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Thread: The Hindenburg Omen

  1. #61

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    Wink Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    I'll hide 100% of my assets in the 'G Fund' because something that is correct 25% of the time tells me to...

    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  3. #62

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  5. #63

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    August 23, 2010, 2:01 PM ET

    Yes Folks, Hindenburg Omen Tripped Again

    The Hindenburg Omen reared its ugly head late last week, signaling more doom and gloom as stocks plod along amid the dog days of summer.
    The Omen, a technical indicator which uses a plethora of data to foreshadow a stock-market crash, was tripped again on Friday, marking the second time since Aug. 12 it has occurred. (It also came close on Thursday, but one of its criteria fell short.)

    The latest trigger has prompted the Omen’s creator, Jim Miekka, to exit the market. “I’m taking it seriously and I’m fully out of the market now,” Miekka, a blind mathematician, said in a telephone interview from his home in Surry, Maine. “I would’ve probably stayed in until the beginning of September,” depending on how the indicators varied. “That was my basic plan, until the Hindenburg came along.”

    more: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010...tripped-again/

    ( I am moving out today. )
    Last edited by tsptalk; 08-24-2010 at 11:05 AM. Reason: Cut down article


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  7. #64

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    I wonder how the creator feels about this attention since he seems like a humble guy to me. As for the Wall Streeters who say 'bah Humbug' to this signal, understand this: We have been in a downtrend for the past 4 months.

    Take a look at how commercial the Omen has become, but some astute TSP'ers were able to start threads about it before the Omen jumped the shark. (chart courtesy Google Trends) Parabolic.



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  9. #65

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    That's one reason why I mentioned in my commentary this week, that it may not "work" this time. I mentioned that I saw it on a Drudge Report headline and Glenn Beck mentioned it on a show this past week. Glenn has been pretty good with some political and economic predictions, but I don't think I want to hear him giving technical indicators.

    It's kind of like when our barbers were recommending buying shares of .com stocks - time to sell.

    By the way, I am currently out of stocks and would actually like to see a little crach / sell-off to take advantage of. But this type of bearish exposure scares me to think that I may not get that chance.

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  11. #66

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    CXO Advisory Group, which tries to objectively analyze financial ideas using scientific methods, published an article recently on the Hindenburg Omen.

    http://www.cxoadvisory.com/technical...denburg-omens/

    The article couches its conclusion in the proper scientific weasel-words, but bottom line according to CXO is that the omen is of dubious help.

    "In summary, evidence from simple tests of a publicly available set of “confirmed” Hindenburg Omens suggests the possibility of usefulness, but reservations regarding small sample size and potential sample bias are strong."

    Maggie
    "That's the problem with being scared to fail. You usually end up failing in the end by default." Life From Scratch, Melissa Ford

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  13. #67

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Simply the Hindenburg has a 25% chance of a major market decline. With all the attention it may effect the short term dynamics, but the intermediate term to long term seem to show real risk.

    FOMC is posturing in advance, hmmmmm. I love statements like GDP was revised down but was better than expected. My take, you were wrong not once but twice. Why should we believe you this time?
    Socrates: "Democracy, which is a charming form of government, full of variety and disorder, and dispensing a sort of equality to equals and unequaled alike."

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  15. #68

    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Quote Originally Posted by Show-me View Post
    FOMC is posturing in advance, hmmmmm. I love statements like GDP was revised down but was better than expected. My take, you were wrong not once but twice. Why should we believe you this time?
    Agree. This is their way of saying, the market was selling off on the rumor of a downward revision, but you can buy the news since it was not as bad as we thought. But if that's the good news, we could be in trouble.

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  17. #69

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Love or hate the Hindenburg but take a step back and look where the majors are right now compared to August 13th when we got our first Omen alert. Yeah. Bulls haven't got much of an argument here as the market has done NOTHING since then.

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  19. #70

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Yesterday, internally, there were 248 new NYSE highs and only 9 lows. Someting is happening under the radar.

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  21. #71

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Socrates: "Democracy, which is a charming form of government, full of variety and disorder, and dispensing a sort of equality to equals and unequaled alike."

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  23. #72

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    Default Re: The Hindenburg Omen

    Albertarocks' TA Discussions

    This guy is saying the first official HO signal since August, 2010 came today, and just barely at the close. I followed the blog pretty closely today as he updated a few times throughout with the Highs/Lows count. Seems pretty legit. And the stats he posts are pretty scary. They are based on past performance of the signal, so no speculation. Here is his clearest description of the odds:

    Major Crash - 27% probability
    Selling panic of at least 10-15% - 39% probability
    Sharp decline of at least 8-10% - 54% probability
    Meaningful decline of at least 5-8% - 77% probability
    Mild decline of at least 2-5% - 92% probability
    The HO signal is an outright miss - 7.7% probability (one out of 13 times)


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