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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #8137

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM came in more bullish than last week. Also notable was that collectively they are not using leverage on short positions. Looks like risk remains to the upside, but I don't know if small caps will join that party the way large caps have. They may go up, but they are fighting resistance (DWCPF).

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  3. #8138

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls had control for pretty much the whole day today. And it was a more even rally, which we really needed.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P gapped higher at the open and never really looked back. Price on the DWCPF also gapped higher, but was almost immediately hit with selling pressure that drove it down quickly in short order. That selling pressure got bought not long after it started and the DWCPF continued on a choppy, but productive day. The DWCPF is still hitting resistance, but today's action gives the bulls hope that fresh highs may be coming before too much longer (that's not a prediction).

    NYAD.png

    Breadth looked much better too, which was not a surprise given the rally in the DWCPF. The signal remains bullish.

    NAAIM came in more bullish today and leveraged shorts were not much in evidence. That's a green light for the bulls as far as this sentiment indicator goes.

    I remain bullish on the S&P and will go modestly bullish on the DWCPF given today's rally and NAAIM bullish stance. It does still need to cut through resistance, but this does remain a bull market and it did show some life today.

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  5. #8139

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls closed out the week last week with solid gains for the both the S&P and the DWCPF. NAAIM has been bullish, so it should not be much of a surprise that price is rising.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P continues to rise to new all-time highs. That chart is showing on overbought condition (RSI), but we know how overbought can get more overbought. The DWCPF continues to struggle against resistance, but it's still rising.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth looks good on the NYSE and is hitting fresh all-time highs.

    The latest TSP Talk sentiment reading shows little change from last week (we remain bulled up). NAAIM is bullish too.

    Unless something changes, the indicators continue to favor the bulls. I remain bullish on the S&P and modestly bullish on the DWCPF.

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  7. #8140

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market took a step back today.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Once again, the DWCPF got the worse of the selling. We can see in the chart that price kissed support at the 50 dma and backed off (up) from that level. For the moment, it's a successful test. But will it get tested again and if it does will it hold?

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth fell today, but the signal remains above the key averages (bullish).

    We'll have to watch how price reacts around the 50 dma on the DWCPF. That's the one real concern that I have. The S&P remains solidly bullish.

    I remain bullish on the S&P and modestly bullish on the DWCPF, but that index has to stay above support.

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  9. #8141

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It looks like the market has reached one of those intermediate term points where price needs to reverse before pushing price up. Both the S&P and the DWCPF were thrown for losses on the day. That's 2 in a row for the S&P and 3 for the DWCPF

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Support at the 50 dma failed on the DWCPF today. This index, which is not exactly falling apart, has not been able to hit a new all-time high since mid-February. And we now have 2 lower highs. But while resistance above is keeping the index in check, support below has keep it afloat. Really, price has gone nowhere in about 2 months (on average).

    Momentum has turned down on both charts. The S&P isn't dealing with resistance like the DWCPF is, but we can see it has marched higher for almost a month with only minor dips along the way, so it shouldn't be a surprise if we get more than token selling after that stretch. Volume is only average.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is also signaling that a turn lower for a few days may be upon us. It's just barely bullish right now.

    It's interesting to me that NAAIM got bullish at a time when the indexes (especially the S&P) were vulnerable to a turn down. I don't want to make much of it because so far this selling in within the norm for the market. I suspect that breadth will turn bearish for a bit before a bottom is in. That's how it's been. The indicators have to get bearish first (typically). We'll see.

    I am going neutral on both the S&P and the DWCPF. I suspect more downside is in store, but I can't be sure of it.

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  11. #8142

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, the indicators were suggesting that a bottom may not be in. I didn't expect serious selling, just enough selling to flip other signals to bearish before turning back up. But Wednesday's rally turned everything right back up.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P retraced more than half of the previous 2 days of losses. Price on the DWCPF pushed back above support at the 50 dma and closed their as well. It still has a lot to prove, however, given it's trading in a range.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth turned back up smartly and remains bullish.

    Today's action was decidedly bullish. I'm still more comfortable with the S&P vice the DWCPF as far as price advancing, but we'll see how things play out for another day or two. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

    I remain neutral, but if the market follows through on today's rally and NAAIM remains bullish, I'll probably get bullish as well. Let's see what happens.

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  13. #8143

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Latest NAAIM reading shows that they remain bullish. I will go from neutral back to bullish on the S&P and remain neutral on the DWCPF.

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  15. #8144

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market was doing relatively well for about half the trading day and then the announcement of increased capital gains taxes was released and that was just the thing the market wanted to hear and it dove on the news. All in all though, the damage was not that bad on the day.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Surprisingly, the S&P got hit harder than the DWCPF, which was trying (the DWCPF) to break resistance around the 2210 area before the selling began. Momentum is falling modestly on the S&P and is flat on the DWCPF.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

    NAAIM came in almost unchanged, which keeps them bullish.

    I am not expecting a lot more selling on the capital gains tax announcement, but the market may feel otherwise and it may not tell us right away. Keep in mind that news is near impossible to use as a predictor of market behavior. Often, the market sees it coming (before we do).

    In any event, I am going bullish again on the S&P given the NAAIM reading and will remain neutral on the DWCPF for now.

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  17. #8145

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Market resilience remains in evidence as Friday's rally demonstrates. For the week, the S&P dipped modestly, while the DWCPF rose moderately.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Looking at the DWCPF, price closed above the previous week's peak and is now ready to challenge or test the March peak. Price on the S&P closed very near its all-time high.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth hit a fresh high on Friday and remains bullish.

    Our TSP Talk sentiment survey didn't change a whole lot and remains bullish, just like NAAIM.

    It would seem that the market remains on a mission to burn the bears. It's been going on a long time now. I found this article today and thought it was at least somewhat accurate. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sh...letely-useless

    I remain bullish on the S&P and will shift modestly bullish on the DWCPF, which still has work to do on the upside.


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  19. #8146

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Interesting article. Makes it sound like a game of musical chairs. We are riding the melt-up until this D-Day for capital markets hits. Then we expect to recognize it and have a chair to sit in when the music stops.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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  21. #8147

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Monday starts the week off on the bullish side as the S&P posted a modest gain, but the DWCPF rallied for more than 1%.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    That rally in the DWCPF saw price close above the March peak and it's now testing the closing February peak. Momentum is rising on the DWCPF, but flat on the S&P.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth hit another all-time high and remains bullish.

    With the DWCPF now showing more life, it is highly likely it will push on to fresh highs. It does need to push past resistance, but since this is still a bull market, are there any doubters that it will fail? NAAIM is bullish and we are bullish. That's been a winning combo most of the time.

    I am now bullish on both the S&P and the DWCPF.

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  23. #8148

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market gave us a choppy trading session on Tuesday. There were no big moves in either direction and the indexes closed not far from their neutral lines.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P does seem to be hitting resistance in the high 4180s. The DWCPF is also hitting resistance (near 2250). Is it near time for another dip? RSI is flat on both charts. Momentum is biased slightly lower on the S&P, but is still rising on the DWCPF.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth dipped modestly and remains bullish.

    I can't read much into today's action, but the market feels like its running out of steam. We may see some weakness soon prior to another possible push to the upside, but that's just a possibility. Since NAAIM was bullish, I suspect the market will get on track to the upside again at some point.

    I remain bullish for now, but watching resistance levels on both charts.

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