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Thread: amoeba's Account Talk

  1. #2101

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Another day (2/9/16) of moderately elevated trade volume and ^VIX, but not extreme, make this a hard call:

    It nevertheless ate further at all of our fund prices. Looks like preliminary bottom-fishing/knife-catching with no conviction. I'm staying out. Yellen before Congress tomorrow while bank stocks weaken as savers are punished by low interest rates at one end, and no where to go in this evolving bear market on the other.

    Please raise those rates already so I can pull 3% in a money market before it is all eaten alive by inflation. No more excuses. Just do it.

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  3. #2102

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Please raise those rates already so I can pull 3% in a money market before it is all eaten alive by inflation. No more excuses. Just do it.
    you will not get your 3% in a money market until real inflation is at 5%. that is the way the blood-tick safe-interest game works.
    100g

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  5. #2103

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Well: there were times (1992) when my savings account pulled in 8%, and I dunno if inflation was 11%, but thems were the days, long gone:

    Back to the present; today (2/10/16) witnessed IMO an extremely bearish reaction to unexpectedly dovish remarks by the FED chairwoman ("....market conditions....", remember?). Sold hard at the close to flatness, as another holiday weekend approaches.

    Do I think there will be opportunities? Perhaps, but like the last one (1/29/16), they will be hard to presage and short in duration, until a true bottom is put in.

    So what am I thinking that is right now, you ask? Not 1,800; not 1,650; not 1,500; in the SPY. Nope. All too high.

    Somewhere in the neighborhood of no more than 1,300 by end of this year feels about right to go all in. I will remain picky and partial in my investments until then. Or in F fund if there is a bond sale, which there hasn't been recently.

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  7. #2104

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Man:

    This (2/11/16) is a tough call. Volumes and declines are piling up - but not, that, much (200 million SPY (not 400-500);-1-2% drops; not bigger or with gaps). Futures been flat, accelerate overnight one way, flop all over the place until the open, and then the market goes every which way but loose until the IFT deadline.

    I feel like buying into a little bit of whatever's on sale. Just dunno if its the right time or worth it.

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  9. #2105

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Man:

    This (2/11/16) is a tough call. Volumes and declines are piling up - but not, that, much (200 million SPY (not 400-500);-1-2% drops; not bigger or with gaps). Futures been flat, accelerate overnight one way, flop all over the place until the open, and then the market goes every which way but loose until the IFT deadline.

    I feel like buying into a little bit of whatever's on sale. Just dunno if its the right time or worth it.
    Well - I walked the walk, bought, got out, and made some money. Hip hip hurrah to fractions. And now is not the time to hope for anything more out of this phony, BS, rumor-of-an-oil-deal, based rally. I heard some analysts talking about the preceeding decline as "panic" selling. C'mon people. Since when is 200 million SPY "panic"? Nope - this is no panic - this is an orderly re-pricing of stocks from inflated P/E and declining forecasts. We're just lucky that, in its early stages (yes there's more downside to come, soon, IMO) that these rumors have some effect.

    As it moves into the next, more decisive, downward wave, volumes and volatility will pick up and be more sustained. That - in addition to other factors - will force the SPY well below its current 52-week low of ~1,820. Just lop off another 20-30% from there. And I don't mean next year, I mean I think this will start over the next month and then move so fast for consecutive days it will take the breath out of you.

    Who wants to be impaled by that falling knife? Not me.

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  11. #2106

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    Well - I walked the walk, bought, got out, and made some money. Hip hip hurrah to fractions. And now is not the time to hope for anything more out of this phony, BS, rumor-of-an-oil-deal, based rally. I heard some analysts talking about the preceeding decline as "panic" selling. C'mon people. Since when is 200 million SPY "panic"? Nope - this is no panic - this is an orderly re-pricing of stocks from inflated P/E and declining forecasts. We're just lucky that, in its early stages (yes there's more downside to come, soon, IMO) that these rumors have some effect.

    As it moves into the next, more decisive, downward wave, volumes and volatility will pick up and be more sustained. That - in addition to other factors - will force the SPY well below its current 52-week low of ~1,820. Just lop off another 20-30% from there. And I don't mean next year, I mean I think this will start over the next month and then move so fast for consecutive days it will take the breath out of you.

    Who wants to be impaled by that falling knife? Not me.

    Me neither. Sitting out for awhile to see how things go in March/April. Maybe dip a toe in now and then and get out to try and make my 5% target for the year in increments.

    Frank


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  13. Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    "A bird in the hand" he says, and it's looking like he was right! I skipped dessert, paid the bill and left.

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  15. #2108

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    What a confusing irrational day (2/24/16):

    Oil inventory builds for the 5th week out of the last 6; new home sales miss; and what now? oil and the market go up?
    I am sleuthing the usual suspects for a basis for the mid-day reversal and am not finding it; perhaps pushing against technical bounds, or maybe Dallas Fed chairman Kaplan's remarks.
    Scratching my head on this day's action. Any other ideas of what's going on?

    Oh well - F-fund held up pretty well but its pushing against the recent October 2015 highs so I'm paying attention to it.

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  17. #2109

    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    642

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Agreed! You could argue we could go up or down but why did Oil go up. Who would buy into a glut?

  18.  
  19. #2110

    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Boiled Peanut, Georgia, USA
    Posts
    60,837

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    The Market is NNUUTS!anxiety.gif
    04/02/2020
    CRUDE Oil
    =$25.32 a Barrel, Daily Status +$5.01

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  21. #2111

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by pmaloney View Post
    Agreed! You could argue we could go up or down but why did Oil go up. Who would buy into a glut?
    Maybe the same people who bought into it today? Tom says in his commentary that the market is following oil; oil is following what now? Nothing would surprise me tomorrow (2/26/16).

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  23. #2112

    Default Re: amoeba's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    What a confusing irrational day (2/24/16):

    Oil inventory builds for the 5th week out of the last 6; new home sales miss; and what now? oil and the market go up?
    I am sleuthing the usual suspects for a basis for the mid-day reversal and am not finding it; perhaps pushing against technical bounds, or maybe Dallas Fed chairman Kaplan's remarks.
    Scratching my head on this day's action. Any other ideas of what's going on?

    Oh well - F-fund held up pretty well but its pushing against the recent October 2015 highs so I'm paying attention to it.
    Maybe next time I'll read my own post before waiting too long and end up averaging out on a down day (for F). There should be some real fireworks next week with primaries, jobs, and more. I don't think there's much of a chance to have a 3rd up week in a row; but I didn't think there would be a 2nd either.

    Another month, another 2 IFTs to roll the dice.

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