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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #8053

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls picked up where they left off last week with more impressive gains to start a new week.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Does anyone remember that bump in the road a little over a week ago? Just what was that all about really? Now, we have 6 up days in a row on the charts with fresh all-time highs each of the past 3 days. The DWCPF is back in overbought territory again. Momentum continues to rise and volume is only average. Where are the bears (not that I really care)?

    NYAD.png

    Look at cumulative breadth. It's going vertical again.

    I know many were pounding the table that this market was toast (I was leaning that way for a bit too), but we can see that the bull was only wounded. Now he's mad. I wonder how far this train is going?

    I am now bullish (from modestly so).

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  3. #8054

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market started out the trading session on the weak side today, but the bulls fought back to bring price near to or over the neutral line over the course of the day.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF notched its 7th straight winning session, while the S&P saw its string of 6 wins broken, but not by all that much. The action was not particularly notable in my opinion. Some selling was due, but we see how liquidity appeared to send price much higher prior to noon EST.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth was up again and remains bullish.

    Not much else to add this evening. I remain bullish.

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  5. #8055

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The string of gains was broken to day, but not by much. Trading was up and down, often around the neutral line.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    It isn't much of a pullback, which makes me think we may have more weakness in the short term. Momentum is starting to weaken a bit; especially on the S&P. Nothing dramatic, certainly, but the market may be topping for the moment. The problem is, the bottom may not be far off either (should the bears manage to keep some pressure on). This is one bull that really does need to be respected even as we try not to be complacent about the gains.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth leveled off today. It's still very bullish, but is also showing possible fatigue.

    The market is due for some measure of consolidation, so I'd not be surprised with more weakness in the short term. Maybe we get it, maybe the bulls hold off the bears for a while longer yet, we'll have to see. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

    I remain bullish, but anticipate weakness in the short term.


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  7. #8056

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The latest NAAIM reading shows that they spiked much higher again (bullish). Apparently, they see little risk to being in stocks.

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  9. #8057

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market was choppy again today, but this time it manged to remain on the positive side at the close.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price was up only marginally on the S&P today, but fared better on the DWCPF with almost a 0.5% gain. Momentum has gone flat on the S&P and the DWCPF, but both remain on the positive side. There is a toppy feel to this action, but this market has been very deceptive in the past.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth also looks toppy, but remains bullish.

    The big news (always on Thursday), is that NAAIM got bulled up once again. We could still see some weakness in the short term given the toppy looking charts, but with the smart money as bulled up they are then any downside we get is likely going to be limited. I really looks like risk remains to the upside.

    I remain bullish.

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  11. #8058

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls ended Friday and the week in positive territory. The DWCPF continues to lead the way.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    It was a bit of a roller coaster on Friday, but the bulls pushed price higher by the close. In fact, price rallied rather hard in the final minutes of Friday's trading session. Momentum is still positive. We can also see that price remains well above the 50 dma on both charts.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth has been largely sideways for a few trading days now, but the signal is still bullish.

    The TSP Talk sentiment survey saw a drop in bullishness and now more neutral that bullish. However, NAAIM is very bulled up heading into the new week.

    Futures are positive (so far) this evening. We may be in for more of the same boring upward bias .

    I remain bullish.

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  13. #8059

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thanks CH,

    Always informative.
    May the force be with us.

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  15. #8060

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market had another somewhat volatile and choppy day to start the new trading week.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    This time, the bulls came up short, but not by much. But really, some measure of a pullback is needed, though this is pretty shallow for a potential pullback. Perhaps the selling isn't done.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth continues to track sideways, but remains bullish.

    Futures are modestly lower this evening. We may see more of the same for Wednesday's action.

    I remain bullish overall, but anticipate selling in the very short term.

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  17. #8061

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH looks like some more selling in tech and S fund down quite a bit now.
    This is probably healthy for consolidation? I hope so.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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  19. #8062

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ToddB View Post
    CH looks like some more selling in tech and S fund down quite a bit now.
    This is probably healthy for consolidation? I hope so.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Given the huge gains that the S fund has had, I would expect that when any selling does happen (like now) that the losses would be healthy too. We'll get another NAAIM update tomorrow, but they were buying with both hands last week.

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  21. #8063

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears tried to take the market down today, and while they had some success it was limited. Small caps got hit hard early, but the bulls countered with buying pressure; erasing about half of the losses on the DWCPF by the close. The bulls also managed to bring price back near the neutral line on the S&P.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Overall, we have limited damage on the charts. I would argue we don't really have any if we allow the market to breath a bit. Today was an exhale. However, I don't know if we have a bottom either, so the downside pressure may not be over just yet.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth struggled a bit again today, but it's really holding up fairly well and does remain bullish; albeit under pressure.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow, so we'll see if they are still as bullish now as they were a week ago. Till then, I remain bullish.

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  23. #8064

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Good evening CH, am I seeing things or do your charts from February 23, 2020 look eerily similar to today's? Your commentary also sounds similar which was followed by your ominous warning on the 24th about a switch being flipped. Any thoughts on history repeating? On a personal note, I hope that your family problems from a year ago resolved themselves for the better.
    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Last week, the market pulled back. The market has been fighting early weakness at the open of late, but so far the technical damage is nil.

    Attachment 45474
    Attachment 45473

    The S&P fell almost 1.25% on the week, while the DWCPF only lost about 0.3%. The charts still look quite healthy.

    Attachment 45472

    Breadth dipped, but it remains bullish.

    The CBOE closed bearish on Friday. That means selling pressure may bleed into Monday. TRIN and TRINQ were flat (neutral). NAAIM remains very bullish, so this weakness is not likely to last or do any serious technical damage.

    Monday looks bearish, but I am looking for a turn back up at any time. I remain bullish.
    Sent from my SM-G892A using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
    Disclaimer: I have absolutely no idea what I am doing.


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