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Thread: Rod's Account Talk

  1. #937

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Nice signature line, Rod.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  3. #938

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    Thumbs up Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Hello All,

    Long time, no see! As you old-TSPTalk timers know, I've been in a buy-n-hold pattern since shortly after the 2008 crash.

    As the "buy-n-hold guinea pig" , these have been my returns since the crash:

    2008: (I bailed to the (G) Fund on 22 Jan 2008, completely avoiding the crash.)

    4.44%


    2009: (I reentered the market on 20 Feb 2009. My last IFT was on 2 Nov 2009: 60(C) 40(S).)

    4.95%


    2010:

    21.16%


    2011:

    -0.28%


    2012:

    17.14%


    2013:

    35.03%


    2014:

    11.24%


    2015:

    -0.35%


    2016:

    13.84%


    2017:

    6.97% (YTD)


    Although TSPTalk.com's slogan is "Friends Don't Let Friends Buy and Hold", I've been quite satisfied with my buy-n-hold strategy over the past 9 years. Without contributing a cent, (because I am unable to) I have more than doubled my TSP account balance since I retired from the USAF on 1 Sep 2011.

    I am now contemplating bailing to the (G) Fund because I sense that we are in for a rough summer. I could be wrong, though. But, the last time I felt this strongly about bailing to the (G) Fund was 8 months prior to the 2008 crash. And you must admit, we are overdue for a correction (and due for the Bear). The last correction was when the S&P 500 dropped 15% from Nov 2015 to Feb 2016. (It dropped only 5.40% during BREXIT, but gained it all back, and then some, within a matter of days.)

    Our last Bear was Oct 2007 - Mar 2009. Here is some Bear history before that:

    Mar 2000 - Oct 2002
    Aug 1987 - Dec 1987
    Nov 1980 - Aug 1982
    Jan 1973 - Oct 1974

    You can view more correction and Bear history here:
    https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbeartables.pdf

    Unless we are repeating another 13-year Bull run (Dec 1987 - Mar 2000), we are definitely due for the Bear. But, as I said, I could be wrong and we could have 5 more years riding the Bull.

    Should we believe what Warren Buffet said in Feb, ""We are not in bubble territory or anything of the sort..." ""Measured against interest rates, stocks are actually on the cheap side..." ???

    Of course, interest rates are on the rise. Expect another hike in June, possibly followed by another one before the year is out.

    Source for Buffet quote:

    Warren Buffett: Red-hot market not in a bubble, still looks 'cheap' - Feb. 27, 2017

    In the meantime, I'll let you know if I decide to bail to (G) in order to preserve my overall 114% returns since 2008. BTW, compare my 114% overall returns since 2008 with some of the seasoned investors on this forum. Go to the AutoTracker history and add(subtract) their annual returns since 2008.

    Did my buy-n-hold strategy beat them out?

    I calculated the numbers of one very popular poster. His overall returns since 2008 was 55.59%. That almost convinces me to maintain my buy-n-hold strategy!

    Happy Investing and God bless.

    +><>
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  5. #939

    Join Date
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    657

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Great post and return!

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  7. #940

    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Thanks for stopping by, Rod!
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  9. #941

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Thanks for stopping by, Rod!
    Hi Tom! It's good to "see" you. I hope all is well with you and yours!
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  11. #942

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by pmaloney View Post
    Great post and return!
    Thank you!
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  13. #943

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Gonna change your name to Birchrod!!! Nice to hear from you Rod!!!
    1/13/2021
    LS CRUDE Oil
    =$52.91 a Barrel, Daily Status -$.30

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  15. #944

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nnuut View Post
    Gonna change your name to Birchrod!!! Nice to hear from you Rod!!!
    Ha! Good to hear from you too!
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  17. #945

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Nice to hear from you Rod. I know life is hectic but stop by a little more often.
    May the force be with us.


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  19. #946

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    Nice to hear from you Rod. I know life is hectic but stop by a little more often.
    Thank you, Brother. Good to hear from you too.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  21. #947

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    Question Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Disclaimer: If my math is wrong, blame my meds, and not me.


    At times, I'm rather simplistic in my technical analysis. While contemplating my move back into (G), I've been studying the summertime gains/losses in the Dow since 1998. The parameters I use for "summertime" are 1 Jun - 1 Sep. Here are the Dow's gains/losses for that time frame since 1998:

    1998: -1,109.39, Loss of 12%

    1999: -633.85, Loss of 6%

    2000: +119.42, Gain of 1%

    2001: -1,654.84, Loss of 16%

    2002: -1,650.33, Loss of 18%

    2003: +289.62, Gain of 3%

    2004: +355.21, Gain of 3%

    2005: +293.73, Gain of 3%

    2006: +528.85, Gain of 5%

    2007: +487.01, Gain of 4%

    2008: -499.35, Loss of 4%

    2009: +1,265.28, Gain of 15%

    2010: +1,014.03, Gain of 10%

    2011: -1,500.96, Loss of 12%

    2012: +557.04, Gain of 4%

    2013: +220.61, Gain of 1%

    2014: +216.30, Gain of 1%

    2015: -1,334.81, Loss of 8%

    2016: +378.16, Gain of 2%


    Overall, summertime losses have certainly overwhelmed summertime gains these past nearly 20 years:

    Losses = 76%
    Gains = 52%

    Double-digit losses = 4
    Double-digit gains = 2

    But, we've had only 3 summertime losses since 2008, and a total of 4 summertime losses since 2002. We've had 11 summertime gains since 2002.

    Might the Trump Rally continue into the summer? According to my Dow summertime history, it seems we are in for summertime gains, even if it ends up being a small percentage. Given that I have gained 114% in my TSP since 2008, I should be willing to take that risk and remain 60(C) 40(S). But, will I?

    Contemplation continues...

    God bless

    +><>
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  23. #948

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    Default Re: Rod's Account Talk

    Just making a note to myself that I sensed this negative action about 13 days prior to it occurring (see 4 May post). At best, this is the beginning of a pull back, with a little over 1% loss so far. But who knows, we could bounce back tomorrow. Just don't panic out there. Hold your positions if you're in... and don't sell at a loss.

    God Bless
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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