on the week. Not bad, considering.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price on the S&P bounced near its 50 dma and retraced more than half of its losses earlier in the week. It's back in its trading range again. Momentum is trying to turn up. The chart itself does not look all that bad from a technical standpoint. Price on the DWCPF also erased more than half of its losses, but this index is a little different because price remains below its 50 dma. This index remains a possible warning of bigger problems for the market down the road if it doesn't recapture a bullish stance; and it's a long way from doing that without some serious rally time. Momentum is trying to turn back up on this chart too.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth bounced hard and is back to a bullish configuration.

    Our TSP Talk sentiment came in neutral overall. I said that the previous one was neutral, but after looking at last week's reading again I'd say it was more like modestly bullish. That doesn't change anything, I just want to update my perception of the reading.

    NAAIM came in decidedly bearish and that cannot be taken lightly. Yes, they may flip bullish again quickly if the action in the market dictates such, but it's a guessing game of sorts what they are thinking in between readings.

    So, we have a mixed picture. The S&P rallied smartly off support at its 50 dma, but the DWCPF remains below that key average. I keep wondering if this a canary in the coalmine. We do have a bullish breadth reading again, which is usually a solid indicator.

    You can get bullish on this picture and justify it, but you can get bearing and justify that too. It is not unusual for a snap back rally to occur after a hard sell-off. But this is also still a bull market. The question is, is this bull market running on empty?

    I cannot get bullish yet on this collective data. The snap back rally may or may not hold. At best I can only be neutral right now because of the struggling DWCPF and a bearish NAAIM. The market could steady itself and appear to be doing at least somewhat well in the short term, but that doesn't mean all is well. Remember, the big money doesn't usually get caught on the wrong side of the market and their pockets are deeper than ours. They can rally this market to trap the bulls and then send it lower (not saying they will).

    I am going to remain bearish for now, but that could change early next week depending on how the market trades.

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