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Thread: TopNotch Account Talk

  1. #37

    Join Date
    Jun 2018
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    Military so all over
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    81

    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Double! Haha. We will see September never seems to perform well. BUT then again neither does August and look at the results. Sitting G served me well the past few days. The problem I have always had is when to get back in. I think I am going to have to start getting back in after a certain % drop as I have gotten out at the right times this year it's just the getting back that I have not timed so well. As of today, I am beating that S fund finally. I want to beat it for the year so today or tomorrow may be a good time to think about dropping back in and putting it on auto-pilot till the end of the year. I am thinking this will be one of our last drops for the year. We will see though.
    -Top
    TopNotch

  2.  
  3. #38

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    Cleveland, Ohio
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    10,699

    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by TopNotch View Post
    Double! Haha. We will see September never seems to perform well. BUT then again neither does August and look at the results. Sitting G served me well the past few days. The problem I have always had is when to get back in. I think I am going to have to start getting back in after a certain % drop as I have gotten out at the right times this year it's just the getting back that I have not timed so well. As of today, I am beating that S fund finally. I want to beat it for the year so today or tomorrow may be a good time to think about dropping back in and putting it on auto-pilot till the end of the year. I am thinking this will be one of our last drops for the year. We will see though.
    -Top
    I wish we had 3 or 4 IFT's then it wouldn't be such a problem deciding if we should stay in or get out.
    May the force be with us.

  4.  
  5. #39

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    2 keeps you disciplined. :P

    8/28 the day I got out of the markets as of the close.

    S&P 500 close: 2897

    C: -0.65%,S: -1.01%




    If you got out on the 29th you should see a bigger increase. 1% should be the mark to get back into the markets. With these numbers, it puts Topnotch ahead of all funds for the year. My biggest problem is never knowing when to get back into the market. I think a 1% drop should justify it. If you could do this just three times a year you would be 3% of all funds which is quite good. Waiting now for my chance to jump in and hoping I can get 1% or more... 0.0 we will see I usually miss it and get about half a percent...

    Currently 100% G (short-term move)
    ITF's left for September 2
    Yearly return 12.34% TSP
    -Top
    TopNotch

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  7. #40

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    What a great 3rd quarter! Stocks were doing just great. Pulled off a wonderful Swing trade move for September putting my account above all TSP funds for the year! Good stuff. With some transition coming up I am planning to become a buy and holder for Q4 but I expect we are not out of the woods yet for stocks. Long-term charts still look great but the short term charts are still pretty weak no improvement from September. Still with moving to Hawaii this next quarter I won't have the time to watch the tech charts enough to make swing moves as they take time and research to get them right (see below ). Hopefully, I will be set up well enough by the end of November to catch the last part of the year until then I will stick in equities and hopefully remain above all TSP funds for the year. As that is the primary goal for me.

    Swing move for September which I thought would last a few days took most of the month 0.0

    transferr.PNG



    Currently 100% S
    ITF's left for October 2
    Yearly return 12.75% TSP
    -Top
    TopNotch

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  9. #41

    Join Date
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    Illinois :(
    Posts
    467

    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    👍nice work

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  11. #42

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    Jun 2018
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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Well well well. My 1.50% swing trade doesn't feel so good anymore with markets dropping almost 4.5% lol. Aw well.
    TopNotch

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  13. #43

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Took a break for much of 4th quarter! And what a crazy quarter to take a break for. Goes back to my saying that markets can do anything! I think it kept a lot of tech traders on their toes and I ended up doing better than the S fund but still in the red for 2018. Crazy year! Two 10% drops in a single year is almost unheard of until it happens.

    This year we have been soaking up the gains in the S fund after the losses in December. With a 6% cap we moved 100% G to hopefully take advantage of those gains and not get greedy. I hope I don't get burned lol. Also this will be my first real year (full year) with auto tracker I am not super good at it but I will give it a go. Being able to compare to others is important for learning and growth.

    Currently 100% G
    ITF's left for JAN 1
    Yearly return 7.60% (Auto track) 5.92% my tracker
    -Top
    TopNotch

  14.  
  15. #44

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Looking towards the end of the first quarter. Much better than the 4th quarter of 18 eh? I didn't see as much volatility as I thought for FEB or MAR as markets continued to rise. That being said we saw two big events last two weeks. FED and YIELD. I talk a lot more about these in the weekly video that I put out. So far I started out slow for 2018 but I think there will be room to catch up especially with the F fund now being a bit more competitive when swing trading. Yet to be seen but I think we could start to see the left shoulder form for a bullish pattern. I will have to wait and see. Going with that attitude I will make a SHORT term move to the F until the markets are done with consolidating from this correction/bear market plunge? To get a clear picture moving forward. Hope to take some advantage from the consolidation.

    Currently 100% F
    ITF's left for MAR 1
    Yearly return 8.10% (Auto track) 7.35% my tracker
    -Top
    TopNotch

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  17. #45

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Been around for some time and instead of explain my post of what I am doing with my account. I just will put in my video here. I use CCM, tsp talk, finviz, and free stock charts to make my decisions with my TSP. When I say we I mean I... I always mess that up. I'll take any advice from market TSP vets to try and do better with my account. Thanks.

    https://youtu.be/j7Blz4s_NrI

    Currently 100% S
    IFT's left for MAY 2
    Yearly return 11.60% (auto-tracker) 11.80% (my tracker)
    -Top
    TopNotch


  18.  
  19. #46

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    Jun 2018
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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Finally saw markets take a bit of a break. How long will it last? We will have to wait and see. My move made on the 9th of May was a good move THUS far... Problem is you have to get out at the right time AND get back in at the right time. With only two ITF's a month it makes it very hard. I am hoping to make up some ground when I get back in. Watching and waiting.
    Video for the week.



    Currently 100% G
    IFT's left for MAY 1
    Yearly return 9.21% (auto-tracker) 9.40% (my tracker)
    -Top
    TopNotch

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  21. #47

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    Markets had a down week this week. Glad I made my move when I did. I am not sure when I should be getting back in though. That is half the battle.

    4_zps6qfiga2g.jpg

    Based off Friday's close I should have gained over 3% on the markets! That is a really good move and usually I like to shoot for about 2%. I still don't see a good entry point though and I will wait a little longer. With AGG or the F fund picking up nicely I may move there for SHORT term since I have one move left this month and be ready for next month. If you want more info on my moves or why I did them you can check out my video. https://youtu.be/rMN2kbfPV4Q

    Currently 100% G
    IFT's left for MAY 1
    Yearly return 9.25% (auto-tracker) 9.44% (my tracker)
    -Top
    TopNotch

  22.  
  23. #48

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    Default Re: TopNotch Account Talk

    A pretty nasty May for our C,S, and I funds. Tech charts don't look like we are getting out anytime soon BUT tech charts also prove to be slow when charts rally back hard. Quick Volatility can take the best by surprise. TopNotch (me) did pretty well this month by moving funds from S to G around the 9th of May and they from G to F towards the end of May. TopNotch is now above all TSP funds except the C and S. We are getting very close to overtaking those funds as well. It would be important though to ensure we capture what we worked hard for on the month of May but I am not really ready just yet to jump back in. That could be a mistake. In my video this week I go through why charts are not looking the best tech wise. Also I will try and include a picture that paints a clear idea of just how well TopNotch moves worked out.


    Below is a picture showing just how well TopNotch did. I can't say it was all me there is always a little luck in the equation



    Currently 100% F
    IFT's left for JUNE 2
    Yearly return 9.87% (auto-tracker) 9.99% (my tracker)
    -Top
    Last edited by TopNotch; 06-03-2019 at 01:42 AM.

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TopNotch Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
TopNotch Account Talk
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