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Thread: James48843 Account Talk

  1. #913

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    OK - well, I don't know what's going on.

    I just got this weird feeling in the pit of my stomach. It's NOT the "ichy hair on my scalp" thing. I can't put my finger on it.

    But it makes me feel uncomfortable today. I don't know why.

    Maybe it has to do with the Shiller thing I posted on the other page (that he "sees bubbles everywhere")

    Maybe it has to do with manufacturing output falling for the first time in a long time.

    Maybe it has to do with more uncertainty over the fate of the guy in the White House (Don't get me started), or the fact that yesterday they said we were going to send Armor to go protect oil wells in Syria (Oil wells? But not Kurds??? )


    Anyway- whatever it is, i's something in my gut. And it isn't right.

    SO I am taking my own hint, and moving the bulk of my $$ over into "G" fund today.

    Happy Friday. Wish me safety.

    At close of business (COB) today I will be moving to : 70% "G", 10% "F", 5% "S", 5% "I", and 10% "L Income".


    Thanks!
    I hate those feelings.

    Good luck
    May the force be with us.

  2.  
  3. #914

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Valatie, NY
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    204

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    OK - well, I don't know what's going on.

    I just got this weird feeling in the pit of my stomach. It's NOT the "ichy hair on my scalp" thing. I can't put my finger on it.

    But it makes me feel uncomfortable today. I don't know why.

    Maybe it has to do with the Shiller thing I posted on the other page (that he "sees bubbles everywhere")

    Maybe it has to do with manufacturing output falling for the first time in a long time.

    Maybe it has to do with more uncertainty over the fate of the guy in the White House (Don't get me started), or the fact that yesterday they said we were going to send Armor to go protect oil wells in Syria (Oil wells? But not Kurds??? )


    Anyway- whatever it is, i's something in my gut. And it isn't right.

    SO I am taking my own hint, and moving the bulk of my $$ over into "G" fund today.

    Happy Friday. Wish me safety.

    At close of business (COB) today I will be moving to : 70% "G", 10% "F", 5% "S", 5% "I", and 10% "L Income".


    Thanks!
    I did that yesterday James48843 Account Talk

    Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
    Expected FERS Retirement; December 2028
    The Avatar is my Hammarlund SP-600 1950's Navy Communications Receiver.
    (Although, I was in the Army)

  4.  
  5. #915

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    Default James48843 Account Talk

    Ok- listen here-

    In the fall of 1987, I was walking down the hall at my university, and I heard the guy in a classroom tell another guy ďuse your student loan money to buy stocks! They just keep going up, and up. You canít lose- itís a trend, and you just gotta get with it!Ē

    Well, less than a week later, the market crash of October 87 happened.

    Iím telling ya- something is scaring the heck out of me right now. The economy is ok, but it is NOT great. There are blinking signs all around saying things arenít quite right. I canít put my finger on them all, but I am concerned - and it is causing me- a guy who normally stays invested, to sit on the sidelines right now- watching a +5% or more gain in a single month- its m mi asking me nervous.

    Heck- Iím just saying- at some point, the market needs a breather. Iím dizzy at this rapid ascent. I need some oxygen.



    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

  6.  
  7. #916

    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Thanks for the warning. I hope you're wrong but we know something is going to happen eventually.

    One thing I may differ on, and you probably know I'm usually more defensive, is that stocks have been moving sideways for about two years now. Lots of rapid ascents, but several rapid declines too, so it feels like a consolidation. But yes, historically speaking, stocks are still at very high P/E levels. The question is whether the market justifies those high valuations. 0% interest rates kept stocks afloat for many years, and here they are going down again. Is it different this time? Maybe so.

    By the way, the S&P was actually up 2% for the year in 1987 despite that devastating crash. And it was up every year from 1982 to 1989.

  8.  
  9. #917

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    What a strange day.

    What a strange week/month/etc.

    I'm moving to the sidelines today- just become I'm over 12% on the year, and we're at what I consider a kind of a lofty level.

    So I just moved to :

    "L-Income= 30% "
    G-fund = 55%
    "F -fund = 05%"
    I -fund = 10%

    Effective close of business today. My second move of the month is to safer and more secure positions.

  10.  
  11. #918

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    My gut is telling me we just entered an extremely volatile period of time, with an expectation of big swings.

    i'm out right now- and going to stay on the sidelines to better understand to swings to come.


  12.  
  13. #919

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    What a strange week.

    Throwing up my hands. Iím back in starting Monday. The dog wagged me.

    Moving to :

    C=30%
    S=60%
    I=10%

    Effective COB Monday.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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  15. #920

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    I feel a disturbance in the force.

    Yes- it is clear now. Itís time to move away. The force is about to rupture.





    IMG_5843.JPG

    Moving to a new position outside the Death Star.

    G= 80%
    F = 15%
    C = 02%
    S = 02%
    I = 02%

    Moving to the safety of the Imperial Battle Cruiser.

    Good luck!



    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

  16.  
  17. #921

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    I feel a disturbance in the force.

    Yes- it is clear now. Itís time to move away. The force is about to rupture.

    Moving to a new position outside the Death Star.

    G= 80%
    F = 15%
    C = 02%
    S = 02%
    I = 02%

    Moving to the safety of the Imperial Battle Cruiser.

    Good luck!



    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
    Interesting distribution. Good Luck and have a great 2020.
    May the force be with us.

  18.  
  19. #922

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    Mark this day in your logbooks-


  20.  
  21. #923

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    OK_ Well, that disturbance in the force was just a little tremor in the Iraq area.

    Back to the party.

    Moving now to 50% "C" fund; 20% S fund, and 30% I fund, as I feel a falling dollar will help internationally, and the fear around the Iraq/Iran war subsiding in the week ahead. They are only going to target Trump properties. I won't be checking in to Maralargo anytime soon.

    I'm being the contrarian here. Wish me luck.

    Cheer! Effective COB TOMORROW (Tuesday).

  22.  
  23. #924

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    Default Re: James48843 Account Talk

    So I saw this movie last night- for the first time ever.

    "THE BIG SHORT".

    Saw it on PLUTO TV.

    If you haven't seen it, I highly recommend it. It was both very insightful, AND funny, in a dry-humor kind of way- just the way I like my humor.

    Enjoy:



    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short_(film)

    Go find it and watch it this week. You'll enjoy it!

    Or TEN TIMES your money back!

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