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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6625

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Iím thinking a lot about what you are saying Coolhand- and I think you are right- except that the trade war is throwing a monkey wrench into everything- so I am going to exercise additional caution- I too think we saw some great firming bottoming the last couple of days- EXCEPT the wild card of Trump trade war tariffs is scaring too many people. Maybe that is just a better buying opportunity tomorrow!


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  3. #6626

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Maybe we aren't going to test that 50 dma after all. After 2 successive moves to the upside, with a lot of stuff starting to turn up, the market came crashing down on Friday. I can't say I am entirely surprised as I expected volatility to remain with us. But the move lower wiped out much of the earlier gains.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    On the plus side, the 200 dma held on the S&P 500. But momentum and breadth turned down. In fact, breadth is neutral and not far from flipping negative again should the market test the lows again.

    The options show the OEX neutral, while the CBOE is bullish. What is very interesting is that TRIN closed very high, while TRINQ closed very low. That sounds like chop on Monday. NAAIM is split between bulls and bears. The fact that NAAIM is more bearish than its been in a long while may not be a bullish sign.

    I am backing off my bullish disposition for now, though I am not outright bearish either. The charts remain in no man's land with both sides battling hard for control of market direction. The market can go either way in my opinion and volatility will likely continue.

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  5. #6627

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After gapping to the upside at the open, the market biased higher until about 2 p.m. and then proceeded to give back the bulk of some nice gains all the way into the close.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So, the market closed mixed overall. The 50 dma's continue to fall as the sideways volatility continues largely just above the 200 dma.

    The options are neutral heading into Tuesday. Breadth is neutral and struggling a bit.

    Given today's rally could not be sustained, I remain cautious about the upside prospects for this market. It remains possible that support fails, so I am not making any big upside bets. But I am also not doing anything on the short side. I prefer to have most of my position(s) parked in cash at this time, though I am 100% stocks in TSP. That may change soon depending what the market eventually does when it gets out of its current trading range.

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  7. #6628

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The battle along the 200 dma (support) continued on Tuesday as price pulled further away from it on a nice rally. But that rally failed to close above Thursday's high. That's not a major issue, but it does show that price is hitting resistance on the top of its current trading range.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum turned back up. Breadth looked very good today. The 50 dma's continue to fall even as the 200 dma is still rising. The DWCPF appears to have kissed its 50 dma, but did not break it.

    The options show the OEX neutral, while the CBOE is bearish. My intermediate term system is one signal away from going positive.

    Will the volatility continue? It very well might as price slowly gets compressed between support and resistance. I remain neutral.

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  9. #6629

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The tug-of-war continued today as the S&P 500 got hit with a moderate loss, while the DWCFP posted a modest gain. The S&P is hitting resistance below the 2675 area. The DWCPF is flirting with its falling 50 dma, but has not yet closed above it. Volume was anemic.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Heading into Thursday, the OEX is bearish (smart money), while the CBOE is neutral. Breadth is positive, but it stalled today. I don't have much to go on heading into Thursday, but the smart money is bearish, so we could see more selling. The fact that this is a news driven market should give you pause if making any big bets in the short term.

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  11. #6630

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls managed to push the indexes to the upside today. Price on the S&P 500 is still fighting resistance and it's now hitting 3 week highs. Can it jump the creek? And even if it does, will it eventually make a lower high? The 50 dma remains to be tested too.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF closed above its 50 dma. That's bullish for moment, but will price make a lower high on this chart too? Volume remains on the low side, which is not exactly inspiring for the bulls. But at least in moving in the right direction.

    The OEX is leaning heavily bearish this evening. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM backed off on their bearishness, but they are still showing some respect for the volatility by not getting overly bullish.

    My intermediate term system flipped positive. Breadth remains positive and moved higher on the day.

    With futures pointing lower this evening and the OEX bearish, I suspect the market is going to give something back on Friday. Overall, the market is looking favorable for the bulls.

    Unfortunately, a simple tweet can change things quickly. And I don't have a tweet indicator.

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  13. #6631

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    100g

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  15. #6632

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Short answer...yes, it can jump the 50 EMA creek. 26/46 aaii bull/bears, 18 VIX, is the tell.

    Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk

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  17. #6633

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As expected, the market gave back a bit on Friday, though it wasn't all that much. Since the bulls have the edge overall, the downside may be resilient at this point.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    However, the S&P 500 has not tested its falling 50 dma yet and the DWCPF, which closed above its 50 dma on Thursday, closed right on that key average on Friday. Momentum is positive, though not robust. Volume remains on the low side.

    The options are neutral overall for Monday. NAAIM is neutral. TSP Talk is more bullish than I'd expect given the volatility. I view that as bearish. TRINQ closed at a high level Friday, which is bullish for Monday. Breadth is positive.

    Overall, the bulls have the nod. Key resistance levels could be a problem for the bulls, however, and the market remains susceptible to news headlines. I am neutral for next week.


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  19. #6634

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    No news will be good news this week, I predict. Overcooked volumes on short futures/instruments to fade.

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  21. #6635

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    No news will be good news this week, I predict. Overcooked volumes on short futures/instruments to fade.

    Sent from my SM-J320P using Tapatalk
    Let's hope the missile strikes yesterday don't bleed over to the markets on Monday. Fortunately, it appears the saber rattling has subsided for now.
    May the force be with us.

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  23. #6636

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market rallied smartly Monday and held the bulk of its gains into the close.

    S&P 500.png

    I'm just posting one chart this evening. You can see that price on the S&P 500 kissed its falling 50 dma today. Momentum remains on an upward tack, though strength is nil. Volume remains on the lower side.

    Breadth is rising and is solidly positive. The options are neutral.

    As I've indicated the past couple of days, the bulls have control right now and I would not be surprised if the S&P 500 closed above its 50 dma this week. If it does, we have to look for a resistance at a possible lower high, which will be in the 2725 area.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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