Page 673 of 678 FirstFirst ... 173573623663671672673674675 ... LastLast
Results 8,065 to 8,076 of 8129

Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #8065

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,591
    Blog Entries
    1179

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by crommie View Post
    Good evening CH, am I seeing things or do your charts from February 23, 2020 look eerily similar to today's? Your commentary also sounds similar which was followed by your ominous warning on the 24th about a switch being flipped. Any thoughts on history repeating? On a personal note, I hope that your family problems from a year ago resolved themselves for the better.

    Sent from my SM-G892A using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
    Interesting comparison. Very similar to a year ago. As I've said in the past, we don't want to get complacent about the gains. Even NAAIM realizes that this party is not going to go on forever. But, they also realize you don't make money sitting on the sidelines (or shorting) when the market is moving higher. I would not be surprised if a top of some sort is approaching, but it's very hard to predict.

  2.  
  3. #8066

    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Location
    Cape Cod
    Posts
    159

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM only dropped from 110 to 108, so I am hoping this is just a short correction before resuming an upward trend. Staying calm and riding it out...

  4.  
  5. #8067

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Mississippi
    Posts
    441

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by flalaw97 View Post
    NAAIM only dropped from 110 to 108, so I am hoping this is just a short correction before resuming an upward trend. Staying calm and riding it out...

    I am staying put as well, hoping the market reacts like is has the last few times.
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

  6.  
  7. #8068

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,591
    Blog Entries
    1179

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yes, NAAIM is almost unchanged from last week. They certainly do not seemed concerned by the current bout of weakness. Sometimes we have to endure some losses to eventually move ahead. It's a bit unnerving though, given how far this market has climbed.

    I am remaining bullish for now.

  8.  
  9. #8069

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,591
    Blog Entries
    1179

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Profit taking continued today. It really isn't a surprise given how much the indexes had risen over the past 2 weeks or so. Of course, the question is whether it's just another buying opportunity or is it different this time. Last year at this time it was different. But unlike last year, I haven't sensed any switches being flipped (as yet).

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    The charts show us dips along the way as price has steadily climbed. So now we have another dip forming. Volume has been average, so that's not a flag. Momentum has turned down. The selling may not be over; especially if the 50 dma is a target for this bout of weakness.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth took an ugly turn lower today. It's still technically bullish, but it's in danger of getting flipped negative if price keeps falling.

    The big news is that NAAIM did not change much from last week. They are still pretty bulled up. That usually bodes well for the bulls, but last year at this time they were bulled up when we got that big decline, so we want to pay close attention to the action given how high this market has risen.

    I remain bullish for now.

  10.  
  11. #8070

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,591
    Blog Entries
    1179

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears won the weekly price war last week. The S&P and DWCPF both closed for losses on the week (less than 1% on the C and S funds). That's not bad at all and actually bolsters the possibility that this is yet another buying opportunity (DWCPF bounced on Friday). It also doesn't hurt that NAAIM remains bulled up.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    With the recent weakness the charts don't look any different than what we saw with previous dips. Volume is normal. There doesn't appear to be any serious moves toward the exits right now. That's today. Tomorrow or next week could change the picture, or not.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth bounced on Friday and remains bullish.

    The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in bearish this week. That's diametrically opposed to NAAIM. We don't do that often. In fact, as I've stated in past posts, I don't treat our sentiment survey as dumb money. Not when we are collectively aligned to the NAAIM reading as often as we are. But I trust NAAIM more than TSP Talk sentiment reading. Prove me wrong.

    Of course, NAAIM remains heavily bulled up for the new week.

    How can I get bearish on these readings? I can't. Although I understand the angst about a market that seems to be move in just one direction. Eventually, it will be different this time. Is it this time? Maybe. But I have to go with the balance of evidence and that means I remain bullish.

  12.  
  13. #8071

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    hopefully a buying opportunity today and i'm not jinxing things. was already 15%I and 50 S. moved my remaining from G to C.

  14.  
  15. #8072

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,591
    Blog Entries
    1179

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears hit the gates running today, but the bulls countered with buying pressure by late morning into early afternoon. It was not enough. Buying pressure peaked in mid-afternoon and price fell all the way into the close.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    The selling is still out of the ordinary. The charts are showing a short term (to this point) dip after a multi-day rally starting at the beginning of the month. The 50 dma is still below and may be a target for a turn. Volume was a bit more elevated from previous days.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth barely dipped and is moving sideways.

    So the market is continuing to consolidate gains after the recent run-up in price. The selling may not be over and we'll have to keep an eye on the 50 dma should price fall that far.

    I remain bullish overall.

  16.  
  17. #8073

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,591
    Blog Entries
    1179

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears got an early jump on the bulls again today, taking price lower at the open, but the bulls didn't wait long to bottom out the selling pressure and slowly push price higher.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    By the end of the day, the S&P 500 had erased all losses (on the day) and actually closed modestly positive. The DWCPF came close to doing the same thing, but closed moderately lower. Both indexes show price coming near the 50 dma before reversing. It looks like a bottom may be in given the action, but we could see a second test of that key average. We'll have to see. Momentum is still falling. Volume has been rising of late, but it's still not significantly elevated.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth, while not rising, isn't falling apart either. The signal is still technically bullish given it remains above the 2 tracking EMAs, but we can also look at it as neutral overall over the past couple of weeks or so.

    We'll have to see if a bottom is indeed in or not. If price heads back to the 50 dma area then we may be in for another test. A failure in the short term may be a head fake for the bears. But if the selling doesn't stop after the initial failure, we may have something else going on. It could take several days before we know, but it could happen sooner too.

    I remain bullish, but wary.


  18.  
  19. #8074

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,591
    Blog Entries
    1179

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After today's upside follow through of Tuesday big reversal (bottom), the odds just went up that fresh highs may be coming in the days ahead.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Both charts show price poised to challenge previous all-time highs. Momentum looks like it may be getting ready to turn back up. Strength has certainly turned higher and volume was on the robust side. It sure looks like a bottom is in. Now price has to test overhead resistance.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth turned back and is looking more bullish after its sideways dance.

    I think the bulls have retaken control. We'll get a fresh NAAIM reading tomorrow.

    I remain bullish.

  20.  
  21. #8075

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,591
    Blog Entries
    1179

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM came in less bullish this week, but they are still bullish. Still, the shift is not insignificant. I note that they are not shorting much, so it appears they are tempering levered long positions. The volatility and its underlying causes are likely factors in the reduction of long exposure.

    I would say we want to be vigilant about being long right now. In other words, don't get complacent if you're heavy on stocks. There are reasons for this market to head south if the powers that be want it to. Yes, the market may still hit fresh highs, but whether it does or doesn't we want to be ready to take cover. Consider how much risk you are willing to take.

  22.  
  23. #8076

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,591
    Blog Entries
    1179

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I am not liking this reversal much. There have been outages among the brokerages too. Coincidence?

    I'm going to be away from my computer till the weekend, so no update this evening. Watch the 50 dma. If it fails the market may be in trouble.

  24.  
Page 673 of 678 FirstFirst ... 173573623663671672673674675 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes