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Thread: The Hindenburg Omen

  1. #97

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    No signal for the 7th, but there was a 3rd signal yesterday, August 8th. That 3 signals in 4 days, quite a "cluster", as these guys call it (which starts a new event, I am assuming). Some quick facts based on historical results of official signals:

    73% chance there will NOT be a major stock market crash!

    Decline of at least 2-5% -- 92% chance
    Decline of at least 5-8% -- 77% chance
    Decline of at least 8-10% -- 54% chance
    Decline of at least 10-15% -- 39% chance
    Decline of more than 15% -- 27% chance
    Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?

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  3. #98

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n View Post
    Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?
    That's actually the chance of a decline after the 2nd signal. One of the requirements for an official event is 2 signals within xx days of each other (somewhere around 30 days, sorry can't remember exactly), the 2nd being a "confirming signal". So this 3rd signal doesn't change anything really, just adds to the cluster. It's just saying that market polarity (# stocks hitting all-time highs and # stocks hitting all-time lows) is growing and may result in some fear/panic selling soon.

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  5. #99

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n View Post
    Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?
    And I don't know the answer to your second question. I wish I did. Interesting thought. I could look it up later, maybe this weekend sometime.


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  7. #100

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    That's actually the chance of a decline after the 2nd signal. One of the requirements for an official event is 2 signals within xx days of each other (somewhere around 30 days, sorry can't remember exactly), the 2nd being a "confirming signal". So this 3rd signal doesn't change anything really, just adds to the cluster. It's just saying that market polarity (# stocks hitting all-time highs and # stocks hitting all-time lows) is growing and may result in some fear/panic selling soon.
    Then do you know when the percent decline would be measured from? The 1st signal, 2nd signal, or last signal? I'd assume the 2nd signal if that is the official event.

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  9. #101

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n View Post
    Then do you know when the percent decline would be measured from? The 1st signal, 2nd signal, or last signal? I'd assume the 2nd signal if that is the official event.
    Yes it should be the 2nd signal for that reason. I'll try to dig in and confirm that the statistics reflect that later as well.

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  11. #102

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Dow down 130 - Oh, the humanity!


    (I assume it's not too soon for that joke.)
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  13. #103

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Here is another "doom and gloom" report that ties in:

    "Dr. Doom says- crash coming."

    Dr. Doom: A 1987-style crash is coming - Yahoo! Finance

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  15. #104

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    I think he'll be on CNBC's Fast Money today at 5 PM ET.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  17. #105

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Hindenberg Omen spotted just outside of Ardmore, Oklahoma.....


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  19. #106

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Nice writeup of the Hindenberg Omen over in the Christian Science Monitor-
    Hindenburg Omen: Time to sell your stocks? - CSMonitor.com

    They are saying there were five Omen signals in the last eight trading sessions.


    I bailed today. I believe in that stuff.

    Good luck.

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  21. #107

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by k0nkuzh0n View Post
    Are those percent chances for 1 signal? Does the probability change for multiple signals like what has occured?

    A recent post over at Albertarocks' TA Discussions shows some new, compelling research regarding HO signals. To paraphrase, the probability of / severity of a decline has no correlation to how many signals per HO event, or how closely clustered they are. That pretty much hits right on that 2nd question of yours.

    But, the real gem in the research is the confirmation that the pace of the rising market before a confirmed HO is a direct indicator (based on almost 30 years of data) of the severity of the upcoming decline. More or less, the faster we go up before the HO, the farther we go down after. This last ride clocks in as the fastest ever. Strap in!

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  23. #108

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Great stuff, bmneveu! Keep it coming!
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.


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