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Thread: Alternate LMBF methods

  1. #313

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Will do. Thanks for the heads up.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

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  3. #314

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here is the monthly return as of 12/28/18:

    Date G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
    28-Dec-18 0.23% 1.59% (9.81%) (11.52%) (5.23%)

    The F Fund is the winner for December so the following IFTs take place before noon Monday, 31-Dec-18:

    • LMBF-1 Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
    • LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
    • LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
    • LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
    • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the S Fund to the F Fund
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  4.  
  5. #315

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here are the returns for 2018:

    G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    Jan 0.20% (1.14%) 5.72% 3.34% 5.00% 5.72% 3.34% 3.34% 5.72% 5.72%
    Feb 0.21% (0.96%) (3.69%) (3.79%) (5.07%) (3.69%) (3.79%) (3.79%) (3.69%) (3.69%)
    Mar 0.24% 0.65% (2.55%) 0.69% (0.76%) 0.24% 0.24% 0.24% 0.24% 0.65%
    Apr 0.23% (0.73%) 0.38% 0.28% 2.01% (0.73%) (0.73%) (0.73%) (0.73%) (0.73%)
    May 0.24% 0.73% 2.41% 4.85% (2.13%) (2.13%) (2.13%) 4.85% 0.73% (2.13%)
    Jun 0.24% (0.10%) 0.61% 0.86% (1.20%) 0.86% 0.86% 0.86% (0.10%) 0.86%
    Jul 0.25% 0.04% 3.72% 1.64% 2.45% 1.64% 1.64% 1.64% 0.04% 1.64%
    Aug 0.26% 0.67% 3.26% 4.57% (1.91%) 3.26% 4.57% 4.57% 0.67% 3.26%
    Sep 0.24% (0.62%) 0.57% (1.76%) 0.91% (1.76%) (1.76%) (1.76%) (0.62%) (1.76%)
    Oct 0.26% (0.78%) (6.84%) (10.06%) (7.94%) (7.94%) (7.94%) (10.06%) (0.78%) (7.94%)
    Nov 0.26% 0.62% 2.04% 1.92% (0.13%) 0.26% 0.26% 0.26% 0.26% 0.26%
    Dec 0.26% 1.84% (9.03%) (10.70%) (4.82%) (10.70%) (10.70%) (10.70%) (10.70%) (10.70%)
    YTD 2.91% 0.15% (4.41%) (9.26%) (13.43%) (15.00%) (15.95%) (12.02%) (9.36%) (14.35%)

    What a disaster this year has been. Not only have all TSP equity Funds finished in the red, almost all LMBF-1 systems finished worse off than any TSP Fund. The only ones that came out ahead was SIM & CI>S which only beat out the I Fund. That's not much to brag about.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%


  6.  
  7. #316

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here are the 3 Year Average of our Funds and LMBF-1 systems

    3 Year (2016 – 18) G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    Mean 2.35% 2.29% 9.81% 8.44% 4.70% 5.50% 4.90% 4.72% 6.21% 5.25%
    Standard Deviation 0.44% 1.56% 10.82% 12.54% 15.96% 14.55% 14.80% 11.84% 11.05% 13.98%
    Annualized Return 2.35% 2.28% 9.26% 7.67% 3.50% 4.42% 3.78% 4.01% 5.61% 4.25%
    Total Return 7.22% 7.01% 30.44% 24.81% 10.86% 13.87% 11.76% 12.53% 17.78% 13.31%
    Looks like over the last 3 years you would have been better off Buy & Holding the C or S Funds than any of the LMBF-1 systems.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  8.  
  9. #317

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here are the 5 Year Average of our Funds and LMBF-1 systems

    5 Year (2014 – 18) G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    Mean 2.28% 2.90% 8.93% 6.04% 1.66% 0.24% 1.06% 1.32% 2.82% 0.57%
    Standard Deviation 0.36% 2.32% 9.31% 10.70% 13.00% 13.39% 13.08% 10.67% 9.87% 12.71%
    Annualized Return 2.28% 2.88% 8.53% 5.49% 0.88% (0.65%) 0.20% 0.75% 2.35% (0.24%)
    Total Return 11.93% 15.25% 50.58% 30.62% 4.49% (3.21%) 1.01% 3.80% 12.32% (1.17%)
    Looks like over the last 5 years you basically would have been better off Buy & Holding any of the TSP Funds than following the LMBF-1 systems. The only one that came out ahead was "LMBF-1 SIM" which beat the G & I Funds.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  10.  
  11. #318

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    Here are the 10 Year Average of our Funds and LMBF-1 systems:

    10Year(2009 – 18) G F C S I LMBF-1 C>S CI>S SIM G>F
    Mean 2.30% 3.78% 13.70% 14.76% 7.52% 8.11% 10.18% 11.89% 10.10% 8.67%
    Standard Deviation 0.47% 3.01% 10.99% 15.69% 14.95% 12.84% 14.16% 14.63% 10.96% 12.49%
    Annualized Return 2.30% 3.73% 13.17% 13.68% 6.48% 7.30% 9.21% 10.91% 9.53% 7.89%
    Total Return 25.51% 44.27% 244.55% 260.29% 87.38% 102.21% 141.37% 181.66% 148.56% 113.79%
    Looks like over the last 10 years you would have been better off Buy & Holding the C or S Funds than any of the LMBF-1 systems. What happened? Well the 2008 crash fell out of our data. Maybe it will take another crash for this system to come out ahead. I Don't know. This year was a disaster and any TSP Fund beat all the LMBF-1 Systems. Is anybody still following LMBF-1? It doesn't seam worth it to me.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  12.  
  13. #319

    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    The Woodlands, TX
    Posts
    288

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    I still follow... most of the time but.. long time analysis is bearing out that Alternate LMBF is not bearing fruit. May be time to put it to rest.

  14.  
  15. #320

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    For those still following this thread, here are the IFTs for February.

    The S Fund is the winner for January so the following IFTs take place before noon eastern tomorrow, 31-Jan-19:

    • LMBF-1 Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
    • LMBF-1 SIM Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
    • LMBF-1 C>S Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
    • LMBF-1 CI>S Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund
    • LMBF-1 G>F Changes from the F Fund to the S Fund

    We all go back to S. This was a rough month to be out of the market as it gave back some of December's losses.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  16.  
  17. #321

    Default Re: Alternate LMBF methods

    The S Fund is the winner for February so there are no changes for March. All methods continue the S-Fund for March.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%, 2014 -7.39%,5Yr Avg 1.56%

  18.  
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
Alternate LMBF methods
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
Alternate LMBF methods
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
Alternate LMBF methods
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)
Alternate LMBF methods
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)