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Thread: The Hindenburg Omen

  1. #73

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Ooo scary well we have the mild decline behind us already. oh the huge manatee!
    I like TSPTalk and I think most people here are well-intentioned but if I followed their advice, I'd be hunkered down in my basement with a thousand cans of tuna fish.

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  3. #74

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Hindenburg Omen Creator: ‘I’m Hunkering Down for Possible Rough Ride’

    "In a chat with MoneyBeat Sunday evening, Jim Miekka — a blind former high-school physics teacher and the newsletter writer who devised the Hindenburg Omen — confirmed all the criteria were met on Friday that triggered the indicator. He said he’s still invested in the market, for now, and is waiting for “a strong up day this week” before he gets out of stocks and potentially starts shorting the market."

    Hindenburg Omen Creator: 'I'm Hunkering Down for Possible Rough Ride' - MoneyBeat - WSJ

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  5. #75

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    That's it. I'm bailing out.


    The Hindenberg Omen has proven enough to me over time that I seriously think it bears paying attention to. Yes, it's playing on my fears- but I'll go with it today and bail out just based on the second occurance as outlined above.


    Thanks for posting, Tom. I hadn't seen it before, and am bailing now.

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  7. #76

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Hindenburg Omen Creator: ‘I’m Hunkering Down for Possible Rough Ride’

    "In a chat with MoneyBeat Sunday evening, Jim Miekka — a blind former high-school physics teacher and the newsletter writer who devised the Hindenburg Omen — confirmed all the criteria were met on Friday that triggered the indicator. He said he’s still invested in the market, for now, and is waiting for “a strong up day this week” before he gets out of stocks and potentially starts shorting the market."

    Hindenburg Omen Creator: 'I'm Hunkering Down for Possible Rough Ride' - MoneyBeat - WSJ
    That's 2 signals in exactly a month and a half.

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  9. #77

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    FIVE instances of the Hindenberg Omen within a very short period of time.

    Even the TV guys have noted it.

    Cashin: Hindenburg Omen Now Raising Alert Flags - Video on NBCNews.com

    Danger- danger- danger.

    She's going down.

    hinden.jpg

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  11. #78

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    If you missed it, see today's commentary for prior instances of 5 HO signals in a 2 week period.

    http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tspt...ther-omen.html

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  13. #79

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    FIVE instances of the Hindenberg Omen within a very short period of time.

    Even the TV guys have noted it.

    Cashin: Hindenburg Omen Now Raising Alert Flags - Video on NBCNews.com

    Danger- danger- danger.

    She's going down.

    hinden.jpg

    if people expect it, it wont happen.

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  15. #80

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    HO issued another signal this past Wednesday, June 19. Quite a cluster for something that doesn't officially happen very often (last official event was August 2010). And it will stop posting signals soon when the 50 day MA turns south, as it has to be moving up for the HO system to be "online" and able to issue a signal.

    April 15th - First signal since August '10. The following 3 days also come very close to each recording a signal.

    May 31st - Second signal issued. Too many days after first signal to start an official event (missed by 4 trading days).

    June 4th - 3rd signal. Being within 30 trading days of previous signal, this "confirming" signal starts the official HO event.

    June 10th - Another redundant signal.
    June 13th - Very close to another.
    June 19th - Another redundant signal.

    HO Signals SPY chart.png
    FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free

    Here are the stats again, based on past results:

    Major Crash - 27% probability
    Selling panic of at least 10-15% - 39% probability
    Sharp decline of at least 8-10% - 54% probability
    Meaningful decline of at least 5-8% - 77% probability
    Mild decline of at least 2-5% - 92% probability
    The HO signal is an outright miss - 7.7% probability (one out of 13 times)
    Albertarocks' TA Discussions

    June 4th was the official start of the HO event. The S&P closed at 1631 that day. On Thursday we hit a low of 1584, a sell off of 47 points, or 2.9%. The HO said there was a 92% chance of that happening. Unfortunately, odds are we are heading even further south. We have a 77% chance of dropping at least another 2-5%. Ouch.

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  17. #81

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    I am looking for another 5 to 8% for a nice place to jump back in.

    80% of my holdings are out of stocks right now, and have been since the 3rd.

    thank you for the Omen heads up-it saved me lots of bucks.


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  19. #82

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    I am looking for another 5 to 8% for a nice place to jump back in.

    80% of my holdings are out of stocks right now, and have been since the 3rd.

    thank you for the Omen heads up-it saved me lots of bucks.
    Wish I could say the same. I moved "out of the way" to the F fund and am still getting hammered!

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  21. #83

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    Wish I could say the same. I moved "out of the way" to the F fund and am still getting hammered!
    Yeah I'm right there with you buddy. I didn't realize the threat of stopping the money pump would effect the F fund also.
    Don't bias your charts. Show support and resistance. My comments and charts are not trading recommendations.

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  23. #84

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    By the way, as of this morning -- The Hindenburg Omen is officially offline and not issuing any new signals due to the 50 day MA turning south at the open.

    Don't mistake this for thinking we are in the clear though. We are still very much in the thick of the event.

    Edit: Which is possibly coinciding perfectly with Tom's 1987 chart comparison.

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