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Thread: Can't decide/Premium Services

  1. #13

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    Default Re: Can't decide/Premium Services

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Not to disparage uptrend, because he certainly knows what he's doing, but sometimes following the "hot hand" means you are buying the top. uptrend was up just over 5% last year while the s-fund gained over 38%. In 2012 SWAVET had the top return. This year he's on the bottom. Sometimes you get lucky with your moves. Sometimes you get unlucky. I'd say look for consistency. Either that or follow SWAVET. He'll probably be on the top next year. Buy low, sell high.
    Now that is how a "true" contrarian trader thinks!

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  3. #14

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    Default Re: Can't decide/Premium Services

    There may be some solid data to support your theory too Tom. SWAVET lost 20.90% in 2011, but in 2012 he topped the tracker at 31.70% while Uptrend was near the bottom with a return of -5.77%. Hmmmmmmmmm

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  5. #15

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    Default Re: Can't decide/Premium Services

    It would be nice to see a 5 year return for current members with greater then 5 years on the tracker. Add a 10 year return after 2016. Just a thought...
    CURRENT ALLOCATION = 100% S
    Fear is the greatest buy signal ever seen in the stock markets - Birchtree

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  7. #16

    Default Re: Can't decide/Premium Services

    Quote Originally Posted by ATCJeff View Post
    It would be nice to see a 5 year return for current members with greater then 5 years on the tracker. Add a 10 year return after 2016. Just a thought...
    i joined in 2009 with partial year returns. 2010-2014 should make for 5 full years. i think i average about 7%.
    100g

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  9. #17

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    Default Re: Can't decide/Premium Services

    Quote Originally Posted by ATCJeff View Post
    It would be nice to see a 5 year return for current members with greater then 5 years on the tracker. Add a 10 year return after 2016. Just a thought...
    Just checked, we have returns for 2006. So we could have a 10 year after next year.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION = 100% S
    Fear is the greatest buy signal ever seen in the stock markets - Birchtree

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  11. #18

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    Default Re: Can't decide/Premium Services

    Quote Originally Posted by burrocrat View Post
    i joined in 2009 with partial year returns. 2010-2014 should make for 5 full years. i think i average about 7%.
    My 5 year return is 71.24%. That's an average of 14.248%.
    CURRENT ALLOCATION = 100% S
    Fear is the greatest buy signal ever seen in the stock markets - Birchtree


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  13. #19

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    Default Re: Can't decide/Premium Services

    Quote Originally Posted by czapor1967 View Post
    I'm right there with you catak, I've been thinking about this too. although my thoughts are mostly with the Sentiment Survey, since it's been pretty stout for the last few years, and I followed it out of a -16% hole that I got stuck in my very first year on the AT! (back when it was free) But, could someone help me out with this? is it really worth paying a couple hundred bucks a year? I guess what I'm trying to figure out is if the premiums make more than they cost per year... I certainly wouldn't mind paying a couple of hundred to make a few hundred, or more!
    No question. Especially if you have a sizable account in place.

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  15. #20

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    Default Re: Can't decide/Premium Services

    Quote Originally Posted by ATCJeff View Post
    It would be nice to see a 5 year return for current members with greater then 5 years on the tracker. Add a 10 year return after 2016. Just a thought...
    Here here! It took me too long to crank out those stats, but it would be nice if we could display a long-term 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ect AT performance. Tom could crank that out in like 5 minutes!

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  17. #21

    Default Re: Can't decide/Premium Services

    Unfortunately I only have 2010 data and later saved in the database. But that is enough for 5 years 2010,11,12,13, and 14. Anything earlier is just saved to spreadsheets and PDF's and would have to manually figured to come up with an average.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  19. #22

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    Default Re: Can't decide/Premium Services

    I've been tracking my account since 2004. My high was last year at 37.08% and my low was 2008 at 12.82%. My 10 year return was 136.29% and the average is 13.269%. Other than the negative year I have had only 2 years under a double digit profit. This may be the 3rd year under a double digit win. Let's hope the Santa Rally continues.
    May the force be with us.

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  21. #23

    Default Re: Can't decide/Premium Services

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Not to disparage uptrend, because he certainly knows what he's doing, but sometimes following the "hot hand" means you are buying the top. uptrend was up just over 5% last year while the s-fund gained over 38%. In 2012 SWAVET had the top return. This year he's on the bottom. Sometimes you get lucky with your moves. Sometimes you get unlucky. I'd say look for consistency. Either that or follow SWAVET. He'll probably be on the top next year. Buy low, sell high.
    Yes... And Uptrend is one of the few who jumped in on Tuesday to make a killing this week! Hats off to you Uptrend. As for SWAVET...he's had some very good years. Have not seen him on the site... Wondering if he is still posting moves, or worse maybe he has health problems. Hopefully not.
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 1-19-21=20S, 80G//1-7-21=100%S/ 12-31-20=100G/ ChartLinks=Pg241-242,#2892-2895// www.theepochtimes.com

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  23. #24

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    Default Re: Can't decide/Premium Services

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Unfortunately I only have 2010 data and later saved in the database. But that is enough for 5 years 2010,11,12,13, and 14. Anything earlier is just saved to spreadsheets and PDF's and would have to manually figured to come up with an average.
    I was just joking, I know you couldn't do it in 5 minutes...6 minutes "tops"

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