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Thread: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

  1. #49

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for July:

    Rate: 3.9%
    12 MMA: 4.07%
    Crossover: rate still below 12 MMA
    Trend: still going down
    That means no change. We are still in the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  2.  
  3. #50

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for August:

    Rate: 3.9%
    12 MMA: 4.03%
    Crossover: rate still below 12 MMA
    Trend: still going down
    That means no change. We are still in the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  4.  
  5. #51

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for September:

    Rate: 3.7%
    12 MMA: 3.98%
    Crossover: rate still below 12 MMA
    Trend: still going down
    That means no change. We are still in the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  6.  
  7. #52

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Well, now that it looks like I can post again I'll go ahead and these entries after the fact.

    Here is the unemployment rate for October:

    Rate: 3.7%
    12 MMA: 3.95%
    Crossover: rate still below 12 MMA
    Trend: still going down
    That means no change. We are still in the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  8.  
  9. #53

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for November:

    Rate: 3.7%
    12 MMA: 3.92%
    Crossover: rate still below 12 MMA
    Trend: still going down
    That means no change. We are still in the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  10.  
  11. #54

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for December:

    Rate: 3.9%
    12 MMA: 3.89%
    Crossover: rate now above 12 MMA
    Trend: still going down
    For those only looking at the crossover that means you now want to get out of the equities and transition into your less risky investments. For those only/also looking at the trend there is no change yet. We are still fully invested.

    Note1: Since looking at the numbers last December, the numbers for 10/18, 8/18, 3/18 & 11/17 have been corrected/changed. Those figure into our 12 Month Moving Average. If you use the old (uncorrected) numbers we don't have a crossover yet and everyone is still fully invested. It's up to you.

    Note2: I checked the data back for 10 years today and found corrections/changes all the way back to Aug 2013. That means it's not only the recent figures that are corrected. I had been checking back 6 months to a year every month. This seams to to be new since last month. There are also corrections to corrections as the correction for Sep & Oct 2016 that was documented in post #24 of this thread has now been reverted back to what it was originally. That's the one thing I don't like about this system -- the historical values change in the future. That doesn't do any good for us making decisions now.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%


  12.  
  13. #55

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for January:

    Rate: 4.0%
    12 MMA: 3.88%
    Crossover: rate now above 12 MMA
    Trend: still going down but leveling out
    For those only looking at the crossover that means that like last month you want to be out of the equities and in your less risky investments.

    For those only/also looking at the trend there is no change yet but that line is getting pretty flat. We are still fully invested but be prepaired to jump.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  14.  
  15. #56

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    On a Florida beach
    Posts
    1,138

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Oh my, Cactus I just rediscovered this thread for the first time in 2-1/2 years! I'd completely forgotten that you were tracking this, great job.
    One comment, the signal to get out of stocks is two parts, first you look to see if the UE rate moves above the 12-month moving average, which it did today...that's step one...step 2 is to look at the trend of the S&P 500. If the month-end S&P 500 drops below the 10-month moving average (and I contacted the author of that article several years ago and he confirmed that he thinks it's best to use the month-end S&P 500 numbers, not intra-month daily numbers so you don't get whipsawed), then you have a confirmed sell signal. The month-end S&P 500 price fell below the 10-month moving average at the end of December, and was still below on 1/31/2019, so I'd say that step 2 is also satisfied and today we got a sell signal. Per my spreadsheet it's the first sell signal since the beginning of December 2007. I need to go back through your thread regarding revised UE rate numbers since I hadn't documented those...a month ago I had the UE rate moving average at 3.90%, a dead tie with the moving average, and wasn't sure how to handle that...but it appears you had the moving average at 3.89%...really splitting hair there but staying in the market for January sure made a huge difference!

    Update - OK, now I see, the BLS numbers for some previous months changed here; https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000 and when I plug in the changed numbers it looks to me like the sell signal actually came a month ago with the December report, since the 12-mo moving average was 3.892, and the December UE rate was above that at 3.9%.
    Last edited by Tsunami; 02-01-2019 at 08:07 PM. Reason: Added update

  16.  
  17. #57

    Default Re: Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

    Here is the unemployment rate for February:

    Rate: 3.8%
    12 MMA: 3.86%
    Crossover: now back below 12 MMA
    Trend: still going down
    Well the crossover is now back below the 12 MMA but numbers wise we are leveling off. Keep an eye on this because it could easily switch back next month with little change in the numbers. We are right there on the line.

    As for now we are back in the market.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  18.  
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